SMU vs Louisville Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The #16 SMU Mustangs (2-0) and #23 Louisville Cardinals (1-1) meet in Week 3 for the headliner in the ACC. SMU beat Louisville 38-6 at home last season and Kevin Jennings threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Louisville did play with their backup quarterback, so that wasn't a true tell of how good the Cardinals are.

Louisville opened their season with a 14-point comeback against Ole Miss just to lose at the buzzer on a 48-yard field goal (41-38). The Cardinals turned around on four days of rest and beat Villanova 59-13. Now Louisville enters with seven days of rest, one more than SMU. The Cardinals have thrown for over 300 yards in both games and totaled 469 total yards versus Ole Miss and 635 against Villanova.

SMU beat Florida State 27-24 to open the season despite everything going against the Mustangs. SMU turned the ball over four times, outgained the Seminoles 585-324 in yards, and held FSU to 2-of-15 on third downs. SMU barely escaped with the win, but cleaned up their act in Week 2 with a 56-10 win over UC Davis. The Mustangs posted 547 total yards to 233 and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch SMU vs Louisville

• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
• Site: L&N Federal Credit Union
• City: Louisville, KY
• TV/Streaming: ESPN2

Game Odds for SMU vs Louisville

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: SMU Mustangs (+100), Louisville Cardinals (-120)
• Spread: Louisville -1.5 (-108)
• Total: 59.5 points

SMU Mustangs

Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee
2026 Record: 2-0 (1-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 27.0 (T-81st)
Defensive Points Per Game: 24.0 (T-95th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 54th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 55th

The SMU Mustangs Offense:

SMU's offense has had no problems stacking yard after yard on its opponents. The only issue has been turnovers. The Mustangs had four against Florida State, but bounced back with zero against FCS UC Davis. SMU outgained both opponents by 250-plus yards and did the same against Louisville last year. Kevin Jennings is coming off a career-high five passing touchdowns and 337 passing yards.

SMU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Kevin Jennings

Through two games, Kevin Jennings has 767 passing yards (7th) and eight touchdowns (T-3rd) on 40-of-52 passing (76.9%). Jennings set a career-high 430 passing yards in Week 1, then five passing touchdowns in Week 2 — all in the first half. Three of the scores came in the red zone and two more from 44 and 52 yards out. Jennings completed 14 of his 16 passes versus UC Davis — and it all came in the first half. SMU goes as he goes.

The SMU Mustangs Defense:

SMU's defense recorded eight tackles for a loss and three sacks against Florida State, then six TFLs and two sacks versus UC Davis. The SMU defense is a top five unit when it comes to sacks. The Mustangs will get after Lincoln Kienholz was sacked three times against Ole Miss. SMU has held their two opponents to 555 total yards and only 125 passing yards to Florida State.

SMU Player to Watch on Defense: DB Jimmy Wyrick

After three seasons with Stanford and two with UTSA, Jimmy Wyrick transferred to SMU. Wyrick had 62 tackles last year, eight pass deflections, one forced fumble, and one interception with UTSA. Wyrick has 11 tackles with SMU and two sacks so far. He posted a sack in each of the two games and led the Mustangs with eight tackles against Florida State.

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Louisville Cardinals

Head Coach: Jeff Brohm
2026 Record: 1-1 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 48.5 (32nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 24.0 (95th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 30th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 64th

The Louisville Cardinals Offense:

The Louisville offense may be much better than we expected. Lincoln Kineholz has proved to be a dog with seven touchdowns through two games and Isaac Brown hasn't even got cooking yet. Brown has 97 yards on 29 carries (3.3 ypc), three receptions for 32 yards, and no touchdowns! Once he gets going, this Cardinals offense will be more dangerous. This Louisville pass offense has been explosive while they await Brown's breakout. Three different receivers have plays of 60-plus yards this season and four different rushers gained at least 25 yards once through two games.

Louisville Player to Watch on Offense: QB Lincoln Kienholz

After spending the past two years at Ohio State as a backup, Lincoln Kienholz has stormed into Louisville with bad intentions. Kienholz is 34-of-50 (68.0%) for 639 yards, four touchdowns, plus 20 carries for 11 yards, and two more touchdowns. The former Buckeye has crossed 300-plus passing yards in both games after 205 yards and three touchdowns in two years with Ohio State. Louisville may have a hidden gem on their hands.

The Louisville Cardinals Defense:

Louisville did a terrific job of slowing down Ole Miss in the first half of Week 1. The Cardinals held Trinidad Chambliss to under 100 yards and an interception in the first half of their game before the second half became a shootout. We saw Louisville dominate Villanova as expected, but I am curious to see which defense we see from Louisville — the first half version versus Ole Miss or the second half.

Louisville Player to Watch on Defense: LB Stanquan Clark

Over the linebackers that will be responsive with slowing Kevin Jennings down is Stanquan Clark. In 2024, Clark had 76 tackles, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and a 0.5 sack. However, he was limited to five games in 2025 with the Cardinals, so this is a bounce back year. Clark didn't get a taste of SMU last year, but had nine tackles against the Mustangs in 2024.

Louisville and SMU Team Stats, Betting Trends

• SMU is 1-0-1 ATS and 1-1 to the Over
• Louisville is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 to the Over
• Louisville is 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2025
• Louisville was 0-7 ATS as a home favorite last season
• SMU is 2-4-1 ATS as a road underdog since last season
• Louisville is 9-6 to the Over in the last 15 games at home
• SMU is 11-9 to the Under in the last 20 games on the road
• Kevin Jennings set a career-high with five passing touchdowns last week
• Lincoln Kienholz has seven total touchdowns to zero interceptions through two games

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans a live bet in SMU vs Louisville:

"This is one of the toughest games to handicap this week. I'd opt for a live bet in a game with only a -1.5 point spread. The Over looks appealing, but both defenses can get after the quarterback and it's an early season conference matchup, which normally makes lean the Under. SMU is a good team, but the four turnovers against Florida State is troubling and for Louisville, they were down 14 points with a little over six minutes to go. I can't trust either completely but if I got a live line above +6 for either team at half time, then I'd be wiling to bet this game."

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• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)