Oregon's win probability in every 2026 game, per ESPN FPI
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The Oregon Ducks have consistently been one of the top regular-season teams in college football in recent years, and that should be the case again this fall, according to ESPN's FPI projections.
FPI is an acronym for "Football Power Index," which is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that factors in net scoring margin in all three phases of the game: offense, defense and special teams. And entering this fall, ESPN's FPI is favorable to the Ducks.
Oregon landed at No. 4 on the FPI rankings, falling behind only the Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 1), Texas Longhorns (No. 2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (No. 3). They edged out the Georgia Bulldogs and defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers for the four spot — and for good reason, as the Ducks are welcoming back a large core of both their offense and defense that went all the way to the College Football Playoff Semifinal in 2025.
But before making it back to the semifinal, and what they hope is advancing to the national title game, Oregon will have to take on the 12 opponents on their regular season schedule. As part of their data, FPI has listed win probabilities for each Duck game this season. Here's the full list, with the percentage being Oregon's win probability:
- Boise State Broncos — 94.8%
- Oklahoma State Cowboys — 90.8%
- Portland State Vikings — 99.0%
- USC Trojans — 67.3%
- UCLA Bruins — 96.7%
- Nebraska Cornhuskers — 92.0%
- Illinois Fighting Illini — 85.0%
- Northwestern Wildcats — 96.8%
- Ohio State Buckeyes — 28.4%
- Michigan Wolverines — 83.9%
- Michigan State Spartans — 93.1%
- Washington Huskies — 89.6%
There are several eye-opening marks there, beginning with the Ducks' less than 30% chance of taking down the Buckeyes. The game will be on the road at The Shoe, which adds to the difficulty, especially with a projection system. Every year, Ohio State enters with an incredibly talented roster, and 2026 is no different.
For head coach Dan Lanning, it's the lone game on the schedule that he can pull out the underdog motivational tactics. Sure, the Ducks will be expected to compete with the Buckeyes. But ultimately, Ohio State will be expected to take care of business at home and down Oregon. We'll see if the Ducks can defy the odds and come out of Columbus with a W.
The other marks that stand out are simply how high of a win percentage the Ducks have against other power conference opponents, namely Oklahoma State, UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan State, all of which are over 90%. In that case, the pressure will be on Oregon to take care of business.
They did so in 2025, only losing to the eventual champion Hoosiers during the regular season. If that's the case once again in 2026 with Ohio State replacing Indiana — or if Oregon can find a way to come out with a victory — the Ducks will find themselves back in the CFP for a chance to make a title run come January.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon's win probability in every 2026 game, per ESPN FPI
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