The Final Breakdown: Who Actually Wins Iowa State vs. BYU?
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The sixth week of college football kicks off from Big 12 country with one of the conference’s playoff contenders at home in a serious test in a possible trap game looking ahead to next weekend.
BYU owns a No. 8 AP ranking and is playing strong defense, but also just learned that top rusher LJ Martin won’t be able to play for a month with a lower body injury. Iowa State is still building under first-year coach Jimmy Rogers after a major roster overhaul.
BYU has one big problem on offense
A lot of the Cougar offense ran through LJ Martin, literally. Now the lead rusher is out of the picture for a month with a lower body injury. That sucks a ton of BYU’s offensive production out of this team and puts more pressure on quarterback Bear Bachmeier to make up for it.
Martin was the point man on a rushing attack that ranked 16th in the country. BYU’s vertical game is a meager 114th in FBS, posting under 180 yards per game. But they have other backs, including Bachmeier himself, who can reliably move the chains for an offense that is fourth nationally in third down conversions.
Iowa State’s momentum and challenges
The Cyclones are coming off a thrilling 45-42 win over West Virginia in which Aiden Flora delivered a standout all-around performance, accounting for 5 total touchdowns. But the Iowa State defense also struggled, allowing 518 total yards and five TD drives of 60-plus yards to an offense that is 117th in the country.
Rogers has the team playing with confidence and physicality. However, this marks their first true road trip outside Iowa on a short week against a top-10 opponent. Sustaining drives and protecting the football in a hostile environment will be critical.
BYU vs. Iowa State Prediction: Who Wins?
DraftKings Line: BYU -10.5 | Total: 46.5
BYU’s ability to pressure the quarterback and stop the run should dictate the game in its favor over time. If Iowa State can establish the ground game and force the Cougars into longer drives, the Cyclones have a realistic path to stay competitive. Otherwise, BYU’s balance and home-field edge are likely to wear them down.
The Big Lead picks…
- BYU wins 31-17
- Covers the spread
- And hits the over
MORE: Predicting Big 12 football scores in Week 6: Who’s on upset alert?
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