Sunday School: 2026 Preseason
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Hello there. And welcome back to football season!
It has been a moment since I wrote this column. About fifteen years ago, Sean Callahan at HuskerOnline asked me if I wanted to write a Sunday postgame column. I think he came up with the title “Sunday School with the Bishop,” which we just shortened to “Sunday School.” A rather pretentious title, as there are far many others who could “school” you on the finer points of football. But we were playing off the connection between Sunday School and bishops, so why not?
I moved the column over to our website at KLIN.com once we started to populate that website with original content, but then, after my departure for 1620 The Zone, “Sunday School” was closed.
But thanks to Kaleb and Jack and the rebirth of Huskers Illustrated, Sunday School is open again, and I’m happy to stretch my writing legs and try to add to your Sunday postgame breakfast intake of Husker football commentary and analysis.
As far as introductions go, I realize that many of you probably associate my name with the Creighton Bluejays. I’m not shying away from that, but this will be a Husker and college football space, so this will be the one and only time we’ll spend on the Bluejays. Husker fans don’t want to hear about Creighton, and for the “Jayskers” in the audience, we can converse in other spaces.
I think I bring a fairly unique perspective to the Husker commentary universe. I’ve been following this program for over 45 years, was raised in the shadow of its ascendancy to national prominence, grew up during its glory years and matured during the current “dim ages.” I think there are plenty of folks who can bring the “fan” spin to their coverage. That’s not my place here. I believe I can add to your intake as someone with an appreciation and understanding of the history and the fanbase, knowledge of the product and a critical eye. And there will be numbers. Lots and lots of numbers. I’ve been curating various statistics and trends for several years and have shared many of these on my radio show, Unsportsmanlike Conduct on 1620 The Zone. I am glad I now have a place to publish these and hopefully they will add to the greater understanding of how and why things happened on Saturday and how they fit into historic trends.
Now that the introduction is complete, let’s do a quick primer as to what I see are the big stories entering the 2026 season.
Matt Rhule’s Seat
With a buyout of $64 million, should they part ways after the 2026 season, the idea that Matt Rhule is sitting on a warm, much less hot, seat this season is not something I plan to entertain in conversation. To put this buyout in perspective, consider the largest contract buyouts in college football, according to CBS Sports.
- Jimbo Fisher, $76.8 million (Texas A&M, 2023)
- Brian Kelly, $53.8 million (LSU, 2025)
- James Franklin, $49 million (Penn State, 2025)
- Gus Malzahn, $21.4 million (Auburn, 2020)
- Billy Napier, $21.2 million (Florida, 2025)
- Charlie Weis, $18.9 million (Notre Dame, 2009)
Rhule’s would be the second-highest ever if it happened after this season OR next ($55 million after 2027) and it would be the fourth-highest after 2028 ($44.5 million) and 2029 ($33.75 million). For an athletic department that has already paid out record numbers of contracts over the years, I don’t see them willing to join this list any time soon. Especially with a $600 million (for now) stadium renovation bill coming due over the next several years.
What is interesting is how the reality of that contract and the job security it brings means to the overall conversation. The apathy has been as strong if not stronger than any time I can recall prior to a season. While that doesn’t mean the fans have abandoned the Big Red, it does mean how they react to the ebbs and flows of this season could be rather unique. There is potential for a quick start. There are also ample opportunities for some season-defining upsets and ranked wins. Certainly, that could lift spirits and create some real optimism.
Of course, there are also chances for hard times and another troublesome November to crash any good vibes into the ground like last season. Nebraska’s record in November has been bad over the last decade.
- 2016: 2-2 (two losses by 30+ points)
- 2017: 0-4 (three losses by double-digits)
- 2018: 2-2
- 2019: 1-3
- 2020: 1-3
- 2021: 0-3
- 2022: 1-3
- 2023: 0-4
- 2024: 1-3
- 2025: 1-3
That’s a 9-30 November record and not even a .500 month since 2018. While it is just one of three months, I think Nebraska’s season and, frankly, how folks ultimately feel about Rhule will be defined by what happens this November. With three road games (Illinois, Rutgers & Iowa) and only one home game (Ohio State), a 2-2 split could be viewed as a victory for Rhule’s program and a chance for momentum (with a strong recruiting class) heading into 2027.
Coordinator Changes
The defense needed a refresh. The one-year John Butler experiment will rank as one of Rhule’s poorer decisions and the move away from Butler and the 3-3-5 defense to Rob Aurich and his 4-2-5 will be closely followed. Aurich brings with him some necessary player-leaders in Owen Chambliss and Dwayne McDougle III to help shepherd in the new scheme and the back end is going to have to do a lot of heavy-lifting as a much-beleaguered defensive line both tries to reload with new faces and rebuild some damaged psyches.
Meanwhile, no coordinator has more to live up to in terms of who they are replacing than Brett Maher. Mike Ekeler turned Nebraska’s special teams fortunes upside down in the best way possible and while he and Rhule mixed like oil and water, sometimes that kind of tension can be a good thing for an organization. Challenging ideas, refusing to be “yes men” is not a bad thing if you expect growth. You also can forgive a little office tension for real, tangible success. Now Rhule trades away tension, headaches, ego and spastic sideline behavior for an inexperienced coordinator who will try to cook using Ekeler’s recipe. If it works, folks will soon forget Ekeler, but if special teams takes a notable step back, fans will not be forgiving of Rhule for once again taking the experimental route to staff hiring.
Colandrea/Holgorsen & The Shape Of The Offense
Nebraska will have mobility again at the QB position, which will help add some much-needed flexibility and improvisation to the offense. Anthony Colandrea’s gunslinger mentality and ability to shake and bake have been oft-discussed since his shotgun marriage to the Husker program last February. But what does this mean for Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen, who has not been the offensive revelation that was hoped when he hopped on the train late in 2024?
Will having Colandrea’s go-for-broke attitude and shiftiness help make Holgorsen find his fastball as a play-caller? Will the risk-aversion that the program has been emphasizing the last two seasons give way to riskier business but big-play success? A seasoned offensive line with an accomplished coach in Geep Wade should help, but the offense will also be trying to break in a new starting running back, replacing the most irreplaceable asset they had last season in Emmett Johnson. For the umpteenth year in a row, the wide receiver room is being touted as a strength. Will it finally happen this time? The QB and the play caller will have a lot to say about that.
N-Side The Numbers
This will be a weekly feature of Sunday School. As mentioned above, I have been tracking a variety of different numbers for several years. Starting in 2026, here are just a few I’ll be interested to see if Nebraska trends in a more positive direction.
Point Spread Differential
This is the difference between the final game margin and what the oddsmakers had the game listed. It’s really a good way to judge if a team is good at exceeding expectations and which ones underachieve. Here’s where Matt Rhule’s teams have been:
- 2023: 4-7-1 Against The Spread (ATS); -14 spread differential
- 2024: 7-4-2 ATS; -7 spread differential
- 2025: 4-8-1 ATS; -36 spread differential
In the first two seasons, the negative differential was carried by two early-season bad losses (Colorado & Michigan in 2023) while the Indiana blowout in 2024 made that season seem worse than it was.
But last year, Nebraska really struggled achieving versus the number in the second half of the season. They were -24.5 spread differential at Minnesota, -20 at Penn State, -18.5 vs. Iowa and -8.5 vs. Utah. Those are some easy covers for the opposition. Nebraska badly underachieved down the stretch, certainly a factor in why so many Husker fans have had the sour belches this offseason.
Turnover Margin
Nebraska finished +2 last season, the first time since 2016 that NU had more takeaways than giveaways, so the risk-averse strategy has paid off to a degree. But you’ll have a QB with a history of taking risks and giving the ball away and if you believe that you must risk a little to gain a little, then the biggest thing you need is a defense that can give you the ball back. Nebraska has been a bottom-half team the last six seasons in defensive takeaways, never finishing in the nation’s top-60 in turnovers gained. This math equation is perhaps my #1 question heading into the fall.
A curious stat through three seasons of Matt Rhule is how Nebraska has not succeeded as well when breaking even in the turnover margin game-to-game. Since 1973, Nebraska’s record when pushing the turnover margin is 96-39-2, a .711-win percentage. But only two coaches since 1973 (Scott Frost & Rhule) have LOSING records when the turnover margin is even. So far, Nebraska is just 5-7 under Rhule in these games (Frost was 4-7). If Nebraska wants to take a step forward, they have to find a way to be better in the break-even games.
Red Zone Efficiency
This is BOTH sides of the coin – offense and defense. When you are last (or practically last) in a national statistic, that’s a problem. Well, last was exactly what Nebraska’s defense was in allowing Red Zone touchdowns. On 38 opponent possessions that reached inside the Nebraska 20-yard line, Nebraska allowed 30 touchdowns, worst in the country. Additionally, they only stopped one team from scoring when they reached the Red Zone. As stated above, Nebraska is not a great team at gaining turnovers, but the best defenses find a way to deny touchdowns when the opponent is at an advantage.
On offense, Nebraska was mid-pack nationally (66th) in Red Zone scoring but only 95th when it came to scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone. The good news is Nebraska has seen slight improvement (from 125th to 103rd to 95th) in Red Zone TD percentage under Matt Rhule season-to-season. The bad news is that it’s still below the national average. I think if Nebraska is to reach 8 wins and/or end the AP-ranked losing streak, this is a number that needs to improve. To get there, the Huskers need around a 60% Red Zone TD rate. It takes only a couple more Red Zone TDs to get there and that can make up the difference in what should be a season with a few one-possession games.
Colandrea Offensive Rate
This one is a bit unusual, but how much Nebraska’s offense relies on its quarterback to generate yards is a statistic that interests me in 2026. Last year at UNLV, Colandrea accounted for 66% of the Rebels’ total yards. A rate like that would be the highest at Nebraska by an individual since Zac Taylor accounted for 68% of Nebraska’s offense in 2005.
Percentage of Nebraska Total Offense (single season leaders since 1962)
- 2005 – Zac Taylor .6795
- 2017 – Tanner Lee .6593
- 2008 – Joe Ganz .6529
- 2021 – Adrian Martinez .6307
- 2012 – Taylor Martinez .6030
With questions of who will gain the rushing yards, it feels like 2026 is a season where the quarterback is going to have to generate a lot of offense. Unless a star does emerge at running back, I think Colandrea is going to have to push that 65% threshold of offensive yards for Nebraska to make a bowl game this season. As you can see by the above list, there’s no real barometer for how good the season is when a Husker QB has to carry such a load, but I think this season will need to rely heavily on their new field general.
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