Predicting the 2026 SEC Football Season: Mississippi State Preview & Game-By-Game Picks
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Number five in our series of wild blind dart-throwing predictions reunites the Crimson Tide with our ol’ friends down the road in StarkVegas.
WEEK 5, OCT 3: at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Coach: Jeff Lebby, age 42 (7–18, 1–15 SEC, 0-1 bowls, in two seasons)
2025 MSU record: 5–8 (1–7 in SEC, 14th place)
History: When Commissioner Greg Sankey dissolved the East and West Divisions of the SEC after the 2023 season, he in his infinite wisdom decided that the two teams that were geographically closest, who had faced off 108 times and every year since WWII did not need to play anymore. After a two year absence, MSU and Bama will once again meet on the field of battle. It has been a lopsided series [ED.NOTE: most series against Alabama have been] with the Crimson Tide holding an 88-17-3 record against the Bulldogs. Missy State has not defeated Alabama since the miserable 2007 UA campaign. Since that game, the Tide have won 16 straight from 2008 to 2023.
Looking back: After a dreadful 2024 season that saw the Bullies get bullied to a 2–10 record, there was some improvement last season. Mississippi State started the season 4-0 including an impressive win over Sam Leavitt/Jordyn Tyson led Arizona State. But then the SEC season kicked in and MSU suffered four straight losses (three REALLY close ones): vs Tennessee (OT), @Texas A&M (blowout), @Florida (2 points), and vs Texas (OT). Following a tight win at Arkansas, the results were three lopsided defeats to UGA, @Mizzou, and Ole Miss. Despite a 5-7 regular season record, Mississippi State became eligible for the 2025 Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs Wake Forest due to a combination of high academic rankings and other teams bitching out on bowl games. Sadly, MSU lost that one too.
Returning starters: 2 on offense, 3 on defense, punter & kicker
Key losses: WR Brenen Thompson (4th round, Chargers), TE Seydou Traore (5th round, Dolphins), RB Davon Booth (grad; 552 yds, 7 TD), DL Kedrick Bingley-Jones (transfer to Alabama), SAF Tony Mitchell (Bama>JUCO>MSU>Ole Miss), OL Jayvin James (Alabama), OL Zack Owens (Clem>Colo>MSU>Mizzou), OL Jimothy Lewis (Cal)
Top returnees: Second-Team All-SEC CB Kelley Jones, RB Fluff Bothwell (677 yds, 6 TD), QB Kamario Taylor (458 rush yds 8 TD; 629 pass yds 5 TD), WR Anthony Evans (67 rec, 831 yds, 4 TD), WR Ayden Williams (21 rec, 252 yds, 0 TD), P Ethan Pulliam (46.8 ypp)
Top newcomers: DL Dealyn Evans (from TAMU), QB AJ Swann (Vandy>LSU>App State), SAF Marcus Williams (Rice; 46 solo, 21 asst, 5 PD), EDGE Amaree Williams (FSU), WR/PR Marquis Johnson (Mizzou; 28 rec, 340 yds, 2 TD), SAF Jardin Gilbert (from TMU>LSU), LG DJ Chester (LSU), RG LJ Prudhomme (Arky), CB Quentin Taylor (Iowa State), SAF Bralan Womack (top 50 freshman); OL Miles McVay began his college career at Alabama, followed by a year at UNC as a back-up. For now, he does not look like a starter for MSU, but will be good for depth.
Top Weirdo: Linebacker Fred Clark has legally changed his name to Fatt Forrest. He is 6-2/235, so I am guessing he thinks he is pretty 1980s fat.
Strengths: Good potential from skills players… DC Zach Arnett runs a pretty good defensive scheme… Secondary should be okay… QB Taylor has potential…
Weaknesses: Questionable offensive line… Not great depth anywhere… Head coach Lebby is also the offensive coordinator and calls the offensive plays. I’m not a fan of that plan… Lotsa question marks in the front six on defense…
Outlook: On paper, the 2025 team did not look great. However, they had some heartbreaking winnable games that hurt their record. By the time UGA came to town, the wheels were falling off. Starting quarterback Blake Shapen was benched for the Egg Bowl and the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in favor of Taylor. The dual QB showed promise in his two starts but wasn’t so great overall. He just needs more consistency. Swann had a few decent years at Vandy and then wasted a year at LSU. Last year he was okay while at App State. Now with the Bullies, he is looking like he might have another season on the bench but it’s good to have options.
Bothwell has 1,000 yard potential, but Missy State will need to find an OL.
If Mississippi State was in any non-Power conference, they would be the league favorite. Heck, they probably would make it to the ACC Championship Game against Miami-FL. But they aren’t. They are in the SEC and everyone has a Murderer’s Row on the schedule. If MSU can steal a game or two, they could get back to a bowl game the old fashioned way. If not, it might mean the hot-seat for Lebby.
Odds
- Wins Total Per FanDuel: 4.5
- No spreads are available for the Bama game. My guess is around UA -14.5.
2026 MSU SCHEDULE:
- Sat, Sep 5 vs Louisiana-Monroe – W
- Sat, Sep 12 at Minnesota – W – This will be a tough road trip, but the Bullies can pull this one off.
- Sat, Sep 19 at South Carolina – L -roadie
- Sat, Sep 26 vs Missouri – L
- Sat, Oct 3 vs Alabama – L
- Sat, Oct 17 at LSU – L
- Sat, Oct 24 vs Oklahoma – L
- Sat, Oct 31 at Texas – L
- Sat, Nov 7 vs Vanderbilt – W – home, but could be a toss up
- Sat, Nov 14 vs Auburn – W – same as above
- Sat, Nov 21 vs Tennessee Tech – W
- Fri, Nov 27 at Ole Miss – L
PREVIOUS 2026 ALABAMA SCHEDULE PREVIEWS:
- Sat, Sep 5 vs East Carolina
- Sat, Sep 12 @ Kentucky
- Sat, Sep 19 vs Florida State
- Sat, Sep 26 vs South Carolina
- Sat, Oct 3 @ Mississippi State
- Sat, Oct 10 vs Georgia
- Sat, Oct 17 @ Tennessee
- Sat, Oct 24 vs Texas A&M
- Sat, Nov 7 @ LSU
- Sat, Nov 14 @ Vanderbilt
- Sat, Nov 21 vs Chattanooga
- Sat, Nov 28 vs Auburn
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