Picking SEC bowl games is risky. But I'm not opting out | Adams
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My first thought on picking SEC bowl games: Don’t do it. Just opt out.
Players opt out. Coaches leave. You can’t be sure who’s playing, who’s headed for the transfer portal, and who wants a head start on his NFL career.
But then, I reminded myself: “I’m a picker, not a quitter.”
Tennessee 34, Illinois 31: Both teams will be without key players, but neither quarterback is opting out. That shouldn’t have been a tough decision for Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar or Illinois’ Luke Altmyer.
The Vols rank 115th nationally in pass defense, which means almost any quarterback with a reasonably healthy arm could enhance his statistics by throwing into UT’s secondary. Illinois’ pass defense, which ranks 79th nationally in passing yardage allowed per game, hasn’t been as consistently inept but struggled against some of the better quarterbacks on its schedule.
Washington’s DeMond Williams completed 26 of 33 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns against the Illini, who also brought out the best in Indiana Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. He completed 21 of 23 passes for 267 yards and five touchdowns.
Neither quarterback threw an interception, which isn’t surprising. Illinois intercepted just six passes in 12 games.
Missouri 27, Virginia 24: The Cavaliers are No. 19 in the College Football Playoff rankings, which is a bad sign for the Tigers. Missouri is 0-4 against nationally ranked teams.
But there’s a reason why oddsmakers ignored that record in making the Tigers a slight favorite. Like Missouri, Virginia doesn’t have a win over a team currently ranked in the Top 25.
Houston 27, LSU 23: Give new Tigers coach Lane Kiffin credit for allowing interim coach Frank Wilson to coach LSU in the Texas Bowl. Kiffin isn’t being kind. He’s making sure he doesn’t begin his new job with a loss.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is one of four Tigers who won’t be playing due to injuries. Other injured Tigers: wide receiver Aaron Anderson, cornerback Mansoor Delane and linebacker Whit Weeks.
That might be too much attrition to overcome.
Vanderbilt 27, Iowa 20: The ReliaQuest Bowl will give Heisman Trophy runner-up Diego Pavia a chance to drop another “F bomb” on the voters.
Mendoza completed 13 of 23 passes for 233 yards in Indiana’s 20-15 victory over the Hawkeyes. The way Pavia has been piling up stats, he could surpass that in three quarters.
In Vanderbilt’s last two games – victories over Kentucky and Tennessee – Pavia completed 51 of 67 passes for 752 yards and six touchdowns.
Iowa’s defense will present a greater challenge, but that doesn’t mean it can shut down – or shut up – Pavia.
Texas 30, Michigan 22: The Citrus Bowl is the least of Michigan’s concerns. The Wolverines are preoccupied with finding a new coach.
Other Wolverines’ coaching searches involved finding a “Michigan man.” But the bar has been lowered. Now, they would settle for someone who won’t produce a scandal.
I guess that eliminates Connor Stalions as a candidate.
Mississippi State 34, Wake Forest 30: Players aren’t the only ones who opt out of bowls. Sometimes, entire teams do.
The 5-7 Bulldogs backed into the Duke’s Mayo Bowl after Kansas State and Iowa state declined bowl invitations. Based on their quotes, Mississippi State players are excited about the opportunity.
If you find a team that cares about playing in a bowl as meaningless as this one, bet on it.
Indiana 34, Alabama 23: In the topsy-turvy world of college sports, the Tide now have a better chance of beating the Hoosiers in basketball than football.
Alabama is 5-2 against nationally ranked teams. But it hasn’t played a team as balanced as Indiana’s.
The unbeaten Hoosiers are averaging 221.2 yards per game rushing and 251.6 yards per game passing. They rank sixth nationally in total defense and eighth in total offense.
Georgia 34, Ole Miss 24: The Bulldogs amassed 510 yards in beating the Rebels 43-35 during the regular season – but only after they outscored Ole Miss 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
Georgia’s defense has improved since then. The Ole Miss offense didn’t miss Kiffin in a first-round playoff rout of Tulane, but its defense hasn’t improved enough to take down the Bulldogs.
Record: 111-21 (.841), 77-43 (.642) against the spread.
John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: SEC bowl predictions for Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU
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