Predicting the 2026 Texas schedule
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We are one week out from the Texas Longhorns kicking off the 2026 season with their sights set on the postseason in an all-in year. The Longhorns will have to navigate a tough road to reach those goals, as they boast the third-toughest schedule according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index. However, Texas could and should be favored in most of those contests, sitting with a season win total at 9.5 according to FanDuel.
How do we think they will fare against tough sledding?
Texas State | Sept. 5 | Austin
I am a big fan of GJ Kinne, and I am not looking forward to when he inevitably gets poached by an in-state program with more resources than he has in San Marcos. That being said, the talent disparity between Texas and Texas State should carry this one for Texas. It may start slow, with the Longhorns shaking off some of the rust against a high-powered offense, but hopefully this gets lopsided in the second half, and Texas has an opportunity to get its depth some significant playing time in this game.
Prediction: Win
Ohio State | Sept. 12 | Austin
Last year’s season opener was a potent combination of ugly offense and defenses bottling up inexperienced quarterbacks. With two high-level quarterbacks, two of the top wide receivers in the country, and elite ground games, this year’s game should have a bit different complexion, especially because Ohio State lost a bunch of elite defensive players to the NFL, but the Buckeyes reloaded through the portal and are experienced, while the Horns will be in Week 2 of the Will Muschamp era. I would be happy to be wrong on this one, but I feel more comfortable taking Ohio State because of its experience with the systems on the both sides of the ball and the talent they brought in via the portal.
Prediction: Loss
UTSA | Sept. 19 | Austin
Jeff Traylor has been incredible for the Roadrunners, despite a pair of down years, and is looking to bring UTSA back to the standard the program set in his early days in San Antonio. This is another game in which that simple talent disparity should carry the day for Texas. UTSA brings back experience on offense, but the Muschamp defense should be humming at this point in the season for one final tuneup before starting conference play.
Prediction: Win
Tennessee | Sept. 26 | Knoxville
Texas’s first road game of the season will likely be the marquee early-season conference matchup. Frankly, it plays in Texas’s favor that this is an 11 a.m. kickoff rather than prime time, so the Vols faithful won’t be at maximum intoxication in Knoxville. Freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon is an all-world talent, but his first SEC start comes against a Texas defense that should be hitting its stride in Week 4. Tennessee will get its points, but I trust Texas to get the necessary stop against Brandon more than I do the Vols to get the stop against Manning.
Prediction: Win
Oklahoma | Oct. 10 | Dallas
I try not to toot my own horn often, but as someone who called himself a John Mateer truther heading into 2025, I feel vindicated. While he may look like a fitness model now, I don’t know how that improves his accuracy or decision-making. You can blame last year’s three interceptions against Texas on the thumb, but then what do you say about the interceptions in the games before the injury? The Sooners will bring one of the best defenses in the country to the Cotton Bowl, so we may see a lower-scoring affair in Dallas. In that event, I’ll pick the team with the better running backs and a quarterback who takes better care of the ball.
Prediction: Win
Florida | Oct. 17 | Austin
I know it’s a fool’s errand to expect feelings from last year to carry over, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see the Longhorns come out and try to make a statement at home against the Gators. Florida brings back running back Jadan Baugh, who had a field day against Texas last year, but I don’t know if Aaron Philo will be the quarterback to get the job done offensively. I do expect this to be tighter than Texas fans would want, and I am convinced that Jon Sumrall will get the Gators going in the right direction sooner rather than later.
Prediction: Win
Ole Miss | Oct. 24 | Austin
I don’t know how to feel about Mississippi. They were aggressive in upgrading their defense in the transfer portal, and return Trinidad Chambliss and Kewayn Lacy from an explosive offense. It will be interesting to see how the offense looks under new offensive coordinator John David Baker and what of last year’s success can be attributed to their former head coach. I think this matchup will come down to a few plays by top-end talent, and I trust Sarkisian and Muschamp more than Golding and Baker.
Prediction: Win
Mississippi State | Oct. 31 | Austin
Jeff Lebby has the advantage of bringing back quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell, while adding an elite receiver in Marquis Johnson, but will they be able to overcome their deficiencies along the offensive line? I think Muschamp and the Texas pass rush will likely push the advantage and keep Taylor from ever getting comfortable. I think Colin Simmons and the Texas pass rush flexes their muscles on this one, and the Longhorns can hang a win on their defense.
Prediction: Win
Missouri | Nov. 7 | Columbia
Missouri did a ton of work in the portal to address their biggest offensive needs, adding quarterback Austin Simmons and wide receiver Cayden Lee as a potential big-play tandem. Running back Ahmad Hardy is still uncertain after being shot in a freak accident in the offseason, but if he can return and be productive, they may have one of the most explosive big threes that nobody is talking about. Everything about this game feels trappy to me, and I can’t shake the feeling that Texas goes to Columbia and loses a weird one.
Prediction: Loss
LSU | Nov. 14 | Baton Rouge
These are the kinds of games that troll Lane Kiffin lives for. Conversely, these are the kinds of games that Steve Sarkisian teams are usually very up for. Outside of Ohio State last year, they seemingly thrive on going into tough places to play and making a statement. LSU is effectively a brand-new team on offense, both in system and in personnel, so I would feel better about it if it were earlier in the season. We’ve already seen Texas outduel Sam Leavitt on a big stage, and I don’t know if sophomore running back Dilin Jones will be as effective as Cam Skattebo was in the CFP. This has the makings of a shootout, and again, I would take Texas’s top-end talent over LSU’s in that matchup.
Prediction: Win
Arkansas | Nov. 21 | Fayetteville
Much like Jon Sumrall at Florida, I expect Ryan Silverfield to get it going relatively quickly in Fayetteville. However, I don’t think he has the horses to get it done in 2026. They’ve almost completely cycled through their defense from a year ago, which was an absolute sieve, so that may make things better for them. KJ Jackson had an incredible game in relief last year against Texas, but the Longhorns will be more prepared for him, and I don’t think they’ve done enough to improve on the line, look for another big game from Simmons and the Texas pass rush.
Prediction: Win
Texas A&M | Nov. 27 | College Station
The Aggies made some big upgrades offensively, especially along the line, but I still don’t buy into Marcel Reed. He looked like a world beater against some really bad defenses, then struggled to take care of the ball against the best units he faced. Reed threw an interception in eight of their 13 games a year ago, including two turnovers against Texas and Miami to end their season. As much as it pains me to say it, Mike Elko is a good coach and should have them ready to play in the game, but Reed’s continued inconsistencies give the Longhorns the edge in this one.
So we’ve got Texas at 10-2 in the regular season, hitting the over and nearly guaranteeing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Weigh in with the poll and let us know what you think.
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