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ESPN’s SP+ rankings can tell a lot about how the upcoming college football season will look for all 138 FBS teams. These rankings by Bill Connelly include returning production (including transfers), recent history, and recent recruiting.

It also includes other advanced numbers, as Connelly explains:

As a reminder, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking.  Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.

With these rankings out, the focus can now turn to what type of schedule Big 12 teams will play and how hard it will be. The conference has four teams in the top 30 with Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona, giving the league a solid group to start the season. 

In the Big 12 non-conference slate, the competition is not that great. There are only four opponents — out of 64 opportunities — that rank inside the top 20. Those include No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 9 Texas A&M and No. 20 Missouri.

Below are the top five games on the Big 12 schedule. The methodology combines the two teams’ SP+ rankings, with the lowest number indicating the best game and the highest indicating the worst.

Toughest Games

5. BYU at Utah (Nov. 7)

SP+ comparison: No. 18 (BYU) vs. No. 25 (Utah)

The Holy War will have a new coach on the Utes‘ sideline when these two teams meet. Kyle Whittingham was Utah’s head coach for the past 21 years, but he is now running the Michigan football program.

Taking over for Utah is Morgan Scalley, who was an All-American safety for the Utes in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl and has spent his entire coaching career at Utah. He was the defensive coordinator for a decade before being the head coach.

The Cougars are coming off three consecutive wins over the Utes, after previously losing nine in a row. If BYU gets a fourth win in a row, it will be the first time since the 1989-92 seasons that the Cougars have achieved that feat.

This game should feature many points. BYU returns Big 12 offensive player of the year in running back L.J. Martin and sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier will lead the way. Bachmeier was thrust into the starting role as a true freshman last year and performed great, so having a full offseason should allow him to progress.

Utah also lost offensive coordinator Jason Beck to Michigan, but the Utes retain dynamic quarterback Devon Dampier, a true dual-threat. Dampier and backup QB Byrd Ficklin make for a dynamic position.

4. Texas Tech at TCU (Nov. 28)

SP+ comparison: No. 7 (Texas Tech) vs. No. 34 (TCU)

The Red Raiders are riding high off of last year’s Big 12 title. They do need to replace key players, quarterback Behren Morton and defensive studs David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez. At the quarterback position, the Red Raiders brought in Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby.

On defense, the Red Raiders brought in San Diego State edge rusher Trey White. White had 19.5 career sacks and should be able to step right in and be a threat on the Red Raiders defensive line.

TCU does lose quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana, but head coach Sonny Dykes may not be too upset about that.

“…Look, numbers are numbers, and stats are stats. And I think you know, you look for us, and I think Josh started 31 games here as a quarterback,” Dykes said. “And we turned the ball over 40 — he turned the ball over 42 times in those 31 starts.” 

NEW: TCU Head Coach Sonny Dykes takes a SHOT at QB Josh Hoover, who left for Indiana…

“Josh started 31 games here as a quarterback, and (HE) turned the ball over 42 times.” 🤯 pic.twitter.com/wHFnv4gojK

— College Transfer Portal (@CollegeFBPortal) March 25, 2026

With Hoover gone, Dykes dipped into the transfer portal to nab Harvard’s all-time leading passer, quarterback Jaden Craig, to take over the starting job.

3. Oregon at Oklahoma State (Sept. 12)

SP+ comparison: No. 2 (Oregon) vs. No. 38 (Oklahoma St.)

Oklahoma State’s placement on this list is inflated because the Oregon Ducksare ranked second, but the Cowboys might just be one of the most interesting teams in the Big 12. 

Mike Gundy is out, and in comes Eric Morris from North Texas. Morris is bringing in a flashy offense from Denton, Texas, where he brought along offensive coordinator Sean Brophy, defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, and, most importantly, quarterback Drew Mestemaker.

Morris is known for coaching quarterbacks to their full potential. He has coached Cam Ward, Patrick Mahomes, John Mateer and Baker Mayfield. Mestemaker is the latest in that line, and the goal is for this group to take Oklahoma State to the next level.

This game against the Ducks will be key in that development. Oregon is considered a national title contender and returns QB Dante Moore, ranking 11th in total returning production. 

Also, the hope and dream is that this game will be a shootout and much better than last year’s 69-3 Ducks thrashing of the Cowboys.

2. Arizona at Texas Tech (Oct. 31)

SP+ comparison: No. 30 (Arizona) vs. No. 7 (Texas Tech)

All eyes for Arizona will be on quarterback Noah Fifita. Coming off a 3,228-yard and 29-touchdown season, Fifita aims to keep improving as he’s done every season in Tucson. 

A big part of Fifita’s success last year was the coaching of offensive coordinator Seth Doege, who came over from Marshall. Doege is back in Tucson again, and it will be the first time Fifita has had the same offensive coordinator at Arizona. That continuity should pay off with better play in 2026, and could put Texas Tech on upset alert on Halloween.

Head coach Brent Brennan turned around a bad San Jose State team to earn multiple bowl bids, and he went from four wins to nine in his first two years at Arizona.

The Wildcats might be sitting at fourth in the league per early SP+ rankings, but they are a team that can make a run for a conference title.

1. Notre Dame at BYU (Oct. 17)

Overall, the Irish have the most returning production in the FBS at 72%; they are second in defensive production and 19th in offensive production. This is a very experienced team that will be a challenge for BYU.

SP+ comparison: No. 3 (Notre Dame) vs. No. 18 (BYU)

This was a last-minute add to the 2026 schedule as USC and Notre Dame could not figure out how to continue their series. That led to BYU’s decision to add a marquee opponent to its schedule. The Cougars have been extremely close to making the College Football Playoff in each of the last two years, so the hope is that this game will help them get over the hump — win or lose.

Notre Dame does lose future first-round running back Jeremiyah Love, but SP+ really loves the Irish as they are No. 3 overall. Finding a replacement for Love will be Notre Dame’s biggest need. Aneyas Williams is the projected starter, but he is still recovering from an elbow injury from the fall.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12’s toughest 2026 college football games ranked by ESPN SP+

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