Penn State football game-by-game picks, postseason prediction for 2026 season

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It’s a new era in Happy Valley for the Penn State Nittany Lions. The 2025 season was so disappointing that the unthinkable happened. The program moved on from former head coach James Franklin. In comes Matt Campbell from Iowa State to create a new culture.

Campbell could not have been given an easier schedule to start his new journey. There is a good chance that the Nittany Lions storm through the schedule with double-digit wins at a bare minimum.

Penn State avoids several of the Big Ten’s biggest threats and has only two games that immediately jump off the schedule as a likely loss. If Campbell can get this roster clicking quickly, double-digit wins should be the expectation rather than the ceiling.

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Let’s predict every game on Penn State’s 2026 schedule.

Week 1 – Marshall (Sept. 5): Win

Marshall is a respectable program, but the talent gap is simply too large. Penn State should use this game to establish its new identity while getting plenty of younger players involved.

Fans will get a chance to see Rocco Becht for the first time against a new opponent, but there is a chance he doesn’t play the entire game due to the score. Campbell’s Penn State debut shouldn’t provide much drama.

Record: 1-0

Week 2 – @ Temple (Sept. 12): Win

Penn State gets its first road game of the Campbell era. Expect Nittany Lions fans to pack the stadium in Philadelphia and turn this into a home game for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State wins comfortably.

Record: 2-0

Week 3 – Buffalo (Sept. 19): Win

This is exactly the type of early schedule a first-year head coach wants. Campbell gets three games to install his system and evaluate his roster before the difficulty increases. Penn State wins by a ton.

Record: 3-0

Week 4 – Wisconsin (Sept. 26): Win

The first real test of the season.

Wisconsin can make games ugly, but Penn State gets the Badgers at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions should have enough defensive talent to control this matchup and move to 4-0. Wisconsin has been underwhelming for the last decade.

Record: 4-0

Week 5 – @ Northwestern (Oct. 2): Win

This has trap-game potential, especially with USC waiting the following week. Fans remember what happened last year.

Still, Penn State shouldn’t lose this game. If the Nittany Lions have serious College Football Playoff aspirations, Northwestern is an opponent they must handle even on the road.

Record: 5-0

Week 6 – USC (Oct. 10): Win

This should be the most entertaining game on Penn State’s schedule.

USC brings enough offensive talent to make anyone uncomfortable, but getting the Trojans at home is significant. Beaver Stadium should be rocking for what could become a prime-time matchup. The Trojans will have the best offense on the schedule, and this will be the defense’s biggest test.

Still, Penn State wins in a close battle.

Record: 6-0

Week 7 – @ Michigan (Oct. 17): Loss

Here comes the undefeated reality check. Going into Michigan and winning will be Penn State’s toughest assignment of the regular season. The Nittany Lions absolutely can win this game, but asking Campbell to walk into Ann Arbor during his first season and leave undefeated is asking a lot.

Penn State suffers its first loss to Bryce Underwood.

Record: 6-1

Week 8 – BYE (Oct. 24)

Record: 6-1

Week 9 – Purdue (Oct. 31): Win

Coming off a bye and returning home should allow Penn State to get back on track immediately. They will likely dominate Purdue at home with fresh legs as they prepare for another tough road assignment.

Record: 7-1

Week 10 – @ Washington (Nov. 7): Win

This is the game to circle as a potential late-season upset. Traveling across the country to Washington isn’t easy, especially in November. They also haven’t done so since 1921. But Penn State will have everything to play for with its Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff hopes alive.

It may not be pretty, but the Nittany Lions escape.

Record: 8-1

Week 11 – Minnesota (Nov. 14): Win

Penn State returns home and keeps rolling. Minnesota could make this competitive for a while, but the Nittany Lions should have better talent on both sides of the ball.

Record: 9-1

Week 12 – Rutgers (Nov. 21): Win

By this point, the conversation surrounding Penn State should be entirely focused on playoff positioning. They will be chasing a blowout win. Rutgers has improved considerably as a program, but they won’t have enough motivation late in the season to do any sort of damage.

Campbell rolls to his first double-digit win season in Happy Valley.

Record: 10-1

Week 13 – @ Maryland (Nov. 28): Win

Penn State finishes the regular season on the road against Maryland. There’s always some danger when playing a rivalry-style matchup to end the season, but the Nittany Lions should understand what’s at stake.

Win, and they’re certainly heading to the College Football Playoff, while keeping their Big Ten Championship hopes alive. It will depend on Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan’s records heading into Week 13.

Record: 11-1

Penn State Postseason Prediction: College Football Playoff

An 11-1 Penn State team with wins over Wisconsin, USC and Washington would have a compelling playoff résumé.

The Michigan loss wouldn’t destroy its season. In fact, depending on how the rest of the Big Ten shakes out, Penn State could still find itself competing for a conference championship appearance.

But even without a Big Ten title, 11 wins should put the Nittany Lions comfortably in the College Football Playoff discussion as a 6-11 seed.

After everything that went wrong in 2025, that’s one heck of a way to begin a new era.

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