Oregon vs James Madison Prediction: CFP First Round Preview
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Everyone loves an underdog story, except, apparently, when it comes to 12-seed James Madison facing 5-seed Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Yes, Notre Dame should be in the CFP, and yeah, Duke was the ACC Champion, and no, no one’s giving the Dukes any chance of doing anything, but …
They’re getting a shot, and that’s the point.
Also, look at this as a bit of a reward for the Ducks, whose only crime this season was losing to the only unbeaten team in the nation, the No. 1, Big Ten Champion Indiana Hoosiers.
Oregon vs James Madison: College Football Playoff Preview and Pick
There’s one thing, though, that gets lost in all of the negativity towards what will be the final first round game of this season’s CFP.
James Madison knows how to win.
Curt Cignetti got the ball rolling with the move up from the FCS world, and Bob Chesney has kept it going – he’ll be off to UCLA after JMU’s season is over, and Billy Napier will take over.
This isn’t just some fluky little program. James Madison won the FCS National Championship in 20024 and 2016.
How To Watch Oregon vs James Madison
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
TV: TNT/truTV
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
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Why James Madison Will Win
The run defense is no joke.
This is what the program has been built on since Cignetti first coached it up in the FBS starting in 2022.
The Duke run defense was No. 2 in the nation in 2022, finishing only behind Georgia. The 2023 run D finished fifth, the 2024 version slipped to 26th – but still allowed fewer than 3.5 yards per carry – and this year, it was No. 2 once again, only this time, behind Texas Tech and one spot ahead of Mr. Cignetti’s Indiana squad.
Overall, the defense finished No. 2 – behind Ohio State.
It doesn’t attack as much as it’s great at not letting short runs turn into big ones. It sounds easy, but this group knows how to get to the ball
It starts with a interior that should hold up, even if star tackle Immanuel Bush can’t go. The linebacking corps – led by the terrific Trent Hendrick – gets to everything, and overall, this bunch doesn’t miss a stop.
Everything else works around this. It shouldn’t be a shock that Oregon’s worst day this year running the ball was against Indiana, and it had a hard time in the double-overtime win over Penn State, too.
The JMU offense is great at controlling the tempo, it has a killer running game of its own, and the turnovers aren’t a big enough problem to worry about. However …
Why Oregon Will Win
It’s one thing to deal with a step up in competition in the regular season, and it’s a whole other problem dealing with a top program that was No. 1 in the nation last year and is on a mission to get past the instant exit from last year’s College Football Playoff.
This is just the fifth game against a Power Four program for James Madison in its five years as an FBS program. It lost twice to Louisville, slipped past an awful Virginia team in 2023 that went 3-9, and boatraced a North Carolina squad with no defense last year in a wild 70-50 blast of a show.
What happened when the Dukes faced Louisville this year? They came up with their worst offensive output of the season – just 263 yards – turned it over twice, and couldn’t keep pressing, giving up 22 unanswered points after getting up 14-6 early in the second half.
This really is a good James Madison team, but it struggled when it couldn’t get the ground game going. The three one-score wins and the loss to the Cardinals came on four of the five worst days this season on the ground.
Oregon will try to strike quickly. Possible No. 1 overall draft pick Dante Moore should get just enough time to operate behind one of the nation’s best lines, the speed at running back should balance things out, and the run defense that allowed more than 140 rushing yards just three times will hold up from the start.
Oregon doesn’t allow a slew of sacks or plays behind the line, the pass defense is the third best in the nation, and …
Oregon vs James Madison Prediction, Betting Lines
The 2017 Las Vegas Bowl was the last time Oregon lost to a team outside of the power conferences, and that was a sputtering 7-6 squad that wasn’t in the same ballpark as this version.
If this were a regular early September showdown or a mid-November breather, things would be different. But this is the College Football Playoff, and Oregon will give this its full and undivided attention from the start.
The Autzen Stadium atmosphere will be insane, the team will want to get going fast, and then ….
James Madison will show it belongs. For a quarter.
The Dukes will withstand an early haymaker to claw back in the game with a strong first two drives, and then, just as things start to settle in, and America gives this a look during a commercial break in the Bears-Packers battle, the Duck offense will cluck.
Just like that, two fast scoring drives will open this up, James Madison won’t be able to run the ball a lick, and with ten minutes to go, this will turn into the game everyone was worrying about.
Oregon 41, James Madison 13
Line: Oregon -21.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4
Must See Rating: 4
– CFN Expert Picks of CFP First Round
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: College Football Expert Picks for the First 16 Bowl Games
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 15, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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