Projecting Ohio State's 2026 Over/Under Win Total
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Repeating as a college football champion isn’t easy, but Ohio State seemed on track to accomplish that goal in 2025 with a 12-0 regular season mark. However, the Buckeyes’ hopes took a massive hit in the Big Ten Championship Game with a loss to Indiana, and coach Ryan Day’s team was upset by Miami in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff to cap a disappointing end to a promising season.
Although the ‘25 campaign ended on a down note, Ohio State will reload and could be the preseason favorite to win it all. Day’s team returns one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in Julian Sayin, along with arguably the best player in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith. Improving the ground attack and solidifying the offensive line are two areas under the spotlight this spring with new coordinator Arthur Smith arriving in Columbus. Additionally, the defense is facing a major overhaul under second-year coordinator Matt Patricia.
Can Ohio State repeat last year’s 12-0 regular season mark? Or will a tougher schedule prevent the Buckeyes from matching that win total?
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood debate and project what Ohio State’s over/under win total should be for the ’26 regular season:
Projecting Ohio State’s 2026 Regular Season Over/Under Win Total
Steven Lassan: 10.5
With quarterback Julian Sayin and receiver Jeremiah Smith leading the way, Ohio State took the No. 1 spot in my way-too-early rankings for 2026. However, the Buckeyes have plenty of questions to answer this spring. The offensive line and rushing attack have to perform better in top matchups. Additionally, the defense has to retool after losing standouts in linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese, safety Caleb Downs, and defensive lineman Kayden McDonald. But as usual in Columbus, the talent level remains high and coach Ryan Day will eventually find the right mix to keep this team in the hunt to win another title.
Ohio State had a relatively favorable path to the Big Ten Championship Game in 2025, but Day’s team will be tested early and often next year. The Buckeyes play at Texas in Week 2 and hit the road for dates versus Iowa, Indiana, and USC in October. That’s followed up by games against Oregon and Michigan at home in November.
I think Ohio State stumbles once in Big Ten play and is a slight underdog to Texas for the huge non-conference matchup in September. I’ll set the over/under at 10.5 going into spring practice.
Kyle Wood: 10.5
Ironically, the only time in the last four years Ohio State lost more than one game in the regular season was 2024, the year they won it all. The Buckeyes have been the definition of dominance since Day took over in 2019, finishing 12-0 twice and posting the second-best record in the FBS (79-12) overall. There’s little reason to doubt that the 2026 team will take a step back with finalists for the Heisman Trophy (Sayin) and Biletnikoff Award (Smith) returning to wreak havoc on the Big Ten.
Ohio State’s schedule is not easy with trips to Texas, Iowa and Indiana along with visits from Oregon and rival Michigan. Given the volume of quality opponents on the Buckeyes’ schedule, there’s a case for the under or perhaps even a lower line. Still, the talent on this roster — even as it loses multiple first-round draft picks once again — will likely embolden bettors to believe another 11 or 12-win regular season is on the way in Columbus. And based on the recent track record, it’s hard to expect anything less.
Related: Big Ten Football: Way-Too-Early 2026 QB Rankings
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 3, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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