Peak Perspective: Who’s Going Bowling in 2025?

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Hopefully, you have been following along with our bowl projections each week, which serve as a week-to-week collection of our team’s thoughts. This post will serve as a snapshot companion post to the week-in, week-out projections. As the weekly projections more or less plug deserving teams into the existing bowl structure, this one will look at every team in its own right and see what their chances are to go to a bowl game this season (Spoiler: some teams have a much better shot than other teams).

I’ll categorize each team’s chances (as told by me, so you know, it’s flawed) of making a bowl game this year with a rating system that may be familiar to some of you or may be something you’ve never heard of. If you are an avid TV watcher (like me), you may be familiar with the site tvline.com and their annual renewal/cancel scorecard.

Anyway, all 12 MW teams will be rated using the following: Officially Clinched, A sure thing, A safe bet, Could go either way, A long-shot, Essentially eliminated, and Officially eliminated. A short explanation will follow each.

Officially Clinched

UNLV

The Rebels were the first Mountain West team to earn a bowl berth, winning their first six games to reach the milestone as quickly as possible. Their schedule definitely helped them, but so has the offensive scheme Coach Mullen devised and the execution by the players. Now the only question for UNLV is what kind of bowl game they end up playing in.

Hawaii

The Rainbow Warriors were thought to be a team that could reach a bowl game this season. However, to do it in their first eight games was something not many people saw coming. Hawaii will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in five years and looks like one of the better teams in the Mountain West. They will not be an easy opponent for whoever they end up playing.

Boise State

The Broncos qualify for a bowl game for the 28th year in a row, which is as close to automatic as can be in college football. They have overcome their season-opening setback and while they aren’t a perfect team, they have gotten better as the season has gone on, especially on defense. That is, until this past week, when everything fell apart. Boise State may end up crawling into a bowl game by the time the regular season ends.

San Diego State

The Aztecs have been a great surprise for the 2025 season, winning five straight after an embarrassing loss early on. They boast the best defense in the conference and one of the best in the country at this point, which allows them to compete with almost anyone. Now that they have the bowl game in hand, San Diego State is striving for the Mountain West championship, which would be a significant milestone in the second year of the Sean Lewis era.

New Mexico

The Lobos are a wonderful feel-good story for the 2025 season, and it’s only fitting they reach a bowl game for the first time since 2015. With a great coach and a team full of players who are maxing out their potential and playing as a true team, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, they are easy to root for. New Mexico will be looking for their first bowl victory since 2007, when they beat Nevada.

Fresno State

The Bulldogs sat at five wins for a few weeks, but finally got their sixth victory this past weekend, doing so in in a statement win against Boise State. The team has overachieved in the first year of the Matt Entz era, and while not a perfect team, watching them on a regular basis shows glimpses of what they will be in a season or two. Fresno State may not look flashy, but their eventual bowl opponent shouldn’t overlook them, as they will play tough for 60 mins.

A Sure Thing

A Safe Bet

Could Go Either Way

Utah State

The Aggies are in a good position in Bronco Mendenhall’s first year at the helm for the program. They need two more wins with four games remaining. One of those is against Nevada, but the other three are against teams that have already clinched bowl games. Can they beat one of UNLV, Fresno State, or Boise State to reach a bowl game? Stay tuned.

Wyoming

Likewise, the Cowboys also sit at four wins. However, they only have three games left, making their path a bit harder. They too play Nevada, but it’s sandwiched between Fresno State, and Hawaii, and with how their offense has looked lately, it could be tough for them.

A Long Shot

San Jose State

The Spartans were thought to have an easy path to the conference championship game with a favorable schedule that avoided perceived top teams. However, the program hasn’t been able to do much with that schedule, instead facing an uphill battle to even reach a bowl game. They still have a chance, but it isn’t very likely at this point.

Essentially Eliminated

Air Force

It’s been a tough go this season for Air Force. Their offense is arguably the most versatile and dynamic in recent memory, but their defense might be the worst one in the Troy Calhoun era. Losing numerous one-score games has left them here, but hopefully, they can retain players and build on things going forward.

Colorado State

It seems silly to think of now, but the Rams were thought by some to be a dark horse candidate in the Mountain West this season. Instead, nothing really went right for the team. They have had two head coaches and have played three different quarterbacks. Neither of those is a mark of a good season.

Officially Eliminated

Nevada

It’s been a rough road for the Wolf Pack this year, with few bright spots to point to in 2025. While they have a strong pass rush and the future looks promising at quarterback, most everything else has been a disappointment. Nevada has one lone win on the season, which means that as the losses piled up, they became the first Mountain West team to be eliminated from bowl contention.

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