Projecting the Second College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings

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Now that we know what the College Football Playoff is looking for, there might not be too many wild changes on Tuesday night when the second round of rankings is released.

For now, the big storyline will be around Virginia and Louisville, who were 14th and 15th, respectively, in the first batch. They'll go hand-in-hand and sink like a stone after their losses this Saturday. 

There likely won't be any massive moves up top – there's a shot Texas A&M moves past Indiana for the two – but any shuffling will be fleeting. Everything continues to be set up for the conference championships. | @PeteFiutak

CFN Projection for the Second College Football Playoff Top 25

The projected final regular season records factor in our predicted wins or losses in conference championships.

25 Tulane Green Wave

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: South Carolina 29-20
Worst Loss: Vanderbilt 17-10

Flip a coin between Tulane and USF for this spot, and throw in James Madison, too. Tulane might have been whacked by UTSA, but the Ole Miss loss was okay. For now, the committee will put the Green Wave in because they beat the Memphis team that beat USF.

24 Missouri Tigers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 22
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: South Carolina 29-20
Worst Loss: Vanderbilt 17-10

There still isn't a big win of note, but the committee won't disrespect the loss to a Texas A&M team that's ripping through everything right now.

23 Iowa Hawkeyes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 20
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Minnesota 25-24
Worst Loss: Iowa State 16-13

One of the pleasant surprises of the first round of rankings, the Hawkeyes won't fall too far. No, they don't have a great win, but they lost to Iowa State, Indiana, and Oregon in battles that were all this close to going the other way.

22 Tennessee Volunteers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 25
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Mississippi State 41-34
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 33-27

The Volunteers will move up a little bit without playing. The three losses to Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma aren't bad, and now the blowout win over Kentucky looks better after what the Wildcats did to Florida.

21 Pitt Panthers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 24
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: NC State 53-24
Worst Loss: West Virginia 31-24

There still isn't an impressive win to chirp about, but it's a hot team with a five-game winning streak. It'll make a move up, but it'll check in just behind the last team it lost to …

20 Louisville Cardinals

Last Week CFP Ranking: 15
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Miami 24-21
Worst Loss: Cal 29-26 OT

The loss to Cal couldn't have come at a worse time. It wasn't a horrible loss, but the Cardinals will still be ranked behind Virginia. Wins over Miami and Pitt will be enough to stick around the top 20.

19 Virginia Cavaliers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 14
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Louisville 30-27
Worst Loss: Wake Forest 13-6

The Cavaliers will plummet, mainly because their great win over Louisville isn't as huge now. The wins over Cal and North Carolina look better, and on the plus side, the road win over the Cardinals will keep them in the top 20.

18 Michigan Wolverines

Last Week CFP Ranking: 21
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Washington 24-7
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 24-13

This will be more of a placeholder ranking than anything else. The Wolverines didn't play this week, but they'll move up a little bit with some of the big losses.

17 Miami Hurricanes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 18
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Notre Dame 27-24
Worst Loss: SMU 26-20

Did the committee watch the Syracuse game, or will it go by the final score and end result? It doesn't really matter – no one won bigger on Saturday, with Virginia and Louisville losing, making it potentially easier to put the Canes in at the end, if USF and Notre Dame both win out. They'll either be 17 or …

16 USC Trojans

Last Week CFP Ranking: 19
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Michigan 45-31
Worst Loss: Illinois 34-32

It'll be around here when the real arguments kick in. USC beating Northwestern will help a little bit, but more than anything else, the committee might not totally buy into Miami quite yet. Like the Hurricanes, USC will be either at the 16 or 17.

15 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Last Week CFP Ranking: 17
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Best Win: Wake Forest 30-29
Worst Loss: NC State 48-36

Having the week after a tough loss will be a positive. There will be an argument in the room about having the Yellow Jackets as the top-ranked ACC team, but for now, that's fine.

14 Vanderbilt Commodores

Last Week CFP Ranking: 16
Record: 8-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Missouri 17-10
Worst Loss: Texas 34-31

It took a lot of work to get by Auburn, but once again, they showed the mettle to hold on in a tight game. It'll take full advantage of the big losses from Virginia and Louisville.

13 Utah Utes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 13 
Record: 7-2 Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Cincinnati 45-10
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 34-10

Nothing changed for the Utes coming off a week to chill. They can't go ahead of BYU, who they lost to, and they're not about to drop.

12 BYU Cougars

Last Week CFP Ranking: 7
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Utah 24-21
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 29-7

Losing at Texas Tech isn't anything to punish too much. There's still a win over Utah – the slot fits.

11 Oklahoma Sooners

Last Week CFP Ranking: 12
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Tennessee 33-27
Worst Loss: Texas 23-6

There might be some thought of putting BYU here, but for now, coming off an off week, Oklahoma will stay right behind Texas.

10 Texas Longhorns

Last Week CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Oklahoma 23-6
Worst Loss: Florida 29-21

It was an off week, but nothing about the overall metrics and landscape changed things enough to knock the Longhorns out of order.

9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Last Week CFP Ranking: 10
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: USC 34-24
Worst Loss: Miami 27-24

Remember, all of the rankings get thrown out next week, and it all starts over, but if the committee likes Notre Dame now, that's not going to stop as long as it keeps winning.

8 Oregon Ducks

Last Week CFP Ranking: 9
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Iowa 18-16
Worst Loss: Indiana 30-20

Oregon finally has a real, restaurant-quality win. It showed the heart to pull off the tough victory over Iowa, and now it'll move up a spot.

7 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Last Week CFP Ranking: 8
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: BYU 29-7
Worst Loss: Arizona State 26-22

There's an off chance it moves up far more after handing BYU its first loss of the season. It won't get enough love to get into the top five, but it'll fit at either the six or seven.

6 Ole Miss Rebels

Last Week CFP Ranking: 6
Record: 9-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Oklahoma 34-26
Worst Loss: Georgia 43-35

Oooooooh, a 49-0 win over The Citadel … Oooooooh. The Rebels stay locked in here, or at worst, will be the seven.

5 Georgia Bulldogs

Last Week CFP Ranking: 5
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Ole Miss 43-35
Worst Loss: Alabama 24-21

They seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. The 41-21 win over Mississippi State on the road was even better than the final score.

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

Last Week CFP Ranking: 4
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Best Win: Georgia 24-21
Worst Loss: Florida State 31-17

The committee loved Bama enough to put it at the 4 in the first rankings, and nothing that happened against LSU changes that.

3 Texas A&M Aggies

Last Week CFP Ranking: 3
Record: 9-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Notre Dame 41-40
Worst Performance: Auburn 16-10

The Aggies might be at two if the committee likes the solid win over Missouri more than IU's close call at Penn State, but it doesn't matter much for now. They'll be, at worst, second overall if they win out.

2 Indiana Hoosiers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 2
Record: 10-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: Oregon 30-20
Worst Performance: Penn State 27-24

Again, this could very easily be Texas A&M, but the gut-check win over Penn State, along with the ten wins, will keep IU in this spot, but it doesn't really matter. If it wins out, it's the one. If it doesn't, it's probably the five.

1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 1
Record: 9-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Texas 14-7
Worst Performance: Washington 24-6

Nothing changes. The Buckeyes went through the motions and beat Purdue, and there won't be any movement even after the wins from Indiana and Texas A&M.

This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 9, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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