Texas Football Preview 2026: Can Arch Manning and the Longhorns Finish the Job?

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Under Steve Sarkisian, Texas is doing exactly what you're supposed to do in the modern age of college football.

Keep cranking out good team after good team, and eventually, the right breaks and key moments will go your way.

Texas has another good team with the talent and ability to be in the College Football Playoff national title mix. Now it needs to have that special spark and magic to make it all work.

Can Texas Do Enough to Get Back to the College Football Playoff?

It's been quickly forgotten just how blah Texas was before 2023.

This is one of those superpower programs that's bound by absolutely nothing. No one has more money, resources, power, or support, and yet from the moment Colt McCoy got injured against Alabama in the BCS Championship in the 2009 season, Texas fell flat.

From 2010 to 2022, the Longhorns had just one ten-win season, and it took a bowl victory in 2018 to get there.

In came Sarkisian, it took two years to build things up, and then it all exploded.

Texas should've beaten Washington in the College Football Playoff three years ago, but it didn't kick the passing game in until it was too late – and it still almost pulled it off.

It was one historically awful late set of plays against Ohio State from playing Notre Dame for the national title two years ago, and last season, had it played Ohio instead of Ohio State to start the year, it would've been in the CFP.

This year's team requires some reworking on defense, upgrading on offense, and thoughts and prayers when it comes to navigating a brutal schedule, but Sarkisian has the talent, the coaching staff, and he has a potential transcendent quarterback talent as Arch Manning comes into his own.

Texas will keep on being great. First, get to at least ten wins and get into the tournament, and this might just be the year that the right breaks come.

– 2026 Texas Schedule Analysis

Texas Quick Hits

• Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (6th year: 48-20, 12th full season overall: 93-55)
• Best Case / Worst Case: Win the national championship/Miss out on the College Football Playoff again
• Key Player: Arch Manning, QB Jr.
• 2025 Record: 10-3
• Biggest Question: Is the schedule too tough for the Longhorns to only lose two games or fewer?

Texas Key 2025 Stats

• Penalties: Texas 108 for 906 yards, Opponents 75 for 561 yards 
• 3rd Quarter Scoring: Texas 108, Opponents 26
• Sacks: Texas 41 for 258 yards, Opponents 23 for 138 yards

Offense

Offensive coordinator Kyle Flood will do more with the attack this season.

As rough as things were at times, this offense was good, but it was supposed to be special, and it wasn't.

It starts with doing more with the running game behind a more experienced and stronger line, and then there's the obvious big factor – the main man under center has a year under his belt.

What’s Working

Arch Manning is really, really good. That's not as obvious as it might seem for some.

The can't-miss of can't-miss prospects had the world on his shoulders going into last season, and a bad national narrative was set because he wasn't amazing against … Ohio State.

It was only the best defense in America by a relative mile that Arch had to deal with, but that didn't stop people from dunking on him after every rocky moment.

But he fought through the adversity, and he started to look the part over the second half of the season.

He finished with 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns with just seven picks, ran for ten touchdowns, and most of all, he got through it. And now …

Texas has the receivers. Last year's group was good, but now it should be at a whole other level, starting with the return of leading man Ryan Wingo coming off a 54-catch season with seven scores.

In comes Cam Coleman, possibly the nation's best non-quarterback transfer – he caught 93 passes for over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns in two years at Auburn.

The running backs are in place. The ground game wasn't great, but Manning ran well, and there were a few good moments. It's Texas, though – it needed a star.

Leading rusher Tre Wisner took off for Florida State, and in comes a powerhouse 1-2 flash of lightning.

Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State) combined for over 2,000 yards between their respective schools – they were two of the top backs in the portal.

What Needs Work

The offensive line has to be much, much stronger. It didn't do much of anything for the ground game, and that has to change in a hurry.

Defenses occasionally dared Manning to win games through the air, but it was a chicken-egg thing with the rushing attack not doing anything to help 16.

Bringing in tackle Melvin Siani from Wake Forest is a big help, and Laurence Seymore (WKU) is a terrific guard.

The starters are back at the other three spots, and the depth is better.

Good things happened when the running game worked. Not surprisingly, Texas won impressively – including against Texas A&M – when it ran for over 200 yards. 

It wasn't a high bar. Texas went 9-1 when running for more than 55 yards. The one outlier loss? Ohio State.

Third down conversions. This wasn't some flash-and-dash attack that didn't care about time of possession. Texas had a hard time keeping things moving, and it mattered. 

To be repetitive, not having a great ground game had a lot to do with that.

Converting 39% of its chances wasn't bad, but the offense only connected 17% of the time in the loss to Georgia, and 27% in the tough defeat against Florida.

Player to Watch

Trevor Goosby, OT Jr.
He's not at the same level as Kelvin Banks – the former star offensive tackle selected ninth overall by New Orleans in 2025 – but the 6-7, 325-pound left tackle has top 15 overall potential.

First, he has to be the star of a line that has to start blasting away more for the running game. More importantly, scouts will be watching if Goosby keeps Arch from getting hit.

Defense

Will Muschamp was a superstar defensive coordinator his first time around with the Longhorns, and now he's back after working the last several years at Georgia.

There's work to do with a defense that was just okay by UT's standards – allowing 339 yards and 20 points per game – and now has to replace most of the key starters.

What’s Working

Will Muschamp. It helped that Mack Brown's Longhorns were a recruiting machine in the late 2000s, but Muschamp had a whole lot to do with that.

His defenses were among the best in America until 2010, and then he took off for the Florida head coaching job.

If anything, he's among the most underrated national hires of the offseason.

Colin Simmons is back on the edge. The best pass rusher in the SEC last year is back, leading the conference with 12 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss on one side.

He's a game-wrecker who needs attention on every play, and sophomore Lance Jackson and edge rushers will benefit on the other side.

The linebackers will be a problem for the SEC. Losing star Anthony Hill hurts, but Ty'Anthony Smith is a fast playmaker in the middle, coming off a 60-tackle season.

In comes Rasheem Biles from Pitt to make plays all over the field in place of Hill, and helping the rotation is Justin Cryer (Florida State) for the inside and Markus Boswell (Akron) for the outside.

What Needs Work

The secondary has to be terrific. It was good throughout last season, but it lost stars Michael Taaffe and Malik McDonald to the NFL. 

Jelani McDonald made 80 tackles with three picks from his safety spot, and Graceson Littleton is a good one no matter where he plays, but the secondary needs physical Rutgers transfer Bo Mascoe to rock at corner.

Can the defensive tackles go from great to otherworldly? There's experience, and the rotation of massive bodies is impressive, but is there an NFL star on the inside?

Ian Geffrard is a 6-5, 378-pound mass of humanity coming in from Arkansas. Hero Kanu is still around after a nice season with 30 tackles, and Maraad Watson has 6-3, 327-pound size and the experience to do more.

Generate a pass rush every single game. Texas couldn't get to Ohio State's Julian Sayin, Georgia's Gunner Stockton, and Florida's then-starting quarterback DJ Lagway – and it showed.

The losses to Florida and Ohio State were the only two times Texas didn't come up with a sack, and it got just two against the Bulldogs.

The Longhorns averaged over four sacks per game against everyone else.

Player to Watch

Colin Simmons, EDGE Jr.
You want to appear more brilliant than you already are at parties? Throw out the possibility that Simmons – not that Manning guy – will be the first Longhorn selected in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Simmons is a 6-3, 245-pound flash of an edge rusher with 91 tackles, 21 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss over his first two seasons.

By comparison, over his last two years – one at Stanford and one at Texas Tech – No. 2 overall pick 6-3, 250-pound David Bailey made 83 tackles with 21.5 sacks and 27.5 tackles for loss.

Keys to the Season

• Arch Manning has to be every bit the superstar he's expected to be.
• The running game has to be night-and-day more effective.
• All the little things have to be right – all the penalties have to slow down.

Player Who Needs To Shine

Hollywood Smothers, RB Jr.
Raleek Brown will be a big part of the ground game, too, but Smothers has the potential to be a signature star.

He started out at Oklahoma, but took off at NC State with over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns, and with 56 catches for 452 yards and three scores over the last two years.

Biggest Concern

The running game.
It's been a running theme through all of this for a reason.

The Longhorns averaged just 138 yards per game on the ground last year, with just over four yards per carry.

The 2024 team averaged 159 yards per game, 188 per game in both 2022 and 2023, and close to 200 every time out in 2021.

With the great backs in place, and Manning taking off, averaging five yards per carry is a must.

Biggest Game

at LSU, November 14
The Ohio State showdown in Week 2 will set the tone for the rest of the season, and the trip to Texas A&M could be for everything.

And, of course, beating Oklahoma is always a must, but that game has a weird way of being its own entity – Oklahoma lost last year, and it still got into the College Football Playoff.

Going to LSU will be a bear this season as part of a brutal November. This is just part two in a run of three road games in the final four weeks.

Transfer Portal

Texas needed more parts than usual, and there was a little more swapping than some might like.

Usually, a program like Texas wants to keep all of its top guys, will lose some key twos on the depth chart, and go grab sure-thing mega-prospects to upgrade where possible.

That's basically what happened, but there were a few players – like receivers Parker Livingstone (Oklahoma) and DeAndre Moore (Colorado) – who would be great to have around. But the receiving corps is just fine because of …

Best Signing

Cam Coleman, WR (Auburn)
Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is a mortal lock to be the first wide receiver selected in the 2027 NFL Draft, but Coleman might not be far behind.

The 6-3, 200-pound former Auburn Tiger has special, next-level speed, and now he gets Arch Manning throwing his way.

Biggest Loss

Liona Lefau, LB (Colorado)
Texas brought in a few great linebacker prospects – like Justin Cryer from Florida State – but Lefau will still be missed.

He was tied for third on the team with 69 tackles, a sack, and three broken up passes. Now he'll try to boost Coach Prime's Colorado defense.

Other Names to Know

• Ian Geffrard, DT (Arkansas)
• Gianni Spetic, PK (Memphis)
• Raleek Brown, RB (Arizona State)

CFN Season Prediction

Texas is stronger than last year in several ways. The offense should be better, stronger, and more consistent, and the defense will hold its own even with so many new parts.

The coaching staff is ridiculously good, there are at least four legitimate first round draft picks to work around, and …

For almost anyone else, the schedule would ensure a losing season.

CFN Prediction: 10-2

The Longhorns miss Alabama and Georgia – that's great no matter what – but all things considered, you'd rather have Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt on the slate than many of the other SEC teams Texas has to deal with.

At Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, and Ole Miss – oh yeah, and that's just part of the first half of the season that also includes a visit from Ohio State.

On the plus side, there are three home games in a row in mid-to-late October. And then there's November.

At Missouri, at LSU, Arkansas, at Texas A&M.

It's a schedule built for several losses, but Texas can't afford that.

Texas should find a way to get to 10-2, and it'll prove that it's a power team with national championship potential. Getting to the College Football Playoff won't be easy, but under Sarkisian, that's the standard now.

Related: Texas 2026 Football Schedule Breakdown and Analysis

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