Projecting Notre Dame’s 2026 Over/Under Win Total
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Notre Dame nearly had as newsy a season in 2025 as it had the previous year, when the Fighting Irish played for the College Football Playoff national championship. Coach Marcus Freeman’s team dropped two tight games to start the year to Miami and Texas A&M and spent the rest of the season trying to make up for those defeats.
What followed was a 10-game winning streak, which included some truly lopsided results. Notre Dame made it a legitimate question for the CFP committee to pick between the Irish and the Hurricanes, who had the head-to-head win. Ultimately, Miami got the nod. Notre Dame was so offended at its perceived playoff snub that it opted out of the postseason entirely.
That brings us to 2026. The Fighting Irish once again profile as one of the top teams in the country. Quarterback CJ Carr is back with many of his top targets, though the backfield will be in transition. And defensive back Leonard Moore returns to lead a standout unit on the other side of the ball. But Notre Dame also has something extra to prove the way the 2025 campaign ended in controversy. The margin for error is slim after the Irish, without the chance to play in a a conference championship game, missed the playoff at 10-2.
The schedule is favorable on paper, though there’s a highly anticipated rematch with Miami as well as a trip to BYU. Can Notre Dame build on that 10-win regular season? Or are the Irish a regression candidate?
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood analyze and hypothesize where Notre Dame’s over/under win total should be set for the ’26 regular season:
Projecting Notre Dame’s 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total
Steven Lassan:11.5
Setting the over/under at 11.5 is a little bold. However, Notre Dame could be favored in all 12 of its regular season matchups in a favorable ‘26 schedule. Just three teams – BYU, SMU, and Miami – from Athlon’s way-too-early top 25 appear on the Fighting Irish’s schedule next fall. Two of those games – SMU and Miami – take place in South Bend. Neutral site affairs against Wisconsin (Lambeau Field) and Navy (Gillette Stadium) are intriguing, but Notre Dame should still be a double-digit favorite in those games.
Although the schedule is favorable, it’s not the only reason why I would set the over/under at 11.5. Coach Marcus Freeman’s team certainly won’t lack motivation after last year’s College Football Playoff snub. While there are holes to fill on both sides of the ball, the roster is loaded for a run at the national title. The Fighting Irish bring back 15 starters, including quarterback CJ Carr, cornerback Leonard Moore, and receivers Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse. Running back Jeremiyah Love is a big loss, but Aneyas Williams is ready for a larger role in the backfield. And after struggling early in the ‘25 season, the defense played significantly better in the second half of the year.
With a favorable schedule, one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, and very few holes on the roster, contending for the national title should be the goal for Notre Dame in ‘26.
Kyle Wood:10.5
Freeman has established such a high standard in South Bend that another season of 10-plus wins should be the expectation. The question is whether he can get this group back to 11-1 (or better) or if there are two (or more) losses on what appears to be a forgiving schedule.
Crucially, Notre Dame will have several weeks before its first true test at BYU. The second half of the schedule, when the Irish will also face Miami, Navy and SMU, is significantly more difficult. All three of ND’s regular season losses in the last two years have come before October. Having time to establish an identity and build momentum before that trying stretch could be what this group needs.
Talent is of no concern for the Irish. Carr should enter his second season under center as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He can count on strong protection and comparable production from the weapons assembled around him in spite of Notre Dame’s NFL departures. While it’s hard to quantify motivation, the playoff snub should be a driving factor for the team throughout the 2026 season on it path back to the CFP. I couldn’t quite get to 11.5 as a projected win total, but don’t be surprised if there’s heavy juice on the over should this number come in at 10.5
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 6, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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