San Diego State Football Preview 2026: Can the Aztecs Rule the New Pac-12?
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It always seemed like San Diego State should be in the Pac-12, and now it’s there.
It might not be the Pac-12 of a few years ago, but the school and the program are pure California through and through – how the Big 12 didn’t grab this place is unfathomable – and this is when it has to establish itself as the star of the newly configured conference.
But to do that, head coach Sean Lewis has to revamp some things.
Can San Diego State Become the Face of the New Pac-12?
The defensive powerhouse of last year has to replace just about everyone who mattered, but on the flip side, the offense that was a tad slow-and-stodgy – but effective – should change things fast with the great receiving corps health again, and with a loaded backfield as good as any in the Pac-12.
It took a few years to get back up to speed, and several years to get the call from a bigger conference, but San Diego State – as a university and a football program – is poised to be a big deal.
– 2026 San Diego State Schedule Analysis
San Diego State Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Sean Lewis (3rd year, 12-13; 8th year overall, 36-44)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Win the Pac-12 title/Miss out on a bowl game
- Key Player: Brady Nassar, EDGE Sr.
- 2025 Record: 9-4
- Biggest Question: Can the Aztec defense keep producing at a high level after losing so many stars?
San Diego State Key 2025 Stats
- Rushing Touchdowns: San Diego State 25, Opponents 9
- Field Goals: San Diego State 19-of-23, Opponents 8-of-15
- 2nd Quarter Scoring: San Diego State 132, Opponents 56
Offense
The offense is supposed to be the star under Sean Lewis – that whole AztecFast thing was supposed to be a differentiating factor with its pace and speed.
Instead, San Diego State turned into 1974 Ohio State with a grinding attack that powered away on the ground, controlled the clock, and relied on the defense. With the parts returning, though, the attack should be even better.
What’s Working
The ground game was terrific, and will be again. The Aztecs leaned on their excellent backs and didn’t stop as long as the other side proved it couldn’t hold up.
They ran the ball 40 times or more 11 times, won nine of those games, and here it comes again with Doak Walker-caliber back Lucky Sutton returning, along with Christian Washington. The two combined for close to 1,900 yards with 14 scores.
The receiving corps should be more explosive with the four best receivers back. The Aztecs had to run the ball so much because of a huge injury problem at receiver.
They were able to hang on to star Jordan Napier, Jacob Bostick is back after missing half the season, and Donovan Brown returns after averaging close to 16 yards per catch.
Making things even better, quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. – son of the former NFL wide receiver – will be working more at receiver.
Quarterback Jayden Denegal is a veteran. The former Michigan transfer wasn’t quite right at times late in the season after getting banged up, but he’s back and needs to be more consistent. Games were all but over when he hit his deep shots. He can run, too.
The addition of Stone Saunders from Kentucky gives the Aztecs a good No. 2.
What Needs Work
The passing game needs to be more consistent. Denegal doesn’t have to throw for 300 yards, but he does need to connect on more of the midrange shots. He completed close to 60% of his throws, and again, he can hit the deep throws, but the offense failed to push past 50% five times, and lost three of them.
The offensive line needs retooling. The skill parts are great, but the front five needs more developed depth and a sure-thing starting five. Getting guard Evan Lawrence from Indiana is a big help, and Texas Southern transfer Dennis Jones has to shine at one tackle spot.
It was feast or famine on turnovers. The Aztecs were wonderful when they controlled the tempo and didn’t have to press. They didn’t turn it over in seven games – winning six of them – and turned it over multiple times in the other six, losing three of them. Basically, the team struggled to recover from mistakes.
Player to Watch
Lucky Sutton, RB Sr.
He could’ve left and gone anywhere, but he wanted to stay home after coming up with one of the best seasons by any running back in the country.
He won’t have to carry the offense with so many other good players returning, but this will be his offense at times after averaging over five yards per carry with close to 1,300 yards and ten scores.
Defense
It was among the most impressive surprises of the 2025 season – the San Diego State defense was a dominant force.
It finished 11th in the nation in total defense, sixth in scoring, and second in pass efficiency defense – and all of that would’ve been far better, but the numbers include the insane shootout of a New Mexico Bowl game loss to North Texas, when most of the top Aztecs were sitting out.
But now the great group of last year is undergoing an overhaul of talent, including new defensive coordinator Demetrius Sumler.
What’s Working
Several key players are still around. The personnel losses are massive, but big gets from the portal are coming in to help a decent base of holdovers. It starts on the defensive front with the veteran tackle combination of Malachi Finau and Amari Cornier as experienced as any in the new Pac-12.
The transfer portal might not fill all the holes, but it helped. The Aztecs were able to load up on promising players from Group of Six and FCS programs, but they got a few Power Four talents, too.
Gavrien Lightfoot is a 315-pound tackle from Colorado and 330-pound Tuaoa Tauili’ili from Portland State will matter right away, and edge rushers Djibril Rahman (Rutgers), Kai Wallin (Oregon State), and Nate Henrich (Gannon) will be turned loose from the start.
The safeties will be a strength. There’s no replacing the lost star power of last year’s group, but Dalesean Staley will be one of the Pac-12’s best safeties to build around. Jalen Thomeson is a big-time playmaker coming in from Ohio, and Solomon Davis was a wonderful transfer prospect from Oregon.
What Needs Work
The star power losses are massive, with 12 of the top 14 tacklers gone.
Chris Johnson was one of the nation’s best corners – he was a first round pick by the Miami Dolphins.
Big-time pass rusher Trey White will be a national name at Texas Tech, fellow end Ryan Henderson will be a terror at Texas A&M, and Nebraska got two superstars in leading tackler linebacker Owen Chambliss and safety Dwayne McDougle.
The corners will be pushed right away. There’s no possible way to replace everything Johnson was for the Aztec defense. The world finally woke up to how good he was through the NFL Draft process.
The corners are all coming in from the portal, they’re almost all from the FCS, and they’re almost all relatively untested.
The run defense closed with a thud. After being so good all year, the Aztecs collapsed at the very end. Granted, they were missing most of the stars in the bowl loss to North Texas, but to keep harping on this, they all have to be replaced this year.
New Mexico and North Texas both ripped through SDSU defensive front, Hawaii and Washington State threw at will in the other two losses.
Player to Watch
Dalesean Staley, S Sr.
Not to put too much on his shoulders, but as one of the few big-time playmakers back, he’ll be everything for the defensive back seven early on. He made 81 tackles with a team-high ten broken-up passes with a pick.
Keys to the Season
- Get more out of the offense to make up for the losses on defense.
- Find a more effective passing game.
- Control the clock and the game even more with the ground game.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Brady Nassar, EDGE Sr.
Trey White is a future NFL pass rusher, Ryan Henderson isn’t far off, and Niles King was a force at times. You replace talent like that at Ohio State, not San Diego State.
Nassar was part of the rotation last year making 20 tackles, and now it’ll be on him to try filling the massive void at one edge spot.
Biggest Concern
Converting third down chances
How do you help out a defense that has to rebuild and reload? You keep the offense on the field as long as possible.
It was the maddening aspect of the San Diego State 2025 season. It ran the ball at will at times, but it just couldn’t seem to figure out how to keep the chains moving on a consistent basis.
The 31% third down conversion rate was among the worst in America.
Biggest Game
James Madison, September 19
In Pac-12 play, it’s the regular season finale at Boise State, but there’s a long journey before then.
The visit from James Madison is being seen as a tone-setting moment for the new era of San Diego State football.
Just how good is the program as it goes into the Pac-12? It’s about to find out when the Dukes – possibly the best team in the Sun Belt, and fresh off a trip to the College Football Playoff – come into Snapdragon.
Transfer Portal
It could’ve been a whole lot worse.
You don’t have the season like San Diego State just had without losing a slew of parts to the big boys, but keeping the offensive skill guys like Lucky Sutton around was a major coup.
Best Signing
Evan Lawrence, OT (Indiana)
The Hoosier offensive line will be among the best in America coming into the season. It’s not only super-talented, it’s also deep. San Diego State will benefit, getting the 6-6, 306-pound sophomore to be the main man at left tackle.
Biggest Loss
Trey White, EDGE (Texas Tech)
Texas Tech got to the College Football Playoff last year partially due to the pass rushing tandem of No. 2 overall pick David Bailey and Romello Height. White might be next.
One of the best under-the-radar pass rushers coming into last season, he didn’t disappoint with seven sacks, 53 tackles, and 10.5 tackles for loss despite being a marked man.
Other Names to Know
- Jalen Thomeson, S (Ohio University)
- Justius Lowe, WR (Oregon)
- Sione Hala, LB (Weber State)
CFN Season Prediction
The Aztecs pulled off a stunner of a season with a total left turn in styles, but there was also a ton of magic and good fortune in the run.
It’s not like the defense didn’t create its own luck, but it faced a whole slew of backup quarterbacks last year – sometimes thanks to its own doing – and didn’t exactly crush a whole slew of killer offenses.
However, it did what you’re supposed to do against mediocre competition and crushed it.
This year, the schedule gets a little bit tougher, the spotlight will be a little brighter, and the expectations will be there to become an instant Pac-12 factor.
CFN Prediction: 7-5
Going to UCLA will be tough early on, and the long road trip to Toledo is dangerous – this isn’t a great fish-out-of-water program when it comes to travel – but including the home game against James Madison, there’s nothing else the Aztecs can’t win.
Going to Boise State late is an issue, but other Pac-12 road games against Oregon State and Colorado State are more than winnable.
The flex game in the regular season finale against Fresno State might be a make-or-break moment – those two games will likely be the difference between 6-6 and 8-4.
But no matter what, San Diego State is back to being a good, fun program again. It deserves more attention, and it’s about to get it.
Related: Pac-12 Football 2026 Win Totals: Spring Predictions for All 8 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jun 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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