Predicting the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff

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The end of the 2025 season is fast approaching, but the College Football Playoff is only just beginning this week with a set of four on-campus games in the opening round. Last season, we didn’t see any close games in the first round, but the potential is there in 2025 for more intrigue as we start the race to crown a champion.

Today, we’ll be going game-by-game, providing some keys and predictions for how each of the first-round matchups will play out.

Alabama (9) at Oklahoma (8)

Friday, Dec. 19, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN) – Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

The CFP committee didn’t feel like saving the suspense, as it provided fans with what should be the tightest of the matchups on night one. It also happens to be one of two rematches from the regular season we’re getting in the first round. Alabama is favored on the road by 1.5 points despite losing 23-21 in Tuscaloosa about a month ago.

The previous matchup was a bit of a rock fight, with Alabama being doomed by three turnovers. Ty Simpson had a solid day through the air, going for 326 yards, one touchdown and one interception returned for a touchdown, but the Tide rushed for just 80 yards total. Alabama doesn’t have a good rushing attack overall (116.2 yards per game, No. 117 in FBS), and it shouldn’t bank on finding success in that area against Oklahoma’s great front. So does Simpson have another great game in him to perhaps pull out a win this time?

Flipping to the other side of the ball, the Sooners haven’t been exactly known for offensive clinics this year, rather relying on their defense to hold down opponents. John Mateer stole the show at the start of the year, but hasn’t quite been the same player since missing time with a hand injury in the middle of the season. Furthermore, Alabama boasts one of the better secondaries in the country, holding opposing passing attacks to 169.2 yards per game.

Alabama got its lunch money stolen against Georgia in the SEC Championship thanks to Georgia’s defensive dominance. Going out on the road against another elite unit, I don’t expect some big bounce-back for the Tide.

The pick: Oklahoma wins 24-16

Miami (10) at Texas A&M (7)

Saturday, Dec. 20, Noon (ABC/ESPN) – Kyle Field (College Station, TX)

If it weren’t for a loss to Texas to close out the regular season, Texas A&M likely would’ve had a first-round bye. Instead, the Aggies will host Miami in what should be a rocking environment at Kyle Field. Similarly, Miami could’ve been positioned much higher if it had been able to avoid bad losses to Louisville and SMU.

Miami look to get the ball in the hands of star freshman receiver Malachi Toney, who has been the centerpiece of the offense along with running back Mark Fletcher. Texas A&M boasts one of the top pass rushes in the nation and will have the home crowd at its back, but Miami has done a great job protecting Carson Beck this year, with the fifth-best sack percentage in the country at 2.82 percent. Because of the pass rush, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami rely more on its ground game if it’s able to get to Texas A&M’s middling run defense.

On the other side of the ball, quarterback Marcel Reed has been one of the nation’s breakouts this year with his dual-threat ability. He’ll have the help of Reuben Owens and one of the nation’s top rushing offenses, but the Hurricanes have been solid defensively this year, leaving little room for error. Furthermore, something to be wary of could be the kicking game, as Texas A&M has converted just 62.5 percent of its field goal attempts this year.

This matchup seems a bit closer than I was expecting after looking at the numbers. Miami has had the production to show it can hang with Texas A&M, even though the Aggies looked like one of the best teams in the country heading into the final week of the season. I still think the pass rush could make a big difference, though, as Miami hasn’t faced anything like it’ll face on Saturday.

The pick: Texas A&M wins 27-21

Tulane (11) at Ole Miss (6)

Saturday, Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. (TNT) – Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)

This is another matchup we saw earlier in the year, with Ole Miss toppling Tulane by a final score of 45-10 back in September. On paper, this one still seems pretty lopsided a few months later, with the Rebels being favored by about 16 points per SP+.

When looking at areas where Tulane might be able to find some success, the run game might be the answer. Ole Miss is allowing 157.1 rushing yards per game, and the Green Wave were able to run for 178 yards in the first matchup. Tulane hasn’t been all that impressive running the ball this year, but it’ll have to find advantages anywhere it can, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s dual-threat ability will have to play a factor.

But running the ball won’t matter if Tulane falls behind early, and that could certainly happen with this combination of the Ole Miss passing attack and the Tulane secondary. Currently, Ole Miss is throwing for 296.6 yards per game with Trinidad Chambliss, while Tulane is surrendering 255.2 passing yards per game.

I’d love to tell you this game should be closer than the first time, but unfortunately, it seems like we might be in for another blowout. Even without Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss should roll.

The pick: Ole Miss wins 42-16

James Madison (12) at Oregon (5)

Saturday, Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m. (TNT) – Autzen Stadium (Eugene, OR)

The final matchup this weekend might be more intriguing than you would guess based on the 21-point spread in favor of the Ducks. Oregon has been quietly dominant this season, but James Madison is no slouch either and boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

The name of the game for James Madison is the rushing attack, which has been humming along to the tune of 240.8 yards per game this year led by running back Wayne Knight and quarterback Alonza Barnett II. Oregon has been solid stopping the run this year, but its secondary is even stronger. James Madison hasn’t relied much on Barnett throwing the ball, and it shouldn’t do so either if it hopes to pull off the upset.

Flipping to the other side of the ball, James Madison ranks No. 3 in the country in total yards allowed per game (255.9), but it hasn’t faced anything of Oregon’s caliber yet. Oregon has a pretty balanced attack with Noah Whittington rushing the ball and Dante Moore throwing to a great group of receivers. James Madison’s run defense has done the heavy lifting, so Oregon might opt to air it out a bit more.

Numbers-wise, this matchup is plenty more interesting than expected on the surface. It goes to show how dominant James Madison has been this year on both sides of the ball, and if anything for Big Ten fans, this game gives us a glimpse of how JMU head coach Bob Chesney will hope to operate at UCLA in the coming years. I think Oregon wins, but the Dukes cover.

The pick: Oregon wins 34-20

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