Oregon vs. USC prediction, odds, pick for Big Ten clash in Week 4

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It is the opening of Big Ten play for Oregon and USC, as the two former Pac-12 foes are set to do battle. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Oregon-USC prediction and pick.

Oregon comes into the game at 2-1 in the game. They opened the year with a tighter game than expected, hosting Boise State. The Ducks came away with a 34-27 victory in the game. They would then hit the road for the first time, facing off against Oklahoma State. Oregon was down heading into the fourth quarter, but took the lead just nine seconds into the fourth quarter on a pass from Dante Moore to Evan Stewart. Drew Mestemaker would give the Cowboys back the lead, and then a field goal expanded the lead late in the fourth. Oregon would fumble on the next drive, and Oklahoma State ran out the clock to take the 39-31 victory. The Ducks then took an 84-0 win over Portland in Week 3.

Meanwhile, USC is 4-0 on the year. They opened up the year with a Week 0 victory over San Jose State, 42-26. They would then defeat Fresno State and Louisiana, both at home. Last week, USC visited Rutgers in a game that ended up being closer than expected. It was a back-and-forth game, with USC taking a 20-14 lead into the halftime break. Still, Rutgers would keep it tight, answering each time USC scored as the defense struggled. The Scarlet Knights made it a seven-point game with 4:24 left in the game. Still, the Trojans were able to run out the rest of the clock to win the game 42-35.

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This will be the 65th all-time meeting between Oregon and USC. USC has won 38, while Oregon has 24 wins, and there have been two ties. Oregon has won four straight games in the series, including a win in Oregon last year, 42-27.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Oregon vs. USC Odds

Oregon: -3 (-110)

USC: +3 (-110)

Over: 62.5 (-108)

Under: 62.5 (-112)

Oregon vs. USC Key Injuries

Oregon- WR Jeremiah McClellan (Out), RB Simeon Price (Out), LB Brayden Platt (Out), OL Trent Ferguson (Out), WR Jalen Lott (Doubtful), TE Jamari Johnson (Questionable), TE Kendre Harrison (Questionable), DB Carl William IV (Probable)

USC- WR Corey Simms (Out), S Kendarius Reddick (Out), LB Taylor Johnson (Out), OL Kilian O’Connor (Out), WR Trent Mosley (Doubtful), DT Jahkeem Stewart (Questionable), RB Reshonne Redeaux (Questionable), S Alex Graham (Questionable), LB Jaydn Walker (Questionable), LB Elijah Newby (Probable)

Oregon vs. USC Betting Trends

– Oregon is just 1-2 against the spread this year, including losing outright as an underdog to Oklahoma State.

– The Ducks failed to cover in their only road game of the year.

– The over has hit in all three Oregon games this year.

– USC is just 1-3 against the spread this year, and only 1-2 at home.

– The over has hit in three of four games for USC this year.

Keys to Oregon vs. USC matchup

The key for Oregon is going to be attacking the secondary for USC. The secondary for the Trojans is struggling with injuries. Alex Graham is questionable, and he is the primary nickel corner. Jontez Williams has also been dealing with injuries and may not be one hundred percent for this game. Meanwhile, Oregon has Dante Moore at quarterback. He has completed 61 of 89 passes for 849 yards and nine touchdowns. Further, he has not thrown an interception this year. Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore have been great this year. Stewart has 15 receptions for 222 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Moore has 11 receptions for 192 yards and three touchdowns.

On defense, the Ducks need to contain Jayden Maiava. He has been great at extending plays while passing for over 1,173 yards so far this season. Oregon needs to be better at getting pressure on the quarterback. They have just a four percent sack rate this year, which is 92nd in the nation. Matayo Uiagalelei has been the best pass rusher this year, already with two sacks, but he has had a problem with overpursuing, which is dangerous against Maiava.

For USC is all about the RPO game. Lincoln Riley has been great at putting his quarterbacks into situations to get the ball out quickly, before a pocket can collapse. Jayden Maiava has been sacked just twice this year, while Kayden Dixon-Wyatt has been fantastic with high volume in receptions. He has 18 receptions for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Trent Mosley has also been solid, with 13 receptions for 255 yards and four scores. Still, he is doubtful for this game, which will add pressure to Maiava. King Miller can help with that pressure by running the ball. He has run for 338 yards and three touchdowns this year.

On defense, USC has to force Oregon into third-and-long situations. Oregon has struggled with first-down efficiency this year, and the run game has not been effective early in downs. The front seven for USC has not been great on first downs, ranking near the bottom of FCS in early-down EPA. If the Trojans can force third-and-long situations, they will likely be able to get punts and flip the field position game. The Ducks are 92nd in the nation in third-down conversion percentage, which will be a massive factor in this game.

Oregon vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Oregon needs to control the clock in this game. USC is one of the best in both third-down conversions and points per game. With the high-powered offense of the Trojans, the best defense is keeping them off the field. Oregon can do that with sustained drives and keeping ahead of the chains with Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. on the ground. In previous meetings between the two teams, special teams have made a major difference. Oregon has had multiple explosive plays on special teams, while often pinning the Trojans deep and forcing them to drive a long field.

USC is not good on defense, allowing 35 points and 460 yards to a bad Rutgers offense. With injuries to some key defensive backs, Oregon should be able to score plenty in this game. The Ducks have not been much better on defense, though. They are 14th in the Big Ten in havoc rate and have struggled against quality quarterbacks. This will be a high-scoring game, but Lincoln Riley’s record against Top 25 teams is a major concern for the Trojans in this one.

Final Oregon vs. USC Prediction and Pick: Oregon -3 (-110) and Over 62.5 (-108)

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