Special system reveals winner of all 39 college football bowl games

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About 10 years ago I invented a simple little mathematical system to help me pick winners in bowl games.

If I'm looking at a list and I see something like this year's XBox Bowl (yes, that's a thing) between Missouri State and Arkansas State, how could I possibly pick that game with any sort of conviction?

That's when I invented what I call "The Quality Game" system or QG for short. How often, when a team steps on the field, do they play a quality game? Not how often do they win or lose, but how often do they play well. It's like looking at a pitcher's ERA instead of his win-loss record.

I look at every game a team played, assign each game a point total — 3 being the highest and -3 being the lowest as I explain below — then add up the point total for all 12 or 13 games a team played and that is the team's Quality Game Score. Whichever team in a bowl matchup has the highest QG score will win the bowl game. It's complicated sounding, but actually quite simple.

The scoring system

3 points: A road win over a ranked team
2 points: A home or neutral win over a ranked team
1 point: Lopsided win (21 or more) over an unranked team
1 point: A narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team
0 points: A regular win (9-20 points) over and unranked team
0 points: A regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team
-1 point: A narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team
-1 point: A lopsided loss (21 points or more) to a ranked team
-2 points: A loss (20 points or less) to an unranked team
-3 points: A lopsided loss (21 or more) to an unranked team

A couple of important caveats. A "ranked team" is a team ranked in the final college football Top 25 playoff rankings, not a team that was ranked at the time but isn't any more. If your team played a non-FBS school, that game doesn't count, unless it was a loss, then it's -3. Also, this is strictly data-based. I'm not taking into account players skipping bowl games or injuries or things like that with my bowl picks. If you want to factor those things in, you can.

Thankfully, the transfer portal window was moved to after the bowl season this year so that means more players playing in their bowl games, which should make these picks more accurate after a down year last year when I crunched all the numbers only to have a team's QB, RB, DE, kicker and coach all transfer before they play the bowl game.

I will reveal, the mortal locks, the game's Vegas has wrong, who will be the national champion, and finally the winning team for all 39 bowl games.

Here we go!

These three teams will definitely win their bowl game

There are three bowl games with a QG point differential of 10 or more, which is a huge gap in this system. The numbers in parenthesis are the team's QG score, don't confuse them with point spreads. Nothing in this exercise has to do with point spreads.

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (6) over Nebraska (-7)
Gator Bowl: Missouri (3) over Virginia (-8)
The Pop-Tarts Bowl: BYU (5) over Georgia Tech (-5)

So pick Utah, Missouri and BYU and don't think twice. Make them your highest-confidence picks if you play in that kind of pool.

The 10 bowl games the Vegas odds have wrong

This is where you can gain separation from the other players in your office picks pool. It's natural to fall back on the Vegas line to pick the winner in a game between two teams you don't recognize, but there are 10 instances where the QG system says the Vegas underdog will win the bowl game. Try these upset picks, and again, the numbers in parenthesis are their QG totals, not point spreads.

(Note: The Vegas lines mentioned are as of Dec. 10.)

Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis (-2) over N.C. State (-4). Vegas has N.C. State as a 6-point favorite.
Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State (0) over Utah State (-9). Vegas has Utah State as a 3-point favorite.
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (-8) over Cal (-15). Vegas has Cal as a 1.5-point favorite.
Rate Bowl: New Mexico (-7) over Minnesota (-10). Vegas has Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite.
Military Bowl: East Carolina (0) over Pitt (-2). Vegas has Pitt as a 5.5-point favorite
Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (0) over Clemson (-6): Vegas has Clemson as a 3.5-point favorite.
Texas Bowl: LSU (-1) over Houston (-5). Vegas has Houston as a 3.5-point favorite.
Birmingham Bowl: Appalachian State (-14) over Georgia Southern (-16). Vegas has Georgia Southern as a 3-point favorite.
Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (0) over Navy (-5). Vegas has Navy as a 4.5-point favorite.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest (-5) over Mississippi State (-8). Vegas has Miss. State as a 2.5-point favorite.

Did the committee pick the right teams for the playoffs?

Short answer, mostly yes, with one big exception.

There are only five teams who achieved a QG score of 10 or more and four of those were the four top-ranked teams: Indiana (14), Ohio State (13), Georgia (10) and Texas Tech (15).

Note that it's Texas Tech that the QG system believes is the best team and will win it all with a slight edge over Indiana.

Where the committee biffed it according to QG and in the court of public opinion is with Notre Dame. The fighting Irish had a QG score of 12, the fourth best in the nation. And adding insult to injury for Notre Dame is that it wasn't even close as their nearest competitors for the final spot Alabama and Miami both had a mediocre QG score of only 2. Look for both of them to lose their first playoff game while Notre Dame sits at home and seethes.

All the bowl picks

Here's what you've been waiting for. The QG pick for every bowl game in chronological order. The team listed first is who you should pick. The bigger the gap, the more confident you should be. There are three instances that ended in a tie. In those cases I like to pick the Vegas underdog. And say it with me one more time, the number in parenthesis is that team's QG point total, not a point spread.

Los Angeles Bowl: Washington (0) over Boise State (-6)
Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy (-12) over Jacksonville State (-14)
Cure Bowl: South Florida (3) over Old Dominion (-1)
68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana (-15) over Delaware (-16)
XBox Bowl: Missouri State (-14) over Arkansas State (-15)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Western Michigan (-8) over Kennesaw State (-10)
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis (-2) over N.C. State (-4)
FBC playoff: Oklahoma (5) over Alabama (2)
FBC playoff: Texas A&M (4) over Miami (2)
FBC playoff: Mississippi (3) over Tulane (-5)
FBC playoff: Oregon (8) over James Madison (1)
Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State (0) over Utah State (-9)
Boca Raton Bowl: Louisville (0) over Toledo (-3)
New Orleans Bowl: TIE – Go with underdog Southern Miss. (-12) over Western Kentucky (-12)
Frisco Bowl: TIE – Go with underdog Ohio (-9) over UNLV (-9)
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (-8) over Cal (-15)
Game Above Sports Bowl: Northwestern (-6) over Central Michigan (-9)
Rate Bowl: New Mexico (-7) over Minnesota (-10)
First Responder Bowl: UTSA (-8) over Florida International (-13)
Military Bowl: East Carolina (0) over Pitt (-2)
Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (0) over Clemson (-6)
Fenway Bowl: Army (-6) over UConn (-9)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: BYU (5) over Georgia Tech (-5)
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State (-9) over Miami (Ohio) (-13)
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas (1) over San Diego State (-5)
Gator Bowl: Missouri (3) over Virginia (-8)
Texas Bowl: LSU (-1) over Houston (-5)
Birmingham Bowl: Appalachian State (-14) over Georgia Southern (-16)
Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech (-11) over Coastal Carolina (-14)
Music City Bowl: Tennessee (2) over Illinois (-1)
Alamo Bowl: USC (4) over TCU (-4)
ReliaQuest Bowl: TIE – Take underdog Iowa (3) over Vanderbilt (3)
Sun Bowl: Duke (-2) over Arizona State (-3)
Citrus Bowl: Texas (5) over Michigan (-1)
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (6) over Nebraska (-7)
Armed Forces Bowl: Texas State (-9) over Rice (-18)
Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (0) over Navy (-5)
Holiday Bowl: Arizona (0) over SMU (-3)
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest (-5) over Mississippi State (-8)

Shad Powers is the Sports & Leisure Editor at The Desert Sun. He'd love to hear what you think of this bowl-picking system. Shoot him an e-mail at shad.powers@desertsun.com.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: College football bowl games picking winners vs. Vegas odds

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