Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Friday, October 2

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The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, Illinois, on Friday, Oct. 2. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Penn State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Northwestern, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +116 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 points.

Here’s my Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction and college football pick for Friday, October 2.

My Northwestern vs. Penn State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Penn State vs Northwestern Odds

• Penn State vs Northwestern Spread: Penn State -2.5 (-115), Northwestern +2.5 (-105)
• Penn State vs Northwestern Over/Under: 45.5 (-108o / -112u)
• Penn State vs Northwestern Moneyline: Penn State -140, Northwestern +116

Head coach Matt Campbell had one of the easiest schedules for the Nittany Lions heading into Week 4. A devastating loss to Wisconsin saw a 17-7 halftime lead evaporate after producing just a field goal in the second half.

The Badgers dominated in overall yards per play, outgaining the Nittany Lions by nearly two yards per play.

The loss of star wide receiver Koby Howard left quarterback Rocco Becht without answers in the passing game. Penn State generated a low 23% Success Rate on 31 passing attempts, completing just one pass over 20 yards.

Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has produced one of the best units in FBS against the pass, producing the top overall coverage grade, per PFF.

The Nittany Lions held the Badgers to just 36% of available yards and a 30% Success Rate on passing downs, both under the national average.

Limiting methodical drives has been the calling card for the defense, although teams with explosiveness on the ground have created issues for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has allowed five different rushing gains over 50 yards this season.

A surprising cover against Indiana could be linked to execution in the passing game.

Quarterback Aidan Chiles continues to learn Chip Kelly’s offensive requirements, connecting on 22-of-29 passing attempts for two touchdowns.

Northwestern converted half of its third- and fourth-down attempts with an average distance to go of 9.9 yards against the Hoosiers.

Slot receiver Luke Dehnicke doubled his season target share as a home-run hitter in the passing game, while Chiles’ safety blanket in the red zone came in the form of wideout Griffin Wilde.

Head coach David Braun has plenty of work to do regarding the defense. The Wildcats rank dead last in producing a pass rush and sit bottom-10 in Line Yards.

Northwestern elects to play quarters zone coverage, giving up the middle of the field and opting to make stops in scoring position. Opponents have marched up and down the field, but Northwestern ranks 17th in Defensive Finishing Drives thanks to 19 opponent drives crossing the 40-yard line with an average of 2.4 points per trip.

The Wildcats have allowed the third-fewest red-zone touchdowns with four on the season.

The star of the game might not be either team, but rather the grand opening of Ryan Field in Chicago. There are significant changes in the elements of Northwestern home games, as the playing surface has been lowered to 21 feet below ground level.

Many media tours of the stadium noted that with wind gusts at 20 MPH in Evanston, but the wind wasn’t a factor from field level. Similar to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the roof and open outer perimeter allow the wrinkles of gusts to smooth out before hitting the field.

From an investment perspective, totals should be treated differently for Northwestern home games with a slight upward trajectory in scoring.

The biggest question comes in Northwestern’s ability to create explosive rushes against Penn State’s defense. The Wildcats have notched only one rush that exceeded 30 yards this season, signaling that Chiles’ mobility in the passing game will be the plan of attack.

Lynn’s defense lines up in Cover 3 and Cover 1 zone, both of which Chiles has dominated this season. Northwestern has a 56% Success Rate on 90 offensive snaps against those coverages, averaging a big play on 21% of attempts.

Penn State will counter with a successful rushing attack behind James Peoples, Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr.

Campbell’s offense has logged more than 80 rushing attempts using inside and outside zone read, a run concept Northwestern has severely struggled to defend. The Wildcats own a low 41% Success Rate against zone read, a number that drops to 35% against Campbell’s base personnel of 12.

Action Network’s  Betting Power Ratings call for Penn State to be favored by a field goal, aligning with the current market offering. A projected total of 48.5 shows there’s a small advantage against a sinking number of 45.

Penn State will have an advantage on the ground with 12 personnel and zone read, while Chiles and Northwestern will look to expose a Nittany Lions defense that has given up numerous explosive runs.

Look for both teams to create methodical drives and enough scoring opportunities.

Pick: Over 45.5

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