Surveying the schedule: Ranking BYU’s 12 football games in 2026 by order of difficulty

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Even though they’ve got one of the most difficult schedules in the Big 12 and mighty Notre Dame visits Provo in the middle of October with its sights set on a national championship run, hype for the BYU Cougars in 2026 is through the roof.

Why not?

BYU has gone 23-4 overall in the past two seasons, just missing out on College Football Playoff appearances in 2024 and 2025, and returns almost all of the key ingredients from the outfit that won 12 games last year, most notably quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin.

“That’s the challenge this year, not feeling like we’ve arrived or done anything special, because we haven’t won a game yet. I think these guys also know that everything people say, good or bad, is nonsense, really. All that matters is what you do in the game.”

BYU OC Aaron Roderick

About the only questions for the Cougars, ranked No. 14 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll, are at special teams and receiver. They are absolutely loaded with talent and experience everywhere else.

Of course, coach Kalani Sitake is hesitant to jump on the “CFP or Bust” bandwagon, as is his way. Curt Cignetti, he is not. Entering his 11th season, Sitake continues to promote the “hungry and humble” mindset that served him well the past two years.

About the closest Sitake has gotten to boarding the hype train came last week when he was asked about the Cougars readiness level with preseason training camp drawing to a close this week.

“It’s gonna be a lot of fun, playing some real football now, and seeing the guys learn and develop in the last couple weeks has been awesome, and I’m really excited where this has headed,” Sitake said. “We have to take advantage of all the time that we have.”

Sitake said the team is not resting on its laurels, evidenced in the way it approached offseason workouts.

“The guys were way more ready than ever before, so things were a lot easier (in camp),” he said. “You could tell these guys spent a lot of time being football junkies and studying the game and studying (film).

“They did a lot of player-run meetings and player-run practices where they actually got together and took the initiative themselves to get their team ready,” he continued. “So, a lot of the teaching was already done before we even got to camp, and I’m really pleased with the way they responded to it.”

National college football experts have jumped aboard, with Brett McMurphy of On3.com saying BYU is the most underrated team in the entire AP preseason poll in 2026 and Stewart Mandell of The Athletic predicting an 11-1 regular season and a victory over Houston in the Big 12 championship game for a berth in the CFP.

That’s heady stuff. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick says the Cougars are paying no attention to it.

“That’s the challenge this year, not feeling like we’ve arrived or done anything special, because we haven’t won a game yet,” Roderick said. “I think these guys also know that everything people say, good or bad, is nonsense, really. All that matters is what you do in the game.”

Roderick and Sitake both said nobody is talking about a final record, or CFP appearance, just yet.

“We’re definitely not listening to anybody say how good we are, because we haven’t done anything. And last year, we won five or six games where we had to come from a two-score (deficit). … We won a bunch of games in the fourth quarter,” Roderick said. “Everybody here is humble enough to know those games can go either way if you don’t do everything right. So we’re just staying humble and continuing to work.”

Ranking BYU’s schedule ahead of most-anticipated season ever

With arguably the most-anticipated season in BYU football history finally here, this is as good of a time as any to present our annual rating of the Cougars’ football schedule, in order of difficulty.

It should be noted that this isn’t a ranking of the best teams on the schedule. Instead, it is an analysis of which games will be the most difficult for BYU to win, with factors such as venues, travel complications, history and rivalry factored in.

Former BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall used to expound at length on how hard it is to win college football games, especially on the road. We agree. That’s why even though Arizona is probably the second- or third-best team on the schedule, we’re are ranking the game on Sept. 12 as the sixth-most difficult for the Cougars to win.

Predictions are never perfect. Last year, for instance, we ranked BYU’s game at Iowa State on Oct. 25 as the hardest to win. Turns out, the game at Texas Tech two weeks later was the most difficult, a 29-7 Red Raiders victory.

One of the reasons why we love college football so much, despite all the peripheral court rulings and eligibility messes that tilt the playing field, is its unpredictable nature. With all that in mind, here’s our ranking of BYU’s games in 2026, from hardest to easiest:

1. Notre Dame

Speaking of hype, the Irish’s Oct. 17 visit to LES for the first time since 2004, when BYU won 20-17, needs none. But imagine the excitement if both teams are undefeated? Notre Dame likely will be, with a fairly soft first-half schedule that includes Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford.

BYU will have an extra day to get ready, as the Cougars host Iowa State on Friday, Oct. 9, while ND hosts the Cardinal on Saturday, Oct. 10. Notre Dame is an early 10.5-point favorite, further evidence that this will be BYU’s hardest game since last year’s two matchups with Texas Tech.

The Irish are No. 4 in the AP preseason poll, but expectations in South Bend are as high as they are in Provo, perhaps higher.

2. At Utah

Another game that needs no hype is BYU-Utah, regardless of the sport or the records. Sure, BYU won 22-21 the last time it visited Rice-Eccles Stadium, courtesy of Will Ferrin’s game-winning 45-yard field goal, but breakthroughs on the Hill were few and far between before then.

Adding to the intrigue is that both squads should be in contention to play in the Big 12 championship game, along with Texas Tech due to the Red Raiders’ softer schedule. New Utah coach Morgan Scalley and BYU’s Sitake spent a lot of time at the Big 12 media days last month talking about their hopes for a kinder, gentler, more respectful rivalry.

That’s all well and good — until somebody loses the rivalry game. Can the Cougars extend their three-game winning streak over the Utes, or will Utah prevail on its home turf?

3. At TCU

Picking TCU as BYU’s third-hardest game might turn some heads — the Frogs aren’t getting a lot of preseason hype — but consider this: BYU almost always struggles to win in Fort Worth, regardless of whether TCU is good, or not. That 31-17 win over TCU in 2006 is a distant memory for most BYU fans.

TCU’s 44-11 blasting of the Cougars in 2023 is not.

Sure, BYU dominated TCU last year in Provo, but this matchup has the feeling of a big revenge game for the Frogs, even if Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig isn’t as good as the departed Josh Hoover, now at Indiana.

4. At UCF

Why are the Knights, who went 5-7 in 2025 (2-7 in the Big 12) and were blown out by BYU in Provo, ranked at No. 4 on our list? It’s simple. Just look at the schedule.

While BYU is playing host to Notre Dame on Oct. 17 and likely exhausting every bit of emotional energy in Provo, UCF’s guys will be chilling out on their couches with a week of preparation for BYU under their belts. For BYU, this cross-country trip to face a team loaded with athletes in coach Scott Frost’s second year of his second stint in Orlando feels like a nightmare waiting to happen.

5. At Kansas

Quarterback Jalon Daniels is predicted to make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ roster after going undrafted last April, but for BYU fans, having the veteran QB out of the league is good news in and of itself. Kansas is 2-0 against BYU in Big 12 games, which should give the Cougars pause as they eye a Nov. 21 trip to Lawrence.

These may not be Daniels’ Jayhawks, having gone 5-7 each of the past two years, but another subpar season could put coach Lance Leipold on the hot seat. A win over a nationally ranked BYU team at renovated David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium could keep the hounds at bay.

Dylan Edwards from rival Kansas State should give KU a big-time rushing threat, while Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall will likely jockey to be the starting QB for much of the season.

6. Arizona

Arizona’s Week 2 trip to BYU has already received more than its share of hype, as Arizona coach Brent Brennan pumped it up at the Big 12 media days last month. It should be a toasty one in Provo, with a 1:30 p.m. MDT kickoff scheduled to accommodate Fox television.

It should also be a fantastic quarterback showdown, as Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita returns to LES after having played miserably two years ago in front of a national television audience. To many, this is the biggest obstacle in regards to BYU being undefeated for the Notre Dame game, but we think the TCU trip is a bit more challenging.

7. Arizona State

For the first time since Arizona State edged BYU 28-23 in Tempe to set off not one, but two, field stormings, the Cougars get their chance for revenge on Halloween in Provo.

The Devils won’t have feisty quarterback Sam Leavitt — he’s making millions at LSU now — but are still dangerous enough to pull off the upset. In a preseason poll of Big 12 beat writers, Arizona State was picked to finish seventh in the league. A lot depends on the play of Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley and whether a revamped ASU defense can handle Cougars QB Bear Bachmeier.

8. Baylor

ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 76.4% chance of beating the Bears on Nov. 14 in Provo, which might be the nail in the coffin for embattled Baylor coach Dave Aranda, a former Utah State assistant. Then again, a win for the Bears after BYU won 26-20 in double overtime in Provo four years ago could be just what the doctor ordered to save the coach’s job.

Baylor has brought in a veteran QB — Florida’s DJ Lagway — but is replacing four of five starters on its offensive line. With BYU’s pass rush expected to be much-improved, it could be a long night for the former Gator in Provo.

9. Cincinnati

Cincinnati saw itself make headlines in the offseason, but for all the wrong reasons, as quarterback Brendan Sorsby left for Texas Tech and then was ruled ineligible by the NCAA for gambling on games involving his own team when he was at Indiana. That admission certainly didn’t look good for the Bearcats, either.

Cincinnati will be another one of those teams looking for revenge against BYU, after the Cougars dominated them on the ground to pull out a 26-14 win in the Queen City last November.

10. At Colorado State

Why is BYU playing this game? Good question. It was agreed to in September 2024, with the first game Sept. 19, 2026, in Fort Collins and the second game scheduled to happen in Provo in 2029.

The Rams have already marked their calendars for this one, while for BYU it is a chance to see CSU’s 10-year-old stadium after having played at the old Hughes Stadium all those years when the schools were conference mates.

Colorado State is picked to finish eighth (last) in the reconstructed Pac-12 — this is not your dad’s Pac-12 — in 2026 as it will be breaking in a new coach, Jim Mora. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 94.7% chance to win, which seems a bit high.

11. Iowa State

After predicting that their first trip to Ames last year would be ultra-difficult for the Cougars, we’ve changed our tune in 2026 regarding the Cyclones. And Iowa State partly has BYU coach Kalani Sitake to blame.

Sitake turning down serious overtures from Penn State last December and staying in Provo meant that the Nittany Lions set their sights on successful ISU coach Matt Campbell.

And they got him. And then he took no fewer than 23 players with him to State College, most notably QB Rocco Becht and tight end Ben Brahmer. All told, 103 players transferred out of Ames.

To say the Cyclones are rebuilding under new coach Jimmy Rogers would be an understatement. We see this as being the second-easiest game on the BYU schedule, behind only the season-opening visit from a former junior college.

12. Utah Tech

The Trailblazers will have one minor advantage when they visit LaVell Edwards Stadium for the second time in five years as a huge underdog — around 50 points, at last glance — on Sept. 5. Utah Tech will have a game under its belt, as the St. George school from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) plays host to Montana State on Saturday.

Not that it will matter. BYU should be able to name the score in this instate encounter, much like last year when it opened the season with a 69-0 thumping of Portland State. Utah Tech went 2-10 last year, defeating only Northern Iowa and North Alabama, 34-33 in overtime.

Then again, stranger things have happened, such as in 2022 when Utah Tech visited BYU in late November and had leads of 6-0 and 13-7 before BYU took control midway through the second quarter and eventually won, 52-26.

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