Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Kent State
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College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
The Buckeyes will be looking to bounce back this weekend after a brutal loss to Texas in a game they once led 23-3. Kent State likely won’t provide much in terms of resistance, but they should provide another opportunity for Ohio State to figure out its depth chart and what Ryan Day wants his team to be moving forward.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 30.4 (Rank: 1)
- Proj. W-L: 10.2-2.5
- Win Out %: 25.9
- 6 Wins %: 99.8
- Win Conf. %: 50.0
- CFP %: 74.6
- Make NC %: 27.3
- Win NC %: 16.5
Kent State
- FPI: -21.2 (Rank: 136)
- Proj. W-L: 3.8-8.2
- Win Out %: 0
- 6 Wins %: 14.4
- Win Conf. %: 0.2
- CFP %: 0
- Make NC %: 0
- Win NC %: 0
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 99.0%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 2
- Rating: 29.2
- Offense: 39.5 (4th)
- Defense: 10.3 (1st)
- Special Teams: 0.1 (67th)
Kent State
- Rank: No. 133
- Rating: -21.5
- Offense: 15.2 (127th)
- Defense: 36.2 (128th)
- Special Teams: -0.5 (121st)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 53.2 points
- Win Probability: 100%
- Projected Score (rounded): 53-0
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 87.27 (9th)
- Texas: 53.51 (161st)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 28.63 (1st)
- Texas: -20.31 (136th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State (1) will beat Kent State (136) by 51.8 at home (100% chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 8.94 (6th)
- Offense: 68.02 (6th)
- Defense: 45.01 (1st)
- Kent State: 6.19 (136th)
- Offense: 46.13 (133rd)
- Defense: 17.69 (138th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 52, Kent State 3 (100% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
Rank Metric Ohio State Offense vs. Kent State Defense Metric Rank 15th 0.60 EPA/Pass 0.7o 119th 35th 0.17 EPA/Rush 0.60 129th 13th 71.8% Available Yards % 91.7% 130th 74th Own 27 Starting Field Position Own 20 10th 25th 0.32 Early Downs EPA/Play 0.50 126th T-29th 56.3% 3rd/4th Down Success 88.9% 128th 93rd 7.86 Avg 3rd Down Distance 6.56 80th Rank Metric Kent State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense Metric Rank 118th -0.38 EPA/Pass -0.55 6th 87th -0.08 EPA/Rush -0.34 19th 119th 23.4% Available Yards % 18.7% 8th 106th Own 24 Starting Field Position Own 28 73rd 125th -0.30 Early Downs EPA/Play -0.41 5th 86th 35.7% 3rd/4th Down Success 25.0% T-23rd 89th 7.57 Avg 3rd Down Distance 8.47 25th
Advanced Metrics Explainer
EPA (Expected Points Added)
- How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation
- Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
- A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20
- EPA is probability-based, not exact
- An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points
- On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation
- EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring
Available Yards %
- Measured from starting field position to end zone
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%
Prior Meetings
Ohio State has won each of the three all-time meetings between these two teams, having out-scored Kent State 165-20 across the trio of victories.
The closest game between these two programs came in 2007, when the Buckeyes won 48-3.
The last time Ohio State played Kent State was in 2014, with a final score of 66-0.
Ohio State is 40-1 all-time vs. current members of the MAC and is riding a 37-game unbeaten streak.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
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