Roll Tide Wire predictions for Alabama vs. Florida State in Week 3

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One of the more anticipated games on Alabama football's 2026 schedule has arrived, as the Crimson Tide are set to host Florida State on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.

A rematch from just last season, Alabama traveled down to Tallahassee to open the 2025 season where the Crimson Tide eventually suffered a shocking 31-17 defeat to the Seminoles. Alabama was simply outplayed by the Seminoles in the game, especially defensively where the Crimson Tide surrendered 230 yards to Florida State on the ground.

This latest showdown between the Crimson Tide and Seminoles will take place in Tuscaloosa though, with Alabama entering the matchup considered as a huge favorite. Will the Crimson Tide end up avenging that 2025 loss, or will it be more of the same issues for Alabama similar to a year ago against the Seminoles?

Follow along as the Roll Tide Wire staff make their predictions for Alabama vs. Florida State in Week 3.

Matt Melton's prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 43, Florida State Seminoles 20

I believe this game will eventually come down to the question of if Florida State can match points on the scoreboard with Alabama, something I don't think they can against the Crimson Tide defense. Alabama will be facing one of the ACC's worst pass defenses, while Florida State, whose strength is running the ball, will be matched up against a Crimson Tide defense that is among college football's best at limiting teams on the ground.

As a result, I'll predict a huge showing from the Alabama passing game, while the Crimson Tide defense should have another big day. Should that happen as well, it will likely be a rough day for Florida State, and the potential is there for a sizable Alabama win against a motivated Tide team coming off last season's loss.

Steve Holley's prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Florida State Seminoles 14

In hindsight, last year's season opener in Tallahassee is every bit the head-scratcher to me as Alabama's 2007 loss to Louisiana-Monroe in Nick Saban's first year. Like that loss nearly 20 years ago, it's not happening again. It's only two games, but Florida State ranks 120th in passing offense heading into Saturday with former Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels throwing for just 125 yards against SMU in his last start. The Seminoles are also 10th from last in all of FBS in total defense (904 yards allowed).

Keelon Russell should have a big day in his second home start after a shaky first half at Kentucky, and I think the run game may have finally turned a corner after its second half in Lexington. Just as importantly, Alabama's defense looked downright nasty in that game and yielded just one offensive touchdown. FSU has some weapons, particularly with Duce Robinson, but I like the Tide to win big.

Elliot Reeder's prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 45, Florida State Seminoles 20

Alabama's passing game should shine facing off against a Florida State pass defense that allowed 430 passing yards to Kevin Jennings and SMU two weeks ago. I expect big games from the likes of Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks. This could also be a potential statement game for the new-look Alabama offensive line after it struggled against FSU last season. I expect Keelon Russell to throw for 350+ yards and for Alabama to rush for 150+ yards as a team.

Alabama's defense will have their work cut for them. Ousmane Kromah is one of the best running backs in the country, Ashton Daniels is a dual-threat QB that had some success against Alabama in the Iron Bowl last year, and Duce Robinson is a tough matchup at WR. However, I think Alabama's offense will just be too much for FSU to handle.

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Roll Tide Wire predictions for Alabama vs. Florida State in Week 3

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