Should Luke Fickell still be on hot seat despite key win?

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For months, much of the debate surrounding the Wisconsin Badgers was how long embattled head coach Luke Fickell would stay at the helm last season. Wisconsin had gone through a six-game losing streak, and it took a second vote of confidence from then-Athletic Director Chris McIntosh to quiet the rumors of a potential coaching change.

Instead, Wisconsin elected to spend big in the transfer portal, with a projected budget that exceeds $30 million, to support Fickell with a quality roster. They added players at every position group, bringing in over a dozen new starters, to put their foot forward ahead of a crucial 2026 season.

This year’s circumstances for the Badgers were much different than last year. Wisconsin has a much more bearable schedule. It has a much more talented roster. That made it clear that results were needed this year.

Things didn’t look pretty the first two weeks for the Badgers, who showed flashes of being a good football team, mired in large stretches of inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Colton Joseph was inaccurate, the run game wasn’t really going, tackling was an issue, and the Badgers struggled with defending the run to start the year.

But things really clicked in a 54-10 win over Eastern Michigan, and especially clicked in Wisconsin’s comeback effort last Saturday in a 24-20 win on the road over No. 13 Penn State. Now, the Badgers, sitting at 3-1, have a much more positive outlook, sitting just on the edge of the AP Top 25 before a matchup with the Michigan State Spartans this weekend.

Coming into the season, oddsmakers had the Badgers favored to win 6.5 games. For me, the standard with this roster, buy-in, and schedule was eight wins, with an argument for seven. Wisconsin has a big upset under its belt so far, which was a big sigh of relief for Fickell and everyone involved with the program over the last few years.

But is Fickell absolved from the hot seat following the marquee win over Penn State?

ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg dove into the ‘Wisconsin dilemma’ this week, giving his thoughts on Fickell’s job security even with the current circumstances.

“Maryland, Rutgers and South Carolina are among the hot spots being watched as October kicks off. But Wisconsin might be the most fascinating situation to monitor,” Rittenberg wrote. “Here’s why: Luke Fickell is coming off of his biggest win as Wisconsin’s coach, a 24-20 triumph at Penn State that marked the Badgers’ first road victory since 2024, their first at Beaver Stadium since 2003 and their largest road comeback (17 points) since 2001.

“Going back to November 2025, the Badgers have taken down Washington, Illinois and now Penn State. Fickell made it through 2025 with a chance to get things right and more financial backing. Since then, Wisconsin has had an athletic director change (Chris McIntosh to Shawn Eichorst) and hired a new general manager (Morocco Brown). After consecutive losing seasons, the coach who needed results is now getting them. Wisconsin doesn’t have Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon on its remaining schedule, and a path to eight or more wins certainly exists.”

On the premise, the last few games for the Badgers have been quite good. They’ve taken down three of their last five ranked opponents after failing to do so over the first three years of the Fickell era. They’ve gotten a marquee win over a top-15 opponent. And they do look like a quality team, at least on defense and on special teams, this season.

But with new Athletic Director Shawn Eichorst in the fold and some quality candidates potentially rising in the ranks, there will be decisions to be made this offseason.

“So what’s the problem here? There might be none,” Rittenberg continued. “Eichorst certainly would rather raise money and create greater alignment around the program and the university than go through a coaching search. But two of the most appealing candidates in the cycle, Eck and Dickert, both have ties to Wisconsin. Eck played offensive line for coach Barry Alvarez’s Rose Bowl teams in the late 1990s. Dickert grew up near Milwaukee and played college ball at Wisconsin-Stevens Point.”

“[Eck and Dickert] want your job,” an industry source said, via Rittenberg.

“No one in the industry would be surprised if both are coaching elsewhere in 2027. Would Wisconsin worry about missing out? Ultimately, the school will have to assess its faith in Fickell, who is 20-22 with the Badgers but trending in the right direction. Eichorst also is in an AD chair for the first time since 2017 at Nebraska, where his last head coaching change, firing Bo Pelini at the end of the 2014 season, didn’t go well.

“What’s got to be in the back of his mind is he’s already done this once, and he’s damn lucky to be back in the position that he’s in,” an industry source said. “[Nebraska is] still not back to where they were under Pelini.”

Ultimately, my thinking from the offseason remains the same. Wisconsin should win at least seven games, but really eight should be the benchmark for this team with the amount they spent on the roster. That meant Wisconsin had to take care of business against opponents they were expected to be favored against (Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Purdue), win some games projected to be close (UCLA, Iowa, Minnesota, Maryland), and potentially secure one big upset (Penn State, Notre Dame, USC).

Winning five of the games they were supposed to win, plus two to three of the games projected to be close, and a potential upset over a tough opponent, would get the Badgers to eight wins. Add in a loss in one of those scenarios, and you get to seven wins.

If that happens, there’s no doubt Fickell should stay at the helm (I’d be disappointed, but probably still argue the same with seven wins, depending on how that happened). Wisconsin has a clear infrastructure in place that can be built upon, especially if the resources remain prevalent. The Badgers have remained top contenders in recruiting and can continue to build teams on the defensive side of the ball.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Fickell doesn’t need to improve. He continues to struggle with in-game decision-making, perhaps the biggest issue with him as a head coach on the field. And we’re still waiting to see transfer evaluations and player development be at the level they’re supposed to be, although that seems to be coming into place this season.

Additionally, the win over Penn State doesn’t guarantee safety. If Wisconsin flames out the rest of the season and only wins six games or looks poor in rivalry matchups again, there will be discussions this offseason.

But, currently the cards are aligned for Fickell, who has clearly demonstrated the fire and desire to win. Now, it’s up to him and his team to see what they can do with it for the rest of a promising season.

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