Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide

Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide

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Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide
TALLAHASSEE, FL – AUGUST 30: Florida State Seminoles and Alabama Crimson Tide line up during a college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Florida State Seminoles on August 30th, 2025 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL. (Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Florida State Seminoles (1-1, 0-1 ACC) are headed to Tuscaloosa to meet the 10th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0, 1-0 SEC) for the second part of their consecutive home-and-home series on Saturday afternoon at a sold-out (100,000) Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and will be televised by ABC.

In last year’s win, FSU snapped Alabama’s 23-game season-opening win streak with a 31-17 upset win over the No. 8 Tide. The Seminoles ran for 230 yards and four touchdowns, while holding Alabama to just 87 rushing yards and no rushing scores. After the FSU loss, the Tide went on to win their next 8 games, play for the SEC Championship, and reach the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.

FSU head coach Mike Norvell is 1-0 against Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, and he has five wins over SEC opponents, with two wins each over Florida and LSU and the win over Alabama. Since 2020, his five regular-season non-conference wins over SEC programs are the most in the country. Overall, the Tide owns a 3-2-1 advantage in the series, including a 2-0 mark in Tuscaloosa.

The Tide have only lost 37 games since 2007, and Saturday’s matchup with FSU will mark the 31st time during that period when Alabama will have the opportunity for revenge against the team that handed them their previous loss. In those prior 30 rematches, Alabama owns a 26-4 (.867) record. Alabama has won 89 consecutive games against unranked opponents at home. The Tide’s last loss to an unranked opponent at home came on Nov. 17, 2007, in a 21-14 loss to ULM.

The Seminoles are coming off a disappointing 27-24 loss to No. 19 SMU on a last-second field goal, despite forcing 4 turnovers, yet only converting them into 7 points. FSU converted just 2 of 15 third-down opportunities (13.3%), while SMU finished 8 of 14 (57.1%) on third downs; most of those sustained crucial drives that helped the Mustangs outgain FSU 585 to 324 in total yards.

For the season, the Noles’ offense is ranked 97th in the nation in 3rd Down Conversions with just a 35.7% rate on 10-of-28 attempts. Meanwhile, Alabama leads the nation in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 1 out of 23 attempts (4.3%) through their first two games of the season.

FSU’s struggling defense is allowing 452 total yards per game (116th), 351 yards passing (127th), 41 first downs (135th) in first-down defense, 6.8 yards allowed per play (118th), and 4-of-5 (80%) in red zone defense (135th).

Alabama normally utilizes a 4-2-5 scheme that employs a nickel safety, or ‘husky,’ which relies on versatility over a traditional linebacker role. They have recorded seven sacks and held opponents to a total of just 65 rushing yards, while scoring defensive touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, with linebacker Caleb Woodson leading the team with 13 tackles.

The Tide’s offense is led by first-year starting QB Keelon Russell with a 64.2 completion percentage, running back Daniel Hill with a 5.6 average along with 3 TDs, and wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, who is averaging 19.2 yards per reception.

Florida State is trending as a 18.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 48.5 points according to FanDuel.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
  • Curt Weiler (season record: 2-0, 1-1 ATS)

I went back and checked. Frank was the only one on our TN staff who had the guts to pick FSU to beat Alabama last year.

I’m sure he will again. But I doubt anyone else does, and with good reason considering the belief about the program and in Mike Norvell right now.

Alabama 42, FSU 13

  • Jacob Smith (season record: 2-0)

I have had an epiphany in the last few hours. Keelon Russell and Ashton Daniels are the same tier of quarterback. Consider their stats: neither impressed in wins against a non-conference cupcake and a conference opponent. Alabama may have won by 30+ in both games, yes. I get that. Call me crazy, but FSU has a genuine shot to win this. If it’s not a win, it’s going to be much closer than people think.

Besides, Mike Norvell has defeated every non-Florida regular-season SEC opponent he’s faced. So…

NO. I cannot. I can’t choose FSU. Sorry, fellas. I look forward to this being completely wrong and Frank being the only correct pick here, as usual.

Alabama 31, FSU 21

  • LastNoleOfKrypton (season record: 2-0)

Changes are coming for FSU football, but nothing will happen anytime soon before this game kicks off. I really wish I could see a scenario where FSU is competitive or even wins, but this one can get ugly quickly, and I expect it will.

Standouts for FSU? Kromah and Duce.

Alabama 45, FSU 17

  • NoleThruandThru (season record: 2-0)

I’m just here so I don’t get fined.

Alabama 48, FSU 17

  • Jordan Silversmith (season record: 2-0)

I mean, I’m not totally sure what to even say. Mike Norvell usually gets his team up for the big games, and they are usually closer than we expect.

But as the years go on, almost nothing from Norvell can be guaranteed anymore. Sure, FSU might keep it close in the first quarter as the teams feel each other out. However, it won’t be an interesting game by the second half, and the mess on now-President Richard McCullough’s plate will keep growing.

Alabama covers

Alabama 41, FSU 17

  • Tony Morris (season record: 1-0)

Last year Bama got jumped in Tallahassee. This year they’re waiting at the door with a frying pan and a packed Bryant-Denny. Bama’s run D is elite, and our defense just let SMU throw a parade. Kromah will still find a couple holes because that’s what he does, but Tuscaloosa isn’t handing out participation trophies. They score in bunches, we sneak in a couple late scores so it doesn’t look like a crime scene, and if this thing really gets away from us, it might be the last time we see Norvell on the sideline.

Revenge, and maybe a coaching search by Sunday.

Alabama 35, FSU 17

  • Jessi Wynn (season record: 2-0)

A lot has happened around Florida State in the past few weeks, from the loss to SMU to the leadership transition within the athletics department. Now, FSU has to turn the page quickly as they head on the road to face No. 10 Alabama. As much as I’d love to pick the Seminoles here, with Alabama looking to get revenge from last season and the way this season has gone so far, I think the Crimson Tide will be able to make more plays down the stretch to come away with the win.

Alabama 34, FSU 24

  • Jon Marchant (season record: 1-0)

While Alford’s firing may provide a sliver of hope for the future, on the field that future remains firmly fixed on the horizon.

FSU’s OL and QB play have taken a large step back this season, and its QB play last year was average at best. FSU is, simply put, wasting the talent at RB and WR this season.

On the defensive side, the loss of block-eater Darrell Jackson up front has been precipitous. Defensive coordinator Tony White is coordinating the second year of a scheme which requires aggression and blitzes in order to function because of the confusion it needs to cause for opponent blocking schemes; aggression White largely refuses to commit to. On top of and related to that, the secondary is often out of place and doesn’t communicate.

FSU is so dysfunctional and devoid of talent at the positions that matter the most that Alabama doesn’t matter much, insofar as the Crimson Tide don’t have these issues. I would not expect last year’s fun and shocking win to be repeated.
Alabama 44, FSU 13

  • Matt Minnick (season record: 2-0, 2-0 ATS)

Last week I called for a close contest (28-23 SMU) when most were predicting a double-digit loss, largely due to Norvell’s historical success at home in early-season big games. Playing on the road is a different story. Florida State hasn’t won a game away from Doak Campbell Stadium since 2023, and even that year featured several “much closer than they should have been” road wins.

Beyond the lack of road success, the Seminoles are downright offensive on third downs, with baffling play-calling and disappointing execution featured strongly on both sides of the ball. That’s not a recipe for success against anyone, let alone a top 15 team. I’m not convinced Alabama is a true title contender, but I don’t think it ultimately matters in this one.

Bama 35, FSU 10

  • Tim Scribble (season record: 2-0)

I do not expect a repeat of last year’s upset win by the Seminoles. Too many question marks surrounding play calling on both sides of the ball.

Alabama 38, FSU 16

  • Frank DeNole (season record: 1-1)

This will finally be the game when everything comes together for the Noles. The players and coaches all know what is on the line. Everyone is playing for their futures at FSU.

This game will follow a similar storyline to what we witnessed last year against the Bama. The Seminoles might not dominate all three positional units for the entire game, but FSU will win the offensive, defensive, and special teams battles in the end because the FSU players will give 110% more effort, they will want it more, and they will play with more heart than their deeper and more talented Red Tide opponents.

FSU Seminoles 27, Tide Podz 24

  • Perry Kostidakis (season record: 1-1, 1-1 ATS)

I was able to delude myself last time out that Florida State wouldn’t be defined by a weird Week 0 game, that perhaps the staff actually did hold back in the opener with the intentions of preserving plays and players, that a tune-up game would actually serve as a tune-up game.

Instead, I saw the Seminoles essentially get gift-wrapped a game and still look like they had no business on the same field as SMU. All the concerning bits we saw in the opener — third down issues, sketchy trenches, porous pass defense — were once again features against the Mustangs. Now, facing an Alabama team that still has last year’s upset on the mind and already got its scare-against-an-inferior-opponent game out of the way last week against Kentucky, I have no faith in an inconceivable about-face from FSU.

The glimmer of hope? I don’t think this game is going to be as ugly as some think, even if there’s a final score that seems like it was. It won’t be pretty, but it won’t be “avert your eyes” level until the Tide finally break things open with a pair of late touchdowns. At least there’s a guaranteed win on its way next weekend.

Alabama 37, FSU 24

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: How to watch, stream, odds

Date

  • Saturday, September 19th

Time

  • 3:30 p.m. ET

Watch/Stream

Listen

Spread

  • -18.5, Alabama

Over/Under

  • 48.5 points

Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker

This week’s TN member guest picker is RWHUGHESJR, a long-time TN member who joined on December 8, 2009 at 05:33:07 a.m. 

This game appears to all onlookers as David taking on Goliath. But David won Round One. Goliath is not used to being overwhelmed by lesser opponents. Look how long Vandy took to finally win. Look at poor Kentucky winning last 29 years ago. And 70 years ago before that. You get it. Alabama doesn’t like losing. And to be destroyed in a game where they are favored, they hate it worse.

Well, we painted that target proudly on our chest last year. And we have worn it with honor for the past year. We are an equally proud university. We are one of the youngest football programs in the nation, but more successful than most all other institutions.

And against this backdrop, we meet again on Saturday. Our team has given no reason in two games to think we have the right to be on the field in Tuscaloosa. Alabama, for its part, has shown it remains a top program in the nation. And Alabama has been waiting for a year, being reminded daily by their coaches of their pitiful showing in Doak Campbell Stadium. This game will be the revenge Alabama has waited a year for. As much as I love my Noles, this game is over in the second quarter. Alabama cruises to a 30-point victory, and we won’t reach double digits.

Alabama 38, FSU 9

*The TN member with the closest final score prediction in the comment section below will be given the opportunity to be a guest picker later this season if they are interested in participating.

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