Texas State vs Rice Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Prediction
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Nothing against the Texas State vs Rice game in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, after the thriller of a Sugar Bowl between Ole Miss and Georgia, and all the electricity of the College Football Playoff, this is a big like the reception the morning after the wedding.
You feel like you have to go, everyone’s exhausted, and no one’s that fired up about it, but the food is good.
At the very least, this should have some points.
Texas State vs Rice Prediction: What to Know for the 2026 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
How To Watch Texas State vs Rice
Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
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Why Rice Will Win
Rice hasn’t won a bowl game since 2014, which was the last time it enjoyed a winning season.
It’s 5-7, here because of team opt-outs, and it’ll take its cuts to play some more football and get ready for the 2026 season.
It’s a funky team under Scott Abell with plenty of promise. The offensive line doesn’t block anyone, and the passing game is along for the ride, but when this ground attack gets moving, look out.
The Owls were able to run all over UConn in a stunning late October win. They started the season with a win over Louisiana and were good enough to hang around with Navy.
The formula is basic. Run, keep running, and keep the clock moving. Don’t be stunned when they hand the ball off 50 times and keep the ball for about 35 minutes. If they can push for 200 rushing yards, they have a shot, but nothing else works if they don’t get there.
The Owls are 0-5 when they fail to blow past 190 yards, but that might not be a problem.
Texas State generates a ton of pressure behind the line, but it’s been ripped up a bit too much on the ground – it’s 2-5 when allowing 150 yards or more. However …
Why Texas State Will Win
The guy who makes the Rice O go isn’t playing.
Quarterback Chase Jenkins is in the transfer portal, main backup Drew Devillier is moving on, too, and it’ll take some patching to figure out who’ll be running the thing.
Texas State is relatively unaffected by the transfer portal this time around, at least so far. The offense might have had a long layoff, but it should be able to rumble at will.
The passing is among the most accurate and efficient in college football, and when the balance is there from the ground attack, forget it.
Rice doesn’t have the pass rush or the playmaking defense to slow down what the Bobcats are about to bring.
No, they won’t come up with much when it comes to controlling the clock, but the warp speed tempo should convert third down after third down because …
Texas State vs Rice Prediction, Betting Lines
The Rice running game has to dominate, but Texas State’s ground game will take over early.
The Owls are 0-5 when giving up over 150 yards on the ground, and Texas State has done that in every game but three – and those were against Arizona State, James Madison, and Marshall.
This is the third bowl game in a row for the Bobcats, the third under head coach GJ Kinne, and it’s the third ever bowl game for the Texas State program as it heads off to the Pac-12 after this.
Kinne won his first two, he’ll make it three in a row as his offense goes off.
Texas State 38, Rice 20
Line: Texas State -16.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 3
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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This story was originally published by College Football News on Jan 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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