Projected Final CFP Rankings After Alabama Jumped Notre Dame
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Everyone, take a very, very deep breath here. I’m going to clue you in on a little secret that no one will particularly like.
You just saw the final College Football Playoff rankings, at least when it comes to who the top ten teams will probably be.
It’s the super-boring reality that no one will want to buy, because it’s no fun. The CFP committee (maybe) just gave you the rankings, and that’s it for two reasons.
What Will the Final College Football Playoff Rankings Be Now That Alabama Moved Past Notre Dame?
1) In the College Football Playoff era, all the conference championship games have been total chalk. Alabama beating Georgia in an SEC Championship isn’t really a game-changing upset.
Purdue over Michigan in 2022, that would’ve been an upset. Texas Tech will probably rock BYU, which matters because …
2) I will believe the CFP will change last year’s precedent when I see it. Last season, in the first year of the 12-team playoff, the committee made the call to not “punish” conference championship losers.
Committee chair Hunter Yurachek has been cagey, but that’s because the committee leaves itself several outs. He said “idle teams can move,” and he didn’t say conference championship losers would move down.
Here’s the best guess call – and this could be very off if the committee changes its focus – on what the final College Football Playoff rankings will be after Alabama moved past Notre Dame on Tuesday night.
12. North Texas Mean Green
Sticking with the call of North Texas being in. The big key on Tuesday night was the Mean Green being ranked ahead of James Madison. Now, if they win, they’re in.
11. Virginia Cavaliers
If Duke beats Virginia, then North Texas or Tulane will be in this spot, and James Madison – who will beat Troy – will get in at the 12.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This is a best guess, but again, until the committee shows otherwise, after last year, assume it’s staying with its “conference championship losers won’t get punished” thing.
It’ll make it easier not to move BYU down from the 11 after the Big 12 Championship – assuming a loss to Texas Tech.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
The committee just put Alabama in the College Football Playoff.
The X factor isn’t if Alabama loses, it’s if it wins, because then it would (probably) move up to the three. If it loses, it’ll likely stay at the nine unless BYU wins.
That’s why it’s such a massive deal that the Crimson Tide went from 10 to 9 – there’s now a fail-safe in case it loses, and BYU beats Texas Tech.
8. Oklahoma Sooners
If you’re Oklahoma, you’re rooting hard for the favorites to win this weekend. If Georgia and Texas Tech both win, OU stays at eight, and it gets a home game, likely against Alabama.
7. Texas A&M Aggies
They dropped like a rock, but that’s fine. They’re still getting a College Football Playoff home game unless both Alabama and BYU win.
6. Ole Miss Rebels
If the committee didn’t care this week about Ole Miss losing Lane Kiffin, it won’t care next week, either.
5. Oregon Ducks
There’s no way Oregon can get into the top four if the committee is sticking to the “no punishment” thing, and it can possibly drop as low as seven if everything goes wrong and Texas Tech and Georgia lose.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
There’s something to Texas Tech to play for. If it wins, it keeps this top four spot with bye. However, there’s a chance it could win the Big 12 Championship – sorry, I know, broken record when I bring up the punish thing – and drop to five if Alabama beats Georgia and moves to three.
OR, the committee could choose to move the Red Raiders up to three, but that would “punish” Georgia for losing its conference championship.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
If the Bulldogs lose to Alabama, if the committee adheres to last year’s precedent, they’d move to four. That would be … interesting.
2. Indiana Hoosiers
Again, if the committee is doing this like last year, even if it is a different group with different parts, Indiana can’t and won’t fall further than this if it loses, and the same goes for …
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
No matter how the College Football Playoff committee chooses to do this on Sunday, there’s no way Ohio State falls out of the top four, unless it gets totally blasted.
Related: Who Are the Heisman Trophy Contenders Going Into Championship Weekend?
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 3, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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