Ranking where Julian Sayin will finish in Heisman Trophy voting
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It’s been almost two decades since Ohio State produced a Heisman Trophy winner.
If the drought ends this weekend, it’ll take redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin lifting the trophy in an unexpected surprise.
Sayin remains in contention after he was announced as one of the four finalists for the prestigious player of the year award, sending him to the ceremony in New York with Jeremiyah Love, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
But the Buckeyes’ loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game muddies his candidacy, leaving Sayin as a relative longshot to become the Buckeyes’ first winner since Troy Smith in 2006.
Julian Sayin Heisman predictions
There’s a clear statistical case for Sayin.
He could be the most accurate quarterback over a season in the history of the Football Bowl Subdivision. Sayin’s completion percentage of 78.4% is on pace to break the record set by former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in 2023 (77.4%).
Sayin leads current FBS quarterback as well in pass efficiency with a 182.2 rating that is just ahead of Mendoza.
But box scores will only carry him so far.
The momentum for Sayin faded with the title game loss as he was unable to get the better of Mendoza, who threw a touchdown in the third quarter that pushed the Hoosiers ahead of the Buckeyes in their 13-10 win.
Sayin’s chance for a Heisman moment in the fourth quarter fell apart when a potential game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Bennett Christian was broken up in the end zone.
Though conference championship weekend is not the be-all and end-all in the race, it does hold a lot of sway as it makes a final impression on voter just days before ballots are due.
Only once over the last two decades has a quarterback won the Heisman on the heels of a loss in their conference title game. The double whammy for Sayin is that his loss was also to another leading candidate.
Sayin is most likely to finish third or fourth in the final voting like recent Ohio State quarterbacks.
Julian Sayin Heisman odds
The odds are against Sayin.
Sayin is a distant +50000 to win the Heisman, according to BetMGM, with Mendoza as the clear favorite (-1200) ahead of Pavia (+700) and Love (+15000)
Julian Sayin stats
The efficiency stats for Sayin have been eye-popping, but his volume is less noticeable in comparison to recent winners.
Sayin’s 31 touchdown passes would be the fewest for a quarterback since former Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson in 2016.
It should be acknowledged that Jackson was more of a dual threat as well. While he threw 30 touchdowns during his Heisman season, he also ran for 21 touchdowns.
The clock rules changes, which include no stoppage on first downs, that took place in 2023, have slowed the pace of play across the board.
Mendoza’s 33 touchdowns lead the FBS and also would be the fewest since Jackson.
How many Heismans does Ohio State have?
The Buckeyes have seven winners, a tie with Notre Dame and Oklahoma for the second most behind USC.
Here’s Ohio State’s list: Troy Smith (2006), Eddie George (1995), Archie Griffin (1974 and 1975), Howard Cassady (1955), Vic Janowicz (1950) and Les Horvath (1944).
When is the Heisman Trophy ceremony?
There ceremony is on Dec. 13. It will air on ESPN at 8 p.m.
Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Email him at jkaufman@dispatch.com and follow along on Bluesky, Instagram and X for more.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Who will win the Heisman? Predicting Julian Sayin’s chances
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