Projecting Nebraska's 2026 Over/Under Win Total
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Nebraska is one of the most intriguing teams in spring practice for the 2026 college football season. The Cornhuskers have recorded back-to-back bowl trips but have not won more than seven games since a 9-4 mark in ‘16. Although the ‘26 season is still months away, Nebraska isn’t getting much consideration for a spot in way-too-early top 25s. Instead, the Cornhuskers are projected to finish outside of the top half of the Big Ten.
If coach Matt Rhule is going to exceed way-too-early expectations in ‘26, both sides of the ball have key concerns to answer. Quarterback Dylan Raiola’s transfer to Oregon opens a quarterback battle between UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea and sophomore TJ Lateef. The strength of the offense is a line returning three starters, along with a receiving corps featuring Jacory Barney and Nyziah Hunter. The defense struggled last season by allowing 28 points a contest in Big Ten play and giving up 175.4 yards a game on the ground. New coordinator Rob Aurich guided San Diego State to a spot among the nation’s top defenses and is one of the Big Ten’s top assistant hires for ‘26. How much progression will this unit show under Aurich’s watch this spring?
Is Nebraska poised for a step forward in ’26? Or will the Cornhuskers hover around seven victories again?
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood debate and project what Nebraska’s over/under win total should be for the ’26 regular season:
Projecting Nebraska’s 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total
Steven Lassan: 7.5
I could see 6.5 or 7.5 as the early over/under for the Cornhuskers, but I like the higher number entering spring practice. I suspect Vegas will have coach Matt Rhule’s team as an underdog to Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Iowa. Throw in a road trip to Illinois and a home game against Washington, and it’s easy to see how six or seven wins is the early mark for Nebraska.
Rhule has the Cornhuskers seemingly on the right track with back-to-back seven-win seasons. However, another major step forward in the win column in ‘26 won’t be easy. This spring is the first glimpse at a quarterback battle featuring UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea and TJ Lateef, and coordinator Dana Holgorsen has to find a replacement for standout running back Emmett Johnson. The defense brings back six starters and should benefit from the arrival of new play-caller Rob Aurich after engineering one of the nation’s top defenses at San Diego State.
Related: Who Will Be the Next Texas Tech? 4 Teams That Can Make a Run in ’26
Kyle Wood: 6.5
The Cornhuskers have collapsed in back-to-back seasons under Rhule’s watch. A 5-1 start gave way to a 1-5 finish in 2024. Nebraska similarly open 5-1 a season ago only to go 2-4 the rest of the way. On paper, it looks like a similar outcome could play out in 2026. The back half of the Cornhuskers’ schedule is even harder than what they’ve been up against the last two seasons. Four of their final six games are on the road and three of their last seven are against teams that just appeared in the College Football Playoff.
Nebraska’s quarterback competition and the departure of its best all-around player (Johnson) could see the team drop one of the early games it projects to be favored in. If the defense improves as expected, the Cornhuskers’ offense will have a wider margin for error than they did a season ago. But this team isn’t near the top of the Big Ten. The nature of the schedule and makeup of the roster should have Nebraska once again on the cusp of bowl eligibility.
Related: Big Ten Football: Way-Too-Early 2026 QB Rankings
Related: Big Ten Football: Spring 2026 Power Rankings
Related: Who Will Be the Next Texas Tech? 4 Teams That Can Make a Run at the CFP in 2026
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 10, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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