Oregon football roundtable for CFP rematch vs. Indiana Hoosiers

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It feels as if the entire season has come down to this for the Oregon Ducks, who match up against the Indiana Hoosiers on Friday night in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. The proving ground will be the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, and the prize will be a spot in the national championship game against Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes.

Talk about a big game.

89 days after falling to Indiana in the regular season, Dan Lanning and the Ducks have a chance to avenge their only loss of the season and keep their magical year alive, but it’s not going to be easy. The team is dealing with injuries, as freshman RB Jordon Davison is out with a broken collarbone, and RB Noah Whittington has been listed as ‘questionable’ for the game. However, they’ve dealt with injuries throughout the year, and that hasn’t been an issue.

As we head into this game, we’ve broken down Oregon’s RB rotation, looked at some top Indiana players, and previewed some keys to victory for Oregon.

Now it’s time to make some predictions.

To preview the game, we go through our weekly roundtable with the writers from Ducks Wire to offer our opinions and predictions for what’s to come. Here’s another edition of the roundtable.

Texas Tech Takeaways

Question: Oregon’s quarterfinal win over Texas Tech was dominant and impressive. What was your biggest takeaway from that game?

Zachary Neel: I think I was just most impressed with the defense, and how utterly dominant the front-seven was. The secondary did great as well, but the front seven manhandled Tech’s offensive line and got after Behren Morton. It was the best defensive showing I’ve seen from an Oregon team in a long time.

Don Smalley:That when the defense comes to play, they can be the best defense in the country. I know Texas Tech had a big layoff, but shutting out that offense is quite the feat. They’ll need a similar effort against Indiana.

Paul White: That Oregon’s identity is that they have no identity. This team just seems to have a knack for morphing into whatever the game calls for. They can win a shootout — or they can win a low-scoring, defensive game. They can beat you by running the ball, or Dante Moore can beat you through the air. This team can win games in so many ways.

Bjorn Bergstrom: Man, the defensive performance was outstanding. It can’t be understated how impressive it was to hold a team averaging 42.5 points per game coming in to just zero, without much of a chance at any point. They suffocated the Red Raiders.

Peach Bowl Confidence

Question: At long last, we have the rematch against Indiana, this time with a spot in the championship on the line. In general, how do you feel ahead of this game? Where is your confidence level?

Zachary Neel: I’m not going to lie, my confidence has waned a little bit over the last couple of days with the injury news. I still have total belief that Oregon can win this game, and I still think they really might; I just know it’s gotten much more difficult.

Don Smalley:I feel really good about the game. This team is a lot better than it was the first time around, and it’s battle-tested. Oregon has proven it can beat you in a lot of different ways, and that makes them difficult to prepare for.

Paul White: I’ve definitely had more confidence going into games than I do for this one. That’s not to say that the Ducks won’t win, but these teams are so evenly matched that I could see the game coming down to the final seconds.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I don’t feel awesome about it. With the way Indiana played against Alabama, they’re gonna come in as confident as can be, especially knowing that they already beat these Ducks. It is tough to beat the same team twice, which gives me pause, but I don’t love Oregon’s chances, if I’m being honest.

Oregon’s Biggest Improvement

Question: It’s been 89 days since Oregon lost to Indiana in Week 7 of the season. Where do you think this team has improved the most since then?

Zachary Neel: I simply think this team knows itself better than it did a couple of months ago. Dante Moore is more experienced, the defense is better, and it knows what it does well, and Oregon knows how dynamic it can be on offense with the emergence of Jamari Johnson and the use of its 12-personnel. This is not the same team that played in October.

Don Smalley:The defense has improved the most since then. Oregon showed they don’t have to blitz in order to get pressure on the quarterback, and the secondary is the best secondary the Ducks have had in the last 30 years. They’re that impressive.

Paul White: Not letting things spiral out of control. We saw in the first game that Oregon had a chance to drive down the field and tie the game, but instead, they turned it over, which essentially ended the game. Since then, we’ve seen this team consistently find ways to pull out close games at the end.

Bjorn Bergstrom: It’s a bit of a cop out, but they’ve been much better in pass protection since allowing six sacks against the Hoosiers. I was eager to see how their pass protection was against Texas Tech, and while there was some pressure, Dante Moore got the ball out of his hands quicker and had more of a plan when pressure was coming. I expect the Ducks to handle the pressure much better in the semis.

Judging Indiana’s Offense

Question: Looking at the Indiana offense, who are you game-planning against the most if you’re Oregon going into this game?

Zachary Neel: It’s all about early-down success if you’re Oregon’s defense. One thing that is going to get you in trouble is allowing Indiana to have a lot of third-and-short situations, where the entire playbook opens up for them. That’s when Fernando Mendoza can truly show why he was the rightful Heisman Trophy winner, and win the game with his arm and his legs.

Don Smalley: It would be easy to say quarterback Fernando Mendoza, but it’s Fernando Mendoza. He’s the Heisman trophy winner for a reason. They need to pressure him and keep him in the pocket.

Paul White: Elijah Sarratt. He hasn’t been exceptional in the last few months, but he killed the Ducks in the first matchup. Taking him away will go a long way towards slowing down Fernando Mendoza and the offense.

Bjorn Bergstrom: It all starts with limiting the run game. Ohio State held them to 118 yards and 3.5 yards per carry in the B10 title game, resulting in the Hoosiers scoring just 13 points. That’s the key, as it lowers the ceiling of the passing attack.

Judging Indiana’s Defense

Question: Same question, but for the defense?

Zachary Neel: Run the ball. I know that’s going to be tougher for the Ducks without Davison, and potentially with a limited Whittington, but the Ducks actually had a lot of success on the ground vs. Indiana in the first matchup. The problem is that they got away from it and became pass-happy in the second half.

Don Smalley:I think the game plan for the Oregon offense needs to be similar as it was for the Texas Tech game, but the Hoosiers’ front seven isn’t as good as the Red Raiders. Oregon HAS to run the ball effectively in order to set up play action pass down the field. Running for 70 total yards this time will mean the season is over.

Paul White: Oregon should keep their eyes on Aidan Fisher. Similar to Jacob Rodriguez with Texas Tech, Fisher moves all around the field and impacts the defense in a variety of ways. He could wreck the game if the Ducks don’t have a good plan for him.

Bjorn Bergstrom: Has to be pass protection. If Moore gets sacked six times again, the Ducks’ season will be over.

A Championship Look-Ahead

Question: Not to look too far ahead, but IF Oregon beats Indiana and makes it to the championship, which team would you rather see: Miami or Ole Miss?

Zachary Neel: The storylines from a potential Dan Lanning vs. Mario Cristobal championship is too rich to pass up. In the end, I’m in the content business, so I choose that. Gotta beat Indiana first, though.

Don Smalley:Ole Miss. I don’t want to face Miami on their home field for all the marbles and I think Oregon will have trouble against Miami’s line on both sides of the ball. I don’t fear Ole Miss’ defense. The Ducks would put up 40+ against the Rebels.

Paul White: I would rather see Miami. I don’t think there are any favorable matchups in the National Championship game, but Ole Miss does have the added motivation of wanting to stick it to Lane Kiffin for abandoning them. Playing against Miami would likely be far less emotional.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I think I’d lean towards Ole Miss, but this is a really tough one. I don’t see the Ducks running the ball well against Miami, but I also don’t see a Carson Beck-led offense scoring many points against the Ducks’ defense. But against Ole Miss, Oregon could probably put up 40 or more. And anytime a team puts up 40 in a national title game, they should like their chances, so I’ll go with the Rebels.

Gambling Corner

Question: Gambling Corner: You get $100 to spread across the point spread (Oregon +3.5), and the over/under (46.5 points). How are you allocating your funds?

Zachary Neel: I feel confident that this will be a low-scoring game, but I don’t feel confident on the outcome. Give me $30 on Oregon +3.5, and $70 on the under.

Don Smalley:$30 on Oregon covering and the rest on the UNDER. This is going to be a slobber-knocker.

Paul White: would stay far away from the moneyline, but I would place $75 on Oregon +4.5 because I think this game will be decided by a field goal or less. My final $25 would go on the over because I see this being a high-scoring game.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I think the value is in Oregon +160, but I don’t anticipate that happening. What I do anticipate is a low-scoring close game, so I’ll put all $100 on the under.

Final Score Prediction

Question: Final Score Prediction: Who wins the game?

Zachary Neel: Oregon 23, Indiana 21.

Don Smalley:Oregon wins a close one 24-21, with Atticus kicking a FG at the buzzer for the win.

Paul White: I think the Ducks win a 30-28 nail-biter.

Bjorn Bergstrom: 17-13, Indiana.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon football predictions for CFP game vs. Indiana Hoosiers

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