State of the State of Florida: The U Owns the Sunshine State
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Rivalry week is the perfect excuse to take the temperature of football in the Sunshine State, and the reading is simple: Miami is the clear alpha. When No. 3 Miami (5-0, 3-0 ACC) welcomes Florida State (3-3, 1-2) on Saturday night, it isn’t just a rivalry game. It’s a snapshot of three programs headed in very different directions.
Miami: The State’s Standard-Bearer
The Hurricanes are the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (49.6 points per game) and No. 1 scoring defense (9.8 points allowed), and they’ve done it through a rash of early-season injuries, with the bye week bringing key defenders back. They opened the home slate with a 77-7 rout of Florida A&M, a game in which they set a school record with 856 total yards.
The bigger story is how they got here. Cristobal’s program has turned NIL and the transfer portal into an engine rather than a patch. Quarterback Darian Mensah arrived with a reported $6.5 million NIL valuation (per On3), alongside Duke teammate Cooper Barkate (about $1 million) and edge rusher Damon Wilson II (about $2 million). That late surge pushed Miami into a top-five portal class by 247Sports’ ranking, and the Canes had the highest average transfer rating among programs with at least ten commits at the time. The 2026 high school class ranked 10th nationally and was the ACC’s best for the fourth straight cycle.
Recruiting hasn’t slowed down. Miami’s 2027 class ranks fourth nationally on the 247Sports Composite with 20 commits, 16 of them blue-chippers, headlined by five-stars Donte Wright, Nick Lennear, and Jaiden Bryant. Winning, development, NFL draft placement, and a deep NIL bag are now pulling in the same direction.
Florida: Back Down to Earth
For a few weeks, the Gators looked like one of the stories of the sport. Jon Sumrall’s first team went 4-0 behind a 66-21 opening win over FAU, a 44-39 shootout at Auburn, and a 52-28 demolition of No. 4 Ole Miss in front of 90,683 at the Swamp. Florida racked up 498 yards, including 302 on the ground, and climbed to No. 8 in the AP poll.
Then it unraveled. The Gators lost to Missouri and South Carolina by double digits, getting outscored 83-36 across the two games, and late in the 38-19 homecoming loss to the Gamecocks, starting quarterback Aaron Philo was benched for Tramell Jones Jr. Florida has fallen out of the Top 25 entirely, and the schedule only gets harder: at No. 7 Texas on Saturday, then Georgia on Halloween. The Ole Miss win was real, but so is the offense’s recent stall, and it may have set expectations higher than this roster can currently support. On the recruiting trail, Florida is holding steady, with a 2027 class ranked sixth nationally on the 247Sports Composite. They still aren’t Miami.
Florida State: Searching for a Floor
Florida State’s slide is the most alarming of the three. The Seminoles are 3-3 after a 44-20 loss at Louisville in which they were outscored 44-6 over the final 39 minutes, and they’ve also lost to SMU and Alabama. They gave up 397 rushing yards to the Cardinals. FSU is 10-20 since the 2023 ACC title game and hasn’t won a true road game since November 2023, and the calls for Mike Norvell’s job keep getting louder.
There are a few bright spots. Quarterback Ashton Daniels has 10 rushing touchdowns, running back Ousmane Kromah has 565 rushing yards, and receiver Duce Robinson, a 1,081-yard receiver last year, is still a tough matchup at 6-foot-6, though he has just 17 catches for 294 yards this fall. The recruiting side is the bigger red flag: FSU’s 2027 class ranks 33rd on the 247Sports Composite with no five-stars. Miami has won two straight in the series.
The Rest of the State
UCF (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) — Scott Frost’s Knights have beaten TCU and Georgia State (and routed Bethune-Cookman 73-6) but lost to Pitt, Houston, and Oklahoma State. They’re idle this week.
USF (4-2) — Brian Hartline’s Bulls opened 4-0 but have dropped back-to-back games to Temple (17-13) and UTSA (31-24). Kent State is next.
FAU (4-1 through five games) — Zach Kittley’s Owls opened with a 66-21 loss at Florida but have bounced back nicely, including a 16-10 win over FIU in the Shula Bowl.
FIU (3-3, 1-1 Conference USA) — Willie Simmons’ Panthers are .500 in his second year, following a 7-6 season in 2025 that was FIU’s first winning year since 2018.
FCS notes — Florida A&M (2-4, first-year coach Quinn Gray) and Bethune-Cookman (3-3) will meet in the Florida Classic on November 21 in Orlando.
Florida Power Rankings (Through Week 6)
- Miami (5-0) — No. 3 nationally, with the top-ranked offense and defense in the country. It’s not close.
- Florida (4-2) — The Ole Miss win still counts and the roster talent is real, but the offense has stalled and two straight blowout losses are a worrying trend.
- USF (4-2) — The record looks better than the résumé after back-to-back losses, but the Bulls are still in the bowl hunt. Hartine absolutely has this program headed in the right direction.
- Florida State (3-3) — The talent is better than the record, but the defense and the quarterback play have both been inconsistent, and the Seminoles are a 21.5-point underdog this week.
- FAU (4-1) — A quietly solid start under Kittley, including the Shula Bowl win.
- UCF (3-3) — A middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team with a couple of solid wins, idle this week.
- FIU (3-3) — Holding steady after last year’s breakthrough, still searching for consistency. Remember when the Canes were losing to this team?! What a nightmare.
If the ranking holds, the gap between first and second is the biggest it’s been in years. The Hurricanes will have a chance to widen it on Saturday night.
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