Stock Up, Stock Down (9.21.26)

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STOCK UP

Quinton Martin

I do a weekly spot on Zach Seyko’s “Locked On Nittany Lions” podcast, and one of the discussions we had last week was, of course, about the running backs and what we wanted to see moving forward. I said I continue to favor Quinton Martin as far as upside, but that all four running backs are pretty close as far as ability. While I don’t expect a four-man running back rotation, I just haven’t seen a ton from any one of them that would make me think they should be getting 75% of the carries.

I continue to believe that, especially after solid day from all four running backs on Saturday. But I also continue to believe that Quinton Martin deserves more carries than he’s gotten. So much of Martin’s performance yesterday will be about turning a 5-ish yard gain into a 61-yard run because he successfully broke a tackle out in space. Those explosive runs have been missing the last two weeks so it was a very much welcomed sight. But even in the short-yardage, tight situations, I just think Martin offers you a little more wiggle than the others. Hansen is see-hole, hit-hole. Peoples has good speed, but is really a one-cut-and-go guy. Not to say that Martin is Reggie Bush 2.0, but he has a slipperiness and suddenness that I just don’t see from the others.

All the talk after the game — from Matt Campbell and Martin himself — was that Martin was coming off a great week of practice. That’s why he went from zero carries against Temple to getting a first quarter series with the starters against Buffalo. Hopefully, his practice habits keep up because Penn State could use his juice coming out of the backfield.

Ethan Grunkemeyer and Luke Reynolds

While I had LSU/Ole Miss on the main TV, Saturday night did offer me the first time I was able to watch a Virginia Tech game this season. James Franklin did what he does best: beat the Maryland Terrapins. The Hokies went up 35-14, and then tried to sit on the lead for 1.5 quarters. Maryland mounted a bit of a comeback — they scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, failing the two-point conversion twice to make it a 9-point game — but Virginia Tech was able to ice the game with a Grunkemeyer-to-Reynolds connection on 4th down.

Ethan Grunkemeyer and Luke Reynolds were the story for the Hokies on Saturday night. Grunk lit up the Terrapins for 314 yards on 79% completion percentage and 3 passing touchdowns. Reynolds was his main target, finishing the night with 12 receptions for 107 yards and 1 touchdown.

As you could probably deduce from their starts, both Grunk and Reynolds looked like the best versions of themselves. That probably isn’t surprising for Penn State fans who saw Grunk’s progression as last season went along. He displayed a total command of the offense, and his anticipation of throws and overall ball placement really is pretty.

Reynolds’ performance might be a bit more surprising, given his up-and-down sophomore season in Happy Valley, but he looked every bit that of a top tight end in the country. He’s just super dangerous with the ball in his hands, and offensive coordinator Ty Howle clearly took something from Andy Kotelnicki: get the ball to Warren Reynolds.

I know a lot of the detractors will say it was “just Maryland.” Which, sure, yes. I saw tweets from the likes of Bud Elliot mentioning that James Franklin might still have his job in Happy Valley if Drew Allar left after 2024 and Grunk took over.

I think that’s a rather misguided thing to say given that Allar’s issue wasn’t putting up good performances against the likes of Maryland, but rather the elite defenses in the sport — Ohio State, Michigan, etc. The good news for Grunk and Reynolds and the rest of the Hokies: Virginia Tech’s schedule is barren of any challenges that resemble a Buckeye or Wolverine defense. They have a road trip to Miami that will be a real test, but the SP+ defensive rankings of the rest?

Boston College: 82nd
Pitt: 36th
Cal: 74th
Georgia Tech: 58th
Clemson: 27th
SMU: 41st
Stanford: 80th
UVA: 23rd

So I think these two will continue to have a ton of success — potentially all the way to the 2027 NFL Draft. That’s probably more for Reynolds than Grunk, but very impressed by both former Penn Staters.

STOCK DOWN

Sacks and TFLs

The Penn State defense has been very good through three games, even considering the opponent. Marshall didn’t score a touchdown the entire day, while Temple and Buffalo only scored touchdowns on the last drive of the game while the Nittany Lions were *maybe* not going 100% with their starters. Still, that doesn’t mean the defense isn’t without some faults. The chief among them? They aren’t generating much in the way of sacks and TFLs. They have just 5 sacks and 15 TFLs, both good for 75th and 76th in the country, respectively.

Some of this is still a small sample size where one dominant game can skew the averages. For example, Indiana has 26 TFLs good for 6th in the nation, but much of that is aided by a 12-TFL performance against Howard. So the more games are played, the more this starts to average out. I think the problem for Penn State is after an OOC of Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, you’d like to see them being the ones cheesing on bad competition.

The concern moving forward is obvious: without sacks and TFLs, you aren’t as likely to put teams behind schedule. So while you can still get three-and-outs against a Marshall or Temple without getting into the backfield, how will that work in Big Ten play?

Part of this is by design. D’Anton Lynn wanted Penn State to get bigger across the board on the defensive line. Last year’s starting D-Line had an average weight of 277.5 pounds. This year? A robust 292 pounds. Going from the mid-270s to up over 290 is a big jump. This is a beefier group, and while that should come with improved run defense, it also comes with the downside as far as them not being as twitchy. This is where the loss of Max Granville hurts because he was one of the few defensive ends that was a change of pace guy, as far as being someone who can lineup on the edge and speed rush past an offensive tackle. Without a weapon like that, you’re probably blitzing more in hopes of getting home, which of course leaves you susceptible on the backend.

TLDR; How about we get like 5 sacks and 8 TFLs against Wisconsin?

USC’s Defense

After the aforementioned D’Anton Lynn left USC for Penn State last offseason, the Trojans went out and hired former TCU head coach Gary Patterson to take over as the Trojans’ defensive coordinator. As it turns out, maybe hiring a 66-year-old who hasn’t been a full-time coach since 2021 to reshape your defense wasn’t the smartest decision. The USC defense had a shutout against Fresno State, and OK performances against San Jose State (26 points, 23 coming in garbage time though) and Louisiana-Lafayette (30 points, 13 coming in the 4th quarter), but any hope for an improved USC defense I think went out the window with their performance against Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights — which could only muster up 21 points against the likes of UMass and Boston College — dropped 35 points on USC, putting up 460 yards of total offense in a narrow 42-35 defeat.

I worry about how Penn State will handle USC’s passing attack and their ability to spread the defense out, but man, I watched a lot of this USC/Rutgers game and this is a Lincoln Riley team if I’ve ever seen one. “A Lincoln Riley team” meaning a SOFT ASS squad. Matt Campbell talks about toughness and discipline and grit and if that is true, it should prevail over this USC team in a primetime White Out atmosphere.

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