The five Week 1 college football games with biggest Playoff impact
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We're 150 days away from the College Football Playoff Championship in Las Vegas, but it's never too early to start looking ahead. And as long as the bracket stays at 12 teams, every game matters.
Here are five games in Week 1 with significant CFP implications. Four of them will probably be obvious; the fifth one is going to require some expanding logic.
No. 23 Clemson at No. 13 LSU
Another LSU win means that program permanently owns the "Death Valley" naming rights, even if LSU was so miserable after winning at Clemson last year that it still fired Brian Kelly midseason.
This is Lane Kiffin’s first game in charge at LSU, and college football’s $91-million man certainly could use a debut win. Dabo Swinney should crave this opportunity, too. Clemson has just one game remaining on its schedule against a ranked team, No. 7 Miami, after this opener. LSU has five, plus the willingness of Greg Sankey to tout metrics displaying the SEC as college football’s God-incarnate league.
A loss here would leave Clemson 1-5 in its past six games against top-10 foes; worse still, it ignites questions anew about Dabo’s standing and Clemson’s own in college football.
Louisville vs. No. 10 Ole Miss (in Nashville)
Two things can be true simultaneously: Pete Golding owns the most consequential wins in modern football history as Ole Miss coach, and Pete Golding is coaching his first regular-season game as Ole Miss coach.
Louisville’s Jeff Brohm is coaching his 151st game as a college head coach. There’s a comfort in that headset-advantage for the Cardinals, who — you guessed it — also have just one more game on their schedule against a preseason-ranked opponent, No. 20 SMU.
The SEC will tout margin for error on a weekly basis because of its “tremendous depth,” but no one’s lending that benefit to the ACC. Losses for the ACC in these types of games leave almost no at-large path to the playoff.
Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (Sunday, at Lambeau Field)
Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish are preseason darlings, have an ascending star at quarterback in CJ Carr and are beloved by oddsmakers as a team that presently shares the best odds to win Notre Dame’s first national championship since 1988.
The problem for the Irish is that their schedule is filled with too many mid-tier (at best) ACC and Big Ten teams. This Wisconsin squad is the best of that bunch from the Big Ten, and it enters with dozens of new faces while its coach is on one of the hottest seats in America.
Luke Fickell, however, has won big games before and a win for the Badgers here would be both a rising tide and place the Irish in an 11-game playoff to reach the CFP.
No. 20 SMU at Florida State (Monday)
Behind sleeper Heisman candidate Kevin Jennings at quarterback, the Mustangs are eyeing a second trip to the CFP in three years. They will be viewed as wholly unserious if they lose to an FSU team coming off a lethargic 17-point win against New Mexico State after closing 2025 with losses in six of its final eight games.
The Seminoles also desperately need this game; it counts in the ACC standings, of course, but more importantly could (temporarily) quell hot-seat talk surrounding Mike Norvell. He’s gone 8-17 in his past 25 games at the helm. FSU still has road games awaiting at Alabama, Miami, Louisville and Pitt.
Fresno State at No. 14 USC (Friday)
This is more about Matt Entz’s Bulldogs than it is the Trojans.
Fresno State visited this summer with USA TODAY Sports, and Entz believes in the Bulldogs' ability to show up and compete with any team, anywhere.
This game means more to Fresno State, but it’s a game USC cannot lose. Much of the coverage this week hasn't been about the Trojans' Week 0 win over San Jose State, it's CFP hopes or a possible Heisman run for Jayden Maiava. Instead, the focus has been on the fans' no-show last Saturday.
If Fresno State can score the upset, it has a manageable schedule that features Boise State at home before a road trip to rival San Diego State that could go a long way in determining the Pac-12’s top contender and candidate for a Group of Six CFP berth.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The five Week 1 college football games with biggest Playoff impact
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