SMU vs Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 1
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Coming off an iffy showing in Week 0, Florida State hosts SMU at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla., on Monday, Sept. 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Despite being on the road, SMU is a 2.5-point favorite, and my SMU vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks are backing the Mustangs to turn up the heat on Mike Norvell's seat even more.
TOP PICK
Who will win SMU vs Florida State: SMU -2.5
Florida State avoided a crisis in Week 0 after an ugly first two-and-a-half quarters against a New Mexico State team that finished 123rd by SP+ in 2025.
SMU ranked 100 spots higher last season (23rd) and is Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%).
With the clear continuity advantage, SMU should be able to pressure a Seminoles team that was undisciplined and messy against an FBS bottom-feeder in Week 0, missing nine tackles, committing eight penalties, and allowing multiple blown coverages.
The Mustangs have a proven QB in Kevin Jennings (59 TDs the last two seasons) and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. The Seminoles' defense finished ranked outside the Top 50 in EPA per pass and rush last season.
I like SMU to cover at -3.5 or better.
COVERS INTEL: Florida State's defense allowed 17 points in Week 0 to a New Mexico State offense that had averaged 6.0 ppg in its two previous Power Four matchups under head coach Tony Sanchez.SMU vs Florida State Over/Under pick: Under 53.5
Florida State had just 17 points midway through the third quarter in Week 0 against a New Mexico State defense that ranked 121st in SP+ in 2025 and allowed 42 points to its lone Power Four opponent.
The saving grace for FSU's offense against the Aggies last week was the run game, but SMU's defense will be a far tougher matchup. The Mustangs were 15th in EPA per rush on defense last season and allowed just 3.2 yards per carry.
If SMU forces FSU to beat its defense with Ashton Daniels, the Seminoles might struggle to reach 20 points. Daniels has more career turnover-worthy plays (42) than TD passes (25).
With FSU's offensive struggles, I like the Under at 52.5 or better.
SMU vs Florida State combo
Taking both the Under and the Over on SMU's points might seem strange, but I'm fading the Seminoles' offense to the max.
Daniels has taken 10+ dropbacks in 25 games since 2023; 20 of those games came against P4 opponents. In those 20 games, Daniels' team scored 25+ points only seven times.
SMU's experience should help it put points on the board against this FSU defense, especially with its ground game.
Mustangs' lead back Kendrick Raphael ranked fourth in the ACC in rushing yards after contact (706) and forced missed tackles (50) at Cal last season, and he’ll now run behind a significantly improved SMU offensive line.
SMU vs Florida State combo
- SMU -2.5
- Under 53.5
- SMU team total Over 27.5
SMU vs Florida State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: SMU -2.5 | Florida State +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (50%) | Under 53.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: SMU 58% | Florida State 42%
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SMU vs Florida State weather
The weather could have a major impact on this game in Tallahassee.
With thunderstorms throughout the day leading up to kickoff, the field conditions at Bobby Bowden Field (natural grass) may slow the offenses.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
SMU vs Florida State trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in SMU's last eight games as a favorite. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs. Florida State.
How to watch SMU vs Florida State
| Location | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Monday, Sept.7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
SMU vs Florida State latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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