Oregon State vs Colorado State Predictions, Start Time, Odds: NCAAF Picks for Saturday

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The Oregon State Beavers take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, CO, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. ET on USA.

Oregon State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Colorado State, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.

Here’s my Oregon State vs. Colorado State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.

My Colorado State vs. Oregon State best bet is on the Beavers to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Oregon State vs Colorado State Odds, Spread

• Oregon State vs Colorado State point spread: Oregon State -6.5 (-115), Colorado State +6.5 (-105)
• Oregon State vs Colorado State over/under: 62.5 (-105o / -115u)
• Oregon State vs Colorado State moneyline: Oregon State -250, Colorado State +205

From being a total bummer to watch to becoming one of the country’s most exciting teams, few programs have experienced the turnaround Oregon State has this season.

Under playmaking quarterback Braden Atkinson and the country’s top freshman receiver, Jesse Legree (who Phil Steele didn’t even list on the roster in June!), the Beavers have built a potent passing attack.

JaMarcus Shephard has brought newfound energy and life into this program, and the fan buy-in has been great.

The Atkinson-Legree duo is dangerous enough to win plenty of football games in the Pac-12.

At 5-foot-10, Legree has a ridiculous 25.4 yards per reception, 21.4 average depth of target and 4.40 yards per route run — above players like Rutgers’ KJ Duff and Wake Forest’s Carlos Hernandez.

At times, the Beaver defense has even held up its end of the bargain. Against both Houston and Texas Tech, there were stretches where the secondary put a lid on explosive receivers and bottled up the run game.

Other times, the defensive front has been put on skates and given up chunk play after chunk play. It helped erase a 26-7 deficit to Houston (though Oregon State still lost, 33-20) and keep pace with Texas Tech until the fourth quarter.

But a bit of turnover luck can’t always be counted on. When those turnovers don’t bounce their way, the Beavers are handily outmatched by better offenses. Opponents like Colorado State (this week), Texas State and Boise State present real problems.

But this team might just have enough localized explosiveness to make a run at the Pac-12 title game.

Colorado State’s defense is a certified disaster. Under the previous regime, the Rams had trouble stopping anybody — they finished 126th in Points Per Drive allowed under Tyson Summers.

Head coach Jim Mora decided to retain Summers, brought in 14 defensive transfers, and… Colorado State still rank 124th in Points Per Drive allowed.

Despite jumping out to a 14-0 lead instantly over UTSA (one offensive play run), Colorado State gave up 59 points and lost. Those 59 points allowed brought the Rams to 100 points allowed in their last two games.

With starting quarterback Hauss Hejny out, backup K’saan Farrar played well, throwing for 344 yards. Hejny is questionable for Week 5, but Farrar gives CSU a decent floor, mitigating the drop-off in the point spread this week.

Both players are capable rushers as well, though the offensive line didn’t open up much for Farrar last week.

The line is pretty clear-cut with expectations for this defense. Against versatile offenses with capable quarterbacks, this defense is going to bleed points.

Against hapless offenses — Wyoming was held to 13 points, but also lost four turnovers — it might be able to hold its own. Either way, chalk CSU up as a fun watch if you’re a fan of offense.

Mora did an incredible job at UConn, and now he has far more resources. It took him a few years to really get things going in Storrs, though he did improve the Huskies by five wins right out of the gate in Year 1 (6-7).

Mora inherits a team that went 2-10, gutted the whole thing sans the defensive coordinator, and has a chance to push .500 given the remaining cast of opponents. But it’s going to take lots and lots of points to get there.

Action PRO tabs a lot of sharp moves on both Oregon State and the over. That over money drove the total up from 56.5 to over 61, but it can’t seem to move the number above Oregon State -6.5.

The drop from Hejny to Farrar isn’t insignificant, but correcting the line more than a field goal is probably too aggressive because Farrar proved he can thrive in this system and is a dependable backup.

Weather in Fort Collins looks beautiful and conducive to a high-scoring affair here. But with the juice squeezed clean out of the total after the near six-point move, I’m looking to get involved elsewhere.

Colorado State’s defense hasn’t exceeded expectations once this year. In its two wins, it benefited from a +8 turnover margin.

There’s something to be said about Summers’ aggressive system and its ability to generate turnovers, but against teams that take care of the football (UTSA had zero turnovers), this unit is burnt toast. It even forced a pair of turnovers from BYU and still surrendered 41 points.

Only Western Kentucky has been worse than CSU, allowing an egregious 8.18 yards per play. That’s a product of a lethal combination of steady chunk plays surrendered and 23 plays allowed of 20-plus yards (eighth-most nationally).

Oregon State will be able to move the ball on this team with relative ease.

To avoid laying the points with the Beavers and sweating out a nonsensical back-and-forth affair, I’m going to back Oregon State in a more isolated way this weekend.

Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 34.5 or Better (-120)

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