Ranking college football’s panic meters after Week 7 upsets
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Week 7 Saturday was one of the most surprising days in recent college football history, as five of the top seven teams in the AP Poll (including the top two) went down.
What, exactly, should we make of that? The combination of transfer culture and standardized revenue-sharing has widened the gap between the power conferences and everyone else. But within the Power 4, it has bunched everyone together, making it inevitable that the best teams in the country will sometimes get into trouble against teams near the bottom of their leagues.
On the other hand, some losses are still very bad. How much should your highly ranked team be panicking, on a one-to-10 scale? Let us discuss it.
Georgia (lost to Auburn, 27-24)
PANIC METER: 2
The Bulldogs gave a game away here. They averaged 6.8 yards per play to the visiting Tigers’ 4.9 but were charitable in allowing Auburn not just to hang around, but to take command of the game for a while. The Dawgs made a handful of special teams errors. Gunner Stockton threw two bad interceptions and fumbled away the possession that led to Auburn’s game-winning field goal. These are reasons to be angry, but they’re also reasons to doubt a repeat. Stockton has his limitations but typically avoids turnovers, and Georgia doesn’t make a lot of mistakes like the ones that cost it this game. A roughing-the-passer penalty that shortened Auburn’s game-winning field goal attempt was an uncharacteristic lapse as well.
At the end of the day, Georgia didn’t lose important ground in the SEC standings, either, given some of the other losses that will appear on this list. Their margin for error is thinner now, and there’s no telling what the long-term consequences might be of letting Auburn score a momentum-building win in Sanford Stadium. If a longtime rival is now rejuvenated and uses this game as a jumping-off point for future contention, the Dawgs will come to regret it more.
Notre Dame (lost to BYU, 28-24)
PANIC METER: 5
It’s hard to be harsh with a team that lost narrowly, on the road, against what is now the No. 2 team in the land. But Notre Dame was facing its first real test of the season, and both the Irish offense and defense had their worst performances of the year. The offense posted a 38 percent success rate, per CollegeFootballData.com, its lowest figure of the year, and also had a 2026-worst 4.8 yards per play. The defense surrendered a season-worst 48 percent success rate and had a particularly hard time against Bear Bachmeier and the BYU passing attack. Not ideal, even though Notre Dame still probably wins if QB CJ Carr remembers how to execute a spike.
The biggest problem is circumstantial. Notre Dame only has one more game against a team that would move the hearts and minds of the playoff selection committee. Losing to Miami in Week 10 would mean asking the committee to accept a 10-2 team whose best wins were SMU and Wisconsin. The Irish saw this movie last season, when they lost to Miami and Texas A&M, and didn’t like the ending. Their season may now come down to that game on Nov. 7.
Miami (beat Florida State, 43-35)
PANIC METER: 3
The Hurricanes get a slot on this list for almost losing to unranked Florida State. In general, let’s award the Canes some grace, because FSU has been salty against some talented teams this year (SMU, Alabama, now Miami) and also because teams sometimes get up for rivalry games.
There is a reason to at least raise an eyebrow, though: Miami’s pass defense. The Canes got torched deep a handful of times even before one considers the back-to-back Hail Mary attempts in double overtime that were either caught and nullified by a penalty or wound up with two players wrestling for the ball. Miami has a whole handful of defensive back injuries at the moment, and without the same pass rush the Canes had last year, the secondary has gotten leaky. This will become a problem once the playoff comes ’round.
Indiana (lost to Ohio State, 19-15)
PANIC METER: 1
The Hoosiers’ 22-game win streak ended on a day when luck finally turned against them. Nick Marsh stepped out of bounds on what should’ve been a game-winning touchdown catch. Leading into this game, the Hoosiers had fumbled 13 times in the past year and a half but retained possession on 11 of those plays. This time, Josh Hoover put the ball on the ground twice, and Ohio State defenders fell on it each time. Two missed field goals didn’t help either.
Indiana’s remaining schedule is extremely favorable, with the toughest game probably being a trip to a mediocre Michigan next week. This remains an elite team. The Hoosiers have slipped this season, but not enough that they’ll fail to make the playoff against this schedule.
Texas (lost to Florida, 27-24)
PANIC METER: 9
Arch Manning took five sacks and fumbled away a comeback opportunity against Florida. The Longhorns needed a punt return touchdown to even be competitive against Florida, which held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and dominated Manning’s offense on third downs (when Texas was 2-for-10). The Horns have no run game to speak of despite a handful of high-profile transfer portal additions in the backfield. They’ve lost two games in a row, the SEC is essentially out of reach, and Texas still has to play losable games against Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M. (The Aggies are an even bigger disaster, but again, rivalries.)
If Steve Sarkisian doesn’t rapidly fix problems that have been with this team all year, Texas will squander one of the most talented rosters in the country. This team may be able to make the playoff at 9-3, because it has a win over Ohio State, but there would be no guarantees.
Alabama (lost to Tennessee, 26-10)
PANIC METER: 7
Alabama’s offense fell apart against a talented defensive front. Tennessee has one of the best tackles in the country in Xavier Gilliam, and the Tide were outmanned without their starting center, Racin Delgatty. Maybe an offense that averaged 3.7 yards per play and went 2-for-13 on third down while committing 10 penalties will right the ship once everyone is healthy. But for one evening, Alabama looked as offensively dysfunctional as it did in 2025, when the Tide were a charitable addition to the playoff bracket and got dominated by Indiana at the Rose Bowl.
The Tide have lost back-to-back games in the regular season for the first time since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year. I think their offense will find itself again over the next few weeks. But the Tide need to win out to be assured a playoff spot, and they have a game in three weeks at LSU that is, at best, a tossup for them. The margin for error is no longer there.
Missouri (lost to Ole Miss, 31-3)
PANIC METER: 10
What had been one of the most exciting offenses in the country ran into a wall against an Ole Miss defense that hadn’t been able to stop anyone all year. Mizzou’s run game has been up and down in a season without star running back Ahmad Hardy, and it was horrendous in this game. The rush defense fell off a cliff, and Austin Simmons couldn’t compensate for it.
The Tigers failed both the eye test and the computer test, as the loss dropped them 10 spots to 27th in ESPN’s FPI and seven spots to 21st in Bill Connelly’s SP+. In other words, the result this weekend took the Tigers from a team that looked serious to one that does not. They still have to play Texas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. This is not likely to end well.
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