Penn State Football Preview 2026: Can Matt Campbell Win the Big Games?

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Penn State hired Matt Campbell to be the head coach to take the program to that one extra level that James Franklin couldn't.

But is the former Iowa State head man the one who's going to push the program past Ohio State, and Indiana, and Oregon, Michigan, and USC to be the star of the Big Ten?

And that leads to the big thing that ultimately became the reason why Franklin is now the head coach at Virginia Tech.

Can Campbell win the really, really big games?

Can Matt Campbell Take Penn State a Step Further?

It was Franklin's anchor that his teams had problems against the top ten powerhouses – getting the Nittany Lions to the 2024 season College Football Playoff semifinals basically bought him a fat load of jack squat when it came to national respect – but he won a whole lot of games against everyone else.

Campbell won a lot of games at Iowa State, averaging over seven wins a season at a place not used to being a steady winner.

But he won just two bowl games, and one was the 2024 Pop-Tarts, thanks to Miami star quarterback Cam Ward tapping out at halftime.

Campbell got to two Big 12 Championship games and lost them both, went 3-15 since 2018 against Power Four programs that finished with at least ten wins – one was that Miami team – and …

This could absolutely work, and right away.

Penn State has a good group of players in place. Plenty of the stars left, but enough are still around to provide a solid base. 

Add a whopping 24 players from Iowa State – Campbell did win 19 games over the last two years – and other good players through the portal.

Take that, and then mix in a dreamy schedule (wait until the end – you won't believe who Penn State doesn't have to play), and this is that sleeper-not-a-sleeper-because-it's-Penn-State team to watch out for.

If Campbell and Penn State win the big games.

– 2026 Penn State Schedule Analysis

Penn State Quick Hits

• Head Coach: Matt Campbell (1st year; 16th year overall, 107-70)
• Best Case / Worst Case: Win the Big Ten and make a deep College Football Playoff run/A mid-level Big Ten finish and average bowl game
• Key Player: Malachi Goodman, OT RFr.
• 2025 Record: 7-6
• Biggest Question: How well will all the Iowa State parts mesh with the Penn State pieces in place?

Penn State Key 2025 Stats

• Rushing Touchdowns: Penn State 30, Opponents 16
• Sacks: Penn State 32 for 211 yards, Opponents 19 for 129 yards 
• Blocked Kicks: Penn State 5, Opponents 1 

Offense

Taylor Mouser was Campbell's offensive coordinator over the last few years, and his Penn State offense has to be far more explosive and consistent than his Cyclone attack was last season.

There might not be a ton of returning starters, but the transfers coming in are fantastic, and there's a chance to hit the ground running if everyone can stay healthy.

What’s Working

The quarterback situation. Drew Allar was a bit better than he ever got credit for, but he got hurt halfway through the season. Now he's a Pittsburgh Steeler, and backup Ethan Grunkemeyer is Franklin's quarterback at Virginia Tech.

Rocco Becht played for Campbell over the last four years and leaves Ames with over 9,200 passing yards and 64 touchdowns with 19 scoring runs.

Becht's backup, Alex Manske, is coming along, too.

The running backs might not be quite as talented as the combination of Kayton Allen and Nicholas Singleton, but there's no complaining about the 1-2 punch of bruising back Carson Hanson (Iowa State) and James Peoples (Ohio State) to go along with last year's third-leading running back, Quinton Martin.

There's a lot to love at wide receiver. Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen (both from Iowa State) are elite deep threats who'll be instant factors.

They're not alone, with three more receivers coming in, and Koby Howard still around after averaging 19 yards per grab last season on his seven catches.

What Needs Work

The offensive line will be the biggest concern in fall camp. Losing Drew Shelton (Dallas Cowboys) and Olaivavega Ioane (Baltimore Ravens) isn't a plus.

There's talent, including guard Trevor Buhr (Iowa State) and center Brock Riker (Texas State), but the tackle situation is thin.

Anthony Donkoh will probably move from guard to the outside, and Malachi Goodman has the 6-6, 330-pound size along with the talent to grow into the gig.

Mouser's offenses were fine, but they weren't a killer. Iowa State finished ninth in the Big 12 in total offense in each of the last two seasons. 

They came up with more yards than Penn State's did last year, but the competition is about to go up several notches.

The running game has to rock. Penn State had NFL-caliber backs working behind a line with a few elite talents, and when it worked, it won.

The Nittany Lions were 5-0 when running for 200 yards or more, and the only team they beat in the regular season when they didn't hit the mark was Nevada.

Iowa State averaged 174 rushing yards per game.

Player to Watch

Benjamin Brahmer, TE Sr.
Penn State is used to having great tight ends, and Campbell – and especially Mouser, a tight ends coach – are used to developing elite ones.

Out of all the great Cyclones coming over, Becht is the most important, but the 6-7, 250-pound Brahmer might be the best talent from the transfer portal.

Over the last three years, he made 75 catches for 977 yards and nine scores as one of the Big 12's top tight ends.

Defense

After doing a good job ramping up the USC defense over the last few seasons, D'Anton Lynn comes in to take over the Penn State D.

He's building this up with transfers, but his style will fit right away with lots of attacking, big plays on third downs, and a good overall fight considering the talent coming in.

What’s Working 

It's Penn State – it'll always have great linebackers. Tony Rojas is back after missing a big chunk of last season, but he was a force in 2024 with 58 stops and three picks.

He's joined by the Iowa State tandem of Kooper Ebel and Caleb Bacon for the inside – those two combined for 145 tackles with 17.5 tackles for loss.

The secondary will be sneaky-good right away. The corner combination of Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixson is still around, and safety Zion Tracy should do more with a bigger role.

Iowa State safety transfers Marcus Neal Jr., Jeremiah Cooper, and Jamison Patton are elite stat-sheet fillers.

Over the last few years, Lynn's defenses have been great in the red zone. This saved the USC D, allowing teams to score just 76% of the time when they got inside the 20. His Nittany Lion defense should also be great at not breaking after bending.

What Needs Work

Penn State lost some amazing players on the defensive front. In all, it lost 12 linemen in the portal and a few others in the NFL Draft.

The transfer portal helped bring some decent options in, but Dani Dennis-Sutton is gone to the Green Bay Packers, and tackle Zane Durant is a Buffalo Bill.

No, really, Penn State lost some amazing players on the defensive front. Chaz Coleman and Xavier Gilliam (both to Tennessee, but it didn't work medically for Coleman) were two of the top players in the portal. Last year at this time, they were expected to be the future foundation for the Penn State line.

End Zuriah Fisher (USC) and tackle Siale Taupaki (UCLA) are great transfer prospects who would've found big roles right away.

Stop teams from completing passes. It sounds simple, but it was a problem. Penn State went 5-0 when allowing teams to convert fewer than 60% of their passes, and 2-5 – and they had a nightmare of a time in the win over Rutgers – when opposing quarterbacks were even reasonably accurate.

How big is this? Since 2022, Penn State is 30-0 when the opposing passing game doesn't complete 60% of its passes.

Player to Watch

Marcus Neal Jr., S Jr.
It took a year to get up to speed, and then he turned into a superstar for the Cyclone defense.

He tied for the team lead with 77 tackles, two picks, and 11 tackles for loss, and now he'll be all over the field for the Nittany Lions.

Keys to the Season

• How fast can all the Iowa State players fit in with what's in place?
• Both lines have to be up to normal Penn State standards by the time the Big Ten season starts.
• Keep the interceptions down – this was a problem last year, and Cyclone transfer Rocco Becht has thrown 26 over the last three seasons.

Player Who Needs To Shine

Malachi Goodman, OT RFr.
The transfers will take care of just about every other position that needs filling, but the offensive front is the one big concern.

Goodman was a good recruit for the program last year, but he wasn't a sure-fire Johnny Five-Star type. However, with his 6-6, 330-pound size and movement, the upside is enormous at one of the offensive tackle gigs.

Biggest Concern

How will everyone handle the expectations?
Oh sure, it'll be easy to say all the right things about how Campbell needs a year or so to get all the pieces in place to make Penn State a true national championship player. However …

Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern. That's the start to the season, and the hype will build if and when the Nittany Lions (probably) go 5-0.

The truly dangerous games will soon kick in, but the spotlight will be bright for USC and then Michigan.

Biggest Game

at Michigan, October 17
The Big Ten opener against Wisconsin won't be a breeze; USC is USC, and going to Washington will be a fight.

Beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, and nothing less than a College Football Playoff appearance will be okay with Penn State's relatively favorable schedule.

Transfer Portal

It's not all about the Iowa State transfers, but it's hard to ignore just how much the season will be made or broken by the bulk group of players coming over from Ames.

By comparison, losing 12 players to James Franklin and Virginia Tech isn't quite as bad, and for the most part, Campbell and his staff were able to hold their own in the portal game.

Because there's been enough Cyclone talk, here are the transfers who didn't play for Campbell.

Best Signing

James Peoples, RB (Ohio State)
The 5-10, 214-pound Peoples would've been a recruiting class-maker for most teams, but was part of the group with Ohio State.

He ran for 541 yards and five touchdowns over the last two years for the Buckeyes, and now he'll be a featured back at times.

Biggest Loss

Amare Campbell, LB (Tennessee)
A great transfer signing last year for the Nittany Lions, Campbell came in after making 90 tackles and 7.5 sacks for the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Last year, he made a team-high 103 stops with three sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss, and he took a fumble for a touchdown in the 40-36 win over Rutgers.

He'll be a difference-maker for Tennessee.

Other Names to Know

• Brock Riker, C (Texas State)
• Nathan Tiyce, P (Mississippi State)
• Siale Taupaki, DT (UCLA)

CFN Season Prediction

What would've happened if Penn State came up with a late fourth down stop against Oregon?

It's been memory-dumped, but Penn State was No. 3 and had the Ducks beaten, but it couldn't come up with a late stop and lost in double-overtime.

It lost the next three games by a heartbreaking total of seven points. Indiana needed an iconic late drive to get out of Happy Valley alive, and …

Last year, Penn State lost to Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and UCLA (who's way better this year), and none of those five are on the 2026 schedule. Missing Illinois and Nebraska isn't bad, either.

CFN Prediction: 9-3

Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo. That's Penn State's non-conference schedule. 

Wisconsin and Minnesota are dangerous this year, but those have to be winnable home games, and there can't be any sort of blink against Purdue or Rutgers.

Campbell has to win all the games Penn State will be favored in, and then it's all about USC, at Michigan, at Washington.

With this schedule, it's just this easy – win the big games, go to the College Football Playoff.

Related: Big Ten Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 18 Teams

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