Preseason College Football Playoff predictions for 2026 season

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All of the buzz during the offseason has been the potential expansion of the College Football Playoff, but there will still be just 12 teams in the bracket in 2026. That will make the race to the CFP as tight as ever, with parity racing through college football and growing by the year.

The race to the CFP last season was one of the closest in the history of the playoff format, as Miami (FL), Notre Dame and Alabama were all vying for the final two at-large spots in the field. In the end, Alabama and Miami got into the bracket, and the Hurricanes made a run all the way to the national title game.

All three of those teams are expected to factor heavily into the race again this season, along with many others. Who will make it through the gauntlet and into the CFP at the end of the season?

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1. Georgia (13-0, SEC Champion)

Georgia has been the big brother in the SEC for a number of years now in the SEC, and Kirby Smart and company are set up to run the table and win another conference crown this season.

Georgia has a number of returners on both sides of the ball, including Gunnar Stockton at quarterback. Stockton may not be getting the same level of NFL or Heisman Trophy buzz as some of his counterparts around the country, but he has plenty of experience and a knack for making timely plays in clutch moments.

While an SEC schedule is never easy, Georgia will be happy with how this draw turned out. The Bulldogs don’t play Texas, LSU or Texas A&M in the regular season and get Oklahoma at home. Road trips to Alabama and Ole Miss could prove tricky, but we’re backing Smart’s squad to run the table.

2. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten Champion)

Ohio State is flying a bit under the radar after being taken down by both Indiana and Miami at the end of last season, but the Buckeyes have a new set of NFL eyes coming in to oversee the offense in Arthur Smith. The Julian Sayin-Jeremiah Smith duo is also back for another year, and both players will fancy their chances at making a run at the Heisman Trophy this season.

Our projection has the Buckeyes dropping their Week 2 road clash against Texas. Ohio State also gets both Indiana and USC on the road during the regular season, but it gets a bye in between. Oregon then comes to Columbus for a blockbuster November matchup, but we’ll give the Buckeyes the nod in those games. Ohio State runs the table in conference play and secures the No. 2 seed with a conference title.

3. Texas Tech (13-0, Big 12 Champion)

Is Texas Tech going to be as good as it would be if Brendan Sorsby were playing quarterback? Probably not. But either way, Will Hammond has proven that he can get the job done in the past and should be able to do so once again in 2026. While Texas Tech might be exploitable late in games because of its quarterback situation, the Big 12 still doesn’t have the same level of talent that the Red Raiders do up and down the roster.

Joey McGuire reeled in another very good transfer portal class, which should give his squad some cushion against a soft non-conference schedule and a conference slate that does not include BYU. Even with Hammond under center instead of Sorsby, we have Texas Tech running the table and getting a first-round bye with a 13-0 record.

4. Texas (11-1)

Texas drops a road game against LSU in conference play in this projection, but a home win over Ohio State in non-conference play and wins over Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M in SEC play are good enough to get the Longhorns a first-round bye in this situation. While Lane Kiffin’s Tigers get the spot in the SEC title game thanks to tiebreakers, Texas gets the spot in the top four after getting championship weekend off.

The Arch Manning critics will be down on Texas this year, but the Longhorns still have one of the best play-callers in the nation and now have one of the best wide receivers in Cam Coleman. If Manning continues to improve, which he did during the back half of last season, this Texas offense should be nearly unstoppable by the end of the season.

5. Notre Dame (11-1)

Notre Dame stumbles during a tough road test against BYU in this projection, but the Irish get wins over Miami and SMU to firmly cement their spot in the top five. While Texas’ quality of wins get the first-round bye, Marcus Freeman and company won’t mind getting to play the Group of Five champion in South Bend on opening weekend.

Notre Dame should be elite on both sides of the ball, with CJ Carr leading the way on offense and arguably the best cornerback in the country in Leonard Moore on defense. Even if the offense is more pass-heavy this season, the Irish are still set up for a major success in 2026.

6. Miami (FL) (12-1, ACC Champion)

This may feel low for a 12-1 conference champion, especially one that made it all the way to the national title game last season. However, with a loss to Notre Dame in the middle of the season and no SMU or Louisville on the schedule this season, the quality of wins just won’t be there to get into bye territory unless Mario Cristobal and company are undefeated in the regular season.

Still, that doesn’t mean that Miami won’t be a dangerous team to deal with when it does get to the CFP. Darian Mensah is our preseason Heisman favorite and should be one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football this season, and Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney give the Hurricanes one of the best skill groups in America. Nobody will want to see The U when January rolls around.

7. Oregon (11-2, Big Ten Runner-Up)

The Ducks avoid Indiana during the regular season this year, but they do have road games against both Ohio State and USC to worry about. We’re giving them a split in those two games and a second loss to the Buckeyes in the conference title game, but that’s more than enough to earn a home playoff game for Dan Lanning and company.

The offense, despite returning Dante Moore at quarterback and a majority of the skill group from last season, is going to be the big question. Offensive coordinator Will Stein is gone, so things may look a bit different on that side of the ball. Lanning will be running a very experienced defense on the other side that very well could be one of the best units in the country.

8. LSU (11-2, SEC Runner-Up)

LSU was a tricky one to seed in this exercise. On one hand, Lane Kiffin and company have a win over Texas in this scenario, but the Longhorns’ depth of wins puts them in a different tier in the rankings. Outside of that, LSU has wins over an Alabama team that has an uncertain quarterback situation and a good Texas A&M team (their loss in our projection is to Ole Miss). That just doesn’t stack up with what the Longhorns have.

The loss to Georgia in the SEC title game doesn’t hurt LSU here, but it’s hard to put the Tigers ahead of Miami or Notre Dame while Oregon is more of a coin flip.

From a football perspective, things could certainly get rocky with a new roster and a mostly new coaching staff. However, LSU has a ton of talent and Kiffin and defensive coordinator Blake Baker are two of the best play-callers in the nation. Them figuring it out in year one feels like the safe bet.

9. Indiana (11-1)

At this point, it’s just a bad idea to bet against Curt Cignetti. Indiana is breaking in a new quarterback and a number of new receivers, though Charlie Becker will be back. The Hoosiers are losing a large contingent of the James Madison core that came to Bloomington with Cignetti, but another strong portal class should cover for that.

Josh Hoover is a talented quarterback who could be in for a big year in Indiana’s offense with the talent around him, and the defense under Bryant Haines should be elite once again. However, the Hoosiers have to settle for a No. 9 seed in this projection after dropping a game to Ohio State. That leaves the best wins for Indiana as follows: at Michigan, at Washington and vs. USC. That’s just not on par with the teams above Indiana in these rankings.

10. BYU (11-1)

Can the Big 12 really get two teams into the CFP this season? In this situation, where BYU takes down Notre Dame at home but drops the Holy War on the road against Utah, this is a two-bid league. BYU misses out on a spot in the conference title game, with Houston taking its place and losing to Texas Tech instead.

BYU returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier along with head coach Kalani Sitake, which should give the Cougars a very high floor this season. If BYU can get that pivotal win over the Irish on Oct. 17, the CFP could be calling.

11. Oklahoma (10-2)

These last few spots could go any number of ways, but Oklahoma returns John Mateer at quarterback and Brent Venables should have another very good defense that the Sooners can hang their hat on.

In truth, the schedule sets up nicely for Oklahoma to get to at least 10 wins this season. A trip to Athens to play Georgia is a tough ask, and the Red River Rivalry will be tough against a Texas squad that might start the season as the No. 1 team in the nation. Outside of that, however, the Sooners get Ole Miss and Texas A&M at home. That, plus a non-conference road win at Michigan, would be enough to get the final at-large nod here.

12. Boise State (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)

The Group of Five should have a number of strong teams once again, but Boise State coming out of the new-look Pac-12 is enough to get it the nod here as the final team in the field. A season-opening loss on the road against Oregon will put the Broncos behind the 8-ball, but they are superior to every other roster in the Pac-12 and have an experienced quarterback in Maddux Madsen.

Next Out: SMU (11-2, ACC Runner-Up), Houston (11-2, Big 12 Runner-Up), Ole Miss (9-3), Texas A&M (9-3), USC (9-3)

First Round Predictions

No. 9 Indiana defeats No. 8 LSU

No. 5 Notre Dame defeats No. 12 Boise State

No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 11 Oklahoma

No. 7 Oregon defeats No. 10 BYU

Quarterfinal Predictions

No. 9 Indiana defeats No. 1 Georgia

No. 4 Texas defeats No. 5 Notre Dame

No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 3 Texas Tech

No. 7 Oregon defeats No. 2 Ohio State

Semifinal Predictions

No. 4 Texas defeats No. 9 Indiana

No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 7 Oregon

National Championship

No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 4 Texas

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