SMU vs Cal Prediction: The Mustang Must Win for ACC Title Appearance
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It’s just this simple for SMU. Win, and it’s back in the ACC Championship with a real shot to make it to the College Football Playoff for a second year in a row.
This hasn’t been the smoothest of rides, but unlike last year when it missed most of the top team, the Mustangs plowed through Miami, blew out Louisville, and won at Clemson to get to this spot.
The two losses to Baylor and TCU were two months ago. The team has sharpened up, and it’s getting a Cal team that is in a transitional period.
The Golden Bears are going bowling, but they lost three of their last four, and committed the unforgivable sin of getting rocked by Cal 31-10.
Head coach Justin Wilcox was fired, Nick Rolovich is taking over for the rest of the way, and even with the changes, the talent is there to screw up SMU’s dream.
SMU vs Cal Preview
How To Watch SMU vs Cal
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
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Why SMU Will Win
SMU and Kevin Jennings have found their passing groove.
Jennings was hardly bad over the first part of the season, but he didn’t hit 300 yards until November, and then … boom. He lit up Miami, Boston College, and Louisville for over 300 yards in each game, and the offense has been at a whole other level of effectiveness over the last two games.
Cal has been painfully flaky. The pass defense has been okay, but the running game is the worst in the nation, the pass protection is blah, and …
Why Cal Will Win
The SMU secondary gives up yards.
It locked down hard on Louisville last week, but it’s been hit hard away from Dallas. It makes up for the yards allowed with lots and lots and lots of takeaways, but everything will work fine as long as Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is careful with the ball.
And then there’s the Rolovich factor.
Cal is already going bowling, and there’s nothing really to lose here – it is Senior Day, though, so here comes the passing game being ramped up to another level. As is, the Bears throw it 40 times a game, but the pace should be a bit faster, and …
SMU vs Cal Prediction, Betting Lines
This should be a wild back-and-forth game. SMU has everything to play for, but it’s a different team away from Dallas. It was able to win at Clemson, and it rocked at Boston College, but …
Cal over SMU has been the call all year, and there’s no going back now. In a game with wild offensive mood swings, this will be a blast.
Cal 38, SMU 34
Line: SMU -13.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4
Must See Rating: 4
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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This story was originally published by College Football News on Nov 27, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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