Texas is predicted to beat Arkansas, but it might not be the blowout everyone expects
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Texas enters the weekend as a comfortable double-digit favorite, and most projections say the Longhorns will simply impose their will through superior talent. It's a safe prediction. It's also incomplete.
Beneath the surface, this matchup carries the fingerprints of a game that could stay closer than betting odds predict.
Arkansas is better on paper than its record suggests
Arkansas is 2-8 this season. That alone makes people dismiss them. It shouldn't. Six of their ten games have been decided by one score. Three of their road losses have been by three points or fewer. The Razorbacks live inside the margins. They have also played almost every SEC contender this season and stayed competitive longer than expected.
A closer look at the numbers show why Arkansas can't be counted out. Taylen Green has thrown for 2,537 yards and rushed for 719 more. He is one of only eleven FBS players with at least 2,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards. He is the type of improvisational quarterback who stresses a defense even when the structure breaks. Mike Washington Jr. has rushed for 913 yards at 6.5 yards per carry. O’Mega Blake averages 13.3 yards per catch. Arkansas is explosive. They sit at 470 yards per game and 34.1 points per game. That is not the profile of a team you bury easily.
Arkansas hasn't lost eight games due to a lack of talent, but to small mistakes and a fair amount of bad luck. Green has ten interceptions. Arkansas has committed 12 fumbles and lost eight. They also lead the SEC in penalties by a wide margin, including an eighteen-flag meltdown against Mississippi State. That's how their offense can produce so much yardage, but still lose tight games.
The real matchup is Texas’ steadiness against Arkansas’ volatility
Yes, Texas is the better team, but the Longhorns cannot be stress-free coming into Saturday's game. Arch Manning has thrown for 2,374 yards with nineteen touchdowns, yet the passing attack averages only 7.6 yards per attempt. The run game is stuck at 3.7 yards per rush. Texas is scoring 27.6 points per game. Which, at first glance, seems impressive. However, that's below the standard of an elite double-digit powerhouse.
The Longhorns allow only 83 rushing yards per game. They rank sixth nationally in that metric and tenth on fourth down defense. Even against Georgia they held the Bulldogs to 4 of 11 on third down. Texas is disciplined and physical, but they are not immune to swing plays. They have given up seven interceptions on offense and lost five fumbles. Manning has also taken 21 sacks, opening the door for Arkansas’ front seven to create pressure.
If the Longhorns play clean and avoid penalties, they should control the clock and come out ahead. Arkansas does not have the pass defense to handle Manning and Ryan Wingo for four quarters. But if Texas repeats the nine penalties it committed against Vanderbilt or displays the offensive inconsistency it showed against Georgia, Arkansas has enough firepower to hang around.
This is a game where Texas controls the flow but cannot sleepwalk its way to victory. Arkansas has been punched all season and keeps swinging back. Their offense can score in chunks, and their quarterback can extend plays.
Texas should win. But the data says this could be closer than people want to admit.
Related: Texas flips versatile TE to end difficult recruiting cycle
This story was originally reported by A to Z Sports on Nov 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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