Projecting LSU's 2026 Over/Under Win Total
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LSU is arguably the biggest storyline entering the 2026 college football season. After a disappointing ‘25 campaign, the Bayou Bengals made massive changes in an effort to get back to the top. Lane Kiffin was hired from SEC rival Ole Miss and handed all of the resources needed to get LSU back in the mix to win a national title. In addition to the Kiffin hire, the Tigers landed arguably the nation’s top transfer portal class, which included former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt, standout left tackle Jordan Seaton (Colorado), and massive help for a thin receiving corps and coordinator Blake Baker’s defense.
There’s a lot of new in Baton Rouge for ‘26. However, the massive changes are doing nothing to minimize expectations. With Kiffin’s track record of winning at a high level, along with a revamped roster, LSU is already receiving buzz as a projected playoff team.
Although expectations are high, LSU won’t catch any breaks from its schedule. The Tigers open with Clemson, followed by SEC contests against Ole Miss and Texas A&M in September. And in November, Kiffin’s squad faces off against Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood debate and project what LSU’s over/under win total should be for the ’26 regular season:
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Projecting LSU’s 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total
Steven Lassan: 9.5
Yes, LSU is going through a lot of change this offseason. And yes, there will be plenty of drama around Kiffin. However, I think this team should be squarely in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The new nine-game SEC slate adds more difficulty to this projection, but this schedule is not overwhelming for a team with one of the top coaches in the SEC and a roster capable of winning double-digit games.
Leavitt is a good fit for Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr.’s offense. The skill talent was restocked through the portal, while Kiffin and Weis should get more production out of the rushing attack than the program has had in recent years. Additionally, Seaton was a massive get up front to build around in the trenches. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker is one of the SEC’s top assistants and should quickly find the right mix to keep this unit near the top of the conference.
If Kiffin’s high-powered offense fires on all cylinders, to go with one of the SEC’s top defenses, LSU has a viable path to 10-2 and a spot in the playoff.
Kyle Wood:9.5
Even though this is Year 1 for Kiffin at LSU, a 9-3 season could be seen as a bit of a disappointment. That’s because the Tigers plucked the mercurial coach away from Ole Miss to win national championships, and just three regular-season losses could keep them out of the CFP entirely. Still, it’s hard to set the bar much higher than that given the level of turnover this roster and coaching staff endured and the caliber of opponents on tap.
Kiffin established a high floor with the Rebels, winning 10-plus games in four of the last five seasons. And given his offensive acumen and the talent the Portal King was able to bring in with even more resources at LSU, he should quickly build a similarly high floor. Whether the Tigers reach double-digit wins in the regular season — which they quietly haven’t accomplished since the undefeated 2019 team — depends on their performance in a handful of toss-up games against fellow CFP hopefuls.
It helps that Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas all come to Baton Rouge. But LSU is on the road at Ole Miss and Tennessee, where Kiffin has made himself Public Enemy No. 1 at his last two SEC head coaching stops. Expectations are justifiably high for this team given the sum of its parts. But can Kiffin take that whole over the top?
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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