Rhule's Résumé Review
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Five years ago, I wrote a story asking whether Scott Frost’s first three seasons in Lincoln were more a product of the Big Ten’s strength than Nebraska’s weaknesses. A 12-20 record left much to be desired, but Nebraska played Ohio State in each of his first three seasons in Lincoln. But after looking at the numbers, that theory didn’t hold up. Frost’s teams played more top-25 SP+ opponents per season than any other Husker coach, yet still performed worse than anyone else. Frost also accounted for three of Nebraska’s four losses to teams that finished outside the top 75 in SP+.
Now, three years into Matt Rhule’s tenure, it’s worth revisiting that idea. Rhule’s Year 3 leap didn’t fully materialize, but he is still well ahead of where Frost was entering Year 4. And with a difficult 2026 schedule ahead, the question is whether that progress holds when Nebraska faces a much tougher slate.
Methodology
If you’re familiar with the NCAA basketball tournament “quadrant” system (which, hopefully, more Nebraska fans are after the Sweet Sixteen run), the premise is simple. A game is considered “Tier 1” if the opponent finishes the season in the top 10 of the SP+. Tier 2 opponents are 11-25, Tier 3 opponents are 26-75, and Tier 4 opponents are anything above 76. By using the end-of-season rankings, we eliminate oddities like Nebraska’s last-ranked win coming against a 4-8 Oregon team in 2016.
Note: for brevity, interim coaches are against the head coach who started the season. SP+ starts tracking in 1970, so only three seasons of Bob Devaney’s career are included.
Tier 1 Opponents
Unsurprisingly, Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne stand above all other Husker coaches against Tier 1 matchups. The Huskers’ Black Friday matchup with Oklahoma was frequently a clash between two Tier 1 opponents and had national championship implications. While for much of his career Osborne was known as unable to “win the big one”, by the 1990s he produced one of the greatest runs in college football history. From an average scoring perspective, many of these elite matchups were essentially a toss-up for Nebraska.
In the 27 seasons since Osborne retired, Nebraska has won only 5 more Tier 1 games. Frank Solich managed two of those, a win against Missouri in 1998 and a bowl win against Tennessee in 1999. Bo Pelini added three more wins. These included an all-time defensive game in a 10-3 win over Oklahoma in 2009, a high-scoring Big 12 shootout in Stillwater in 2010, and finally his Gator Bowl victory over Georgia in 2013.
In his first three seasons, Matt Rhule has lost all three of his attempts in these games. Two of those came to the eventual national champion, Michigan, in 2023, and Ohio State in 2024, while the third was in the most recent game, a Las Vegas Bowl loss to Utah. While defensive letdowns were the hallmark loss of the Riley and even the Frost eras, the Huskers’ offense has struggled the most in games under Rhule. Nebraska has averaged just 15.3 points per game in these contests. Dana Holgorsen and Anthony Colenda will have their work cut out for them as they face several opponents that could finish the season as Tier 1 opponents.
Tier 2 Opponents
To compete for a spot in the playoffs, a team needs to win its Tier 2 games. Much like the Huskers’ long streak of failing to beat an opponent ranked in the AP Top 25, the Huskers have managed just one win over a team in this tier in the past nine years, Penn State in 2020.
Tom Osborne’s teams were dominant against this tier of opponents, typically consisting of the best Big 8 team behind Nebraska and Oklahoma. Nebraska enjoyed an average margin of victory of nearly two touchdowns in such games. Frank Solich kept the good times going, winning these games on average by nearly a touchdown. Frank Solich managed a seven-game winning streak over Tier 2 opponents between 1999 and 2001 with Eric Crouch at quarterback.
While Bill Callahan managed to maintain an average scoring output consistent with Frank Solich, his defensive units couldn’t keep the opponents from scoring. The most glaring game was the 10-70 loss Nebraska suffered at the hands of Texas Tech in 2004.
Ironically, the defensive-minded Bo Pelini performed even worse in these games than the Callahan-era teams did. The Pelini era started well with Bo’s teams winning their first three Tier 2 games (2008 Kansas, 2010 Missouri, 2011 Michigan State). However, the 2011 Michigan game would be the first game in a series that would ultimately cost Bo Pelini his job. Michigan would score 45 points that day, a total only surpassed by the 2004 Texas Tech game in the 41 seasons prior.
Bo’s defenses would only hold Tier 2 opponents under 30 points in a game two more times in his career at Nebraska, the 2012 Wisconsin and the 2012 Michigan games (his only two more wins against this tier after 2011). Wisconsin would get revenge in the 2012 Big Ten Championship Game, scoring 70 points of their own. The Badgers would embarrass Bo Pelini again in 2014 by scoring 59 points and setting a then-NCAA single-game rushing record. These blowout losses to good, but not great, opponents are what help to seal Pelini’s fate in Lincoln.
Matt Rhule has also struggled against these opponents, finishing 0-8 through three years. Surprisingly, the offense has been the problem in these games. Matt Rhule’s offenses averaged just 14.6 points per game despite former five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola leading the team in five of those games. While Scott Frost had a better record in these games over his first three seasons, going 1-7, Matt Rhule has a better chance of improving than Frost did. Anthony Colandrea should give the offense a spark as a more mobile quarterback than Dylan Raiola is. Clearly, Rhule wanted a mobile quarterback after starting his first season in Lincoln with Jeff Sims at quarterback. If the Huskers' offense can put up more points, they could start to win these games.
Tier 3 Opponents
For over three decades, Nebraska dominated opponents that finished outside of the SP+ top 25. Nebraska went 165-13 under Bob Devaney, Tom Osborne, and Frank Solich that finished between 26 and 75. The average margin of victory in those games under each coach was 21+ points.
Under Scott Frost and Mike Riley, Nebraska lost more of these games than it won. Riley went 8-11 while Frost went 5-12. Winning these games is the difference between finishing in the top 25 of the AP Poll and struggling to make a bowl game.
While Matt Rhule didn’t “leap” in year three as he did at Temple and Baylor, he’s posted consecutive seasons of winning 75% of his games against these opponents. Just like against Tier 2 opponents, Rhule’s offenses have been a source of struggle. They've scored over 30 points just twice in these games (2024 Wisconsin, 2025 Maryland). Nebraska will need to do this again in 2026 if it wants to get to bowl eligibility against a top-loaded schedule.
Tier 4 Opponents
The Huskers went 45 years without losing a game to an opponent in this tier. In 2015, Nebraska gave up 55 points to Purdue in a loss in a season where the Boilermakers finished 92nd in SP+. Scott Frost would find a way to lose 5 of these games, including 2 of 3 to start the 2022 season, which sealed his fate as the Huskers’ head coach.
Matt Rhule has lost more of these games than any Nebraska coach other than Scott Frost. However, both of those losses came in his first season (Colorado and Michigan State). Since 2023, Rhule has won five straight of these must-win games. The only one of those that was a one-possession final score was the 2025 UCLA game in which a true freshman, TJ Lateef, made his first career start on the road. Ohio and Bowling Green will likely fall into this category in 2026.
2026 Outlook
So, what does all this mean for this upcoming season? Matt Rhule is far ahead of where Frost was after his third season at Nebraska. The Huskers are winning most of the Tier 3 and 4 games when Scott Frost would lose those games. The 2026 schedule is certainly more difficult. Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State could all finish inside of Tier 1 (Nebraska played 4 Tier 1 opponents in 1987, 1993, and 2009). Washington and Iowa will contend for Tier 2 status, while the rest of the conference slate will be Tier 3.
Winning all the Tier 3 and 4 games while losing the Tier 1 and 2 games would likely result in a 7-5 record for Nebraska in 2026. If Nebraska can win its games against lower-tier opponents convincingly and stay competitive with the upper-tier opponents in 2026, it’s a step forward for the Huskers program that has been blown out in many high-profile performances since joining the Big Ten.
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