The Good, the Bad, the Ugly: PAC 12 SP+ Rankings

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The Good, the Bad, the Ugly: 2026 PAC 12 SP+ Football Rankings

We have officially reached the point in the year where premature speculation heats up and college football experts start to make their picks for the upcoming football season. This week, we are going to take a look at Bill Connelly’s famous SP+ Rankings. Connelly’s metrics rank all 138 FBS schools. We will start by focusing on the eight football playing programs of next year’s PAC 12 and next week, we will look at the Mountain West schools and compare how the two conferences stack up.

The Good

Boise State (39)

No surprise here. The Broncos are heavy favorites to win the PAC 12 in these projections, and they are the highest ranked team in the Group of Six by a fairly comfortable margin with UNLV coming in second (59). The SP+ rankings see the Broncos as a balanced team ranking 43rd in offense and 46th in defense. The rushing attack is particularly exciting with two talented running backs returning in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. The Broncos are also one of the only Group of Five teams returning an experienced starter at quarterback, Maddux Madsen. The success of this team will likely come down to how it does in the trenches with a number of new players on both the offensive and defensive lines.

San Diego State (71)

The Aztecs are coming off of a resurgent 2025 football season where they narrowly missed out on playing for a conference championship. According to these rankings, the Aztecs are the current favorite to face the Broncos in the conference championship. Connelly’s metrics expect the Aztecs to be much better on the defensive side of the ball (60th) than the offensive side of the ball (93rd). The offense is a bit of an unknown with a number of new players joining the team via the transfer portal. Will the Aztecs have a competent passing attack this fall? If so, this could be one of the top teams in the Group of Six.

Fresno State (78)

Bold projection here, but I expect the Bulldogs to be ranked much higher by the end of the season. Matt Entz has proven himself to be an elite coach and the growth that the Bulldogs showed in 2025 should be encouraging to the Fresno State fanbase. Similar to the Aztecs, the Bulldogs have questions at the quarterback position, and how that position shakes out will be a key factor to this team’s success. Connelly’s projections anticipate the Bulldogs being much better on the defensive side of the ball (47th) than the offensive side of the ball (105th). If those projections hold true, Fresno State will have one of the top defenses in the Group of Five.

The Bad 

Washington State (85)

Similar to the Bulldogs, I think this number undersells this team. I’m a big Kirby Moore believer and I think his team will exceed expectations. Due to the coaching change, this program had a significant amount of players enter the transfer portal, and returning production is a key metric when ranking these teams. Like the Aztecs and Bulldogs, the Cougars are expected to be better on the defensive side of the ball (61st) than the offensive side of the ball (110th). However, the Cougars have brought in an offensive-minded head coach and brought in a capable quarterback in the transfer portal. I anticipate that offensive ranking will be much higher by the end of the season.

Texas State (89)

The Pac 12’s newest football programs comes in a bit higher than I expected. This ranking is likely because the Bobcats are returning a ton of production from last year’s team. A fifth place finish in next year’s PAC 12 would be a massive win for this program and have them trending in the right direction moving forward. Texas State has the highest ranked offense (26th) in the conference, but is expected to be awful on defense (129th). If those projections prove to be true, we can expect a lot of high scoring contests this fall.

Oregon State (91)

The Beavers are entering a period of uncertainty this fall. They have a new head football coach in JaMarcus Shepherd and have an outgoing athletic director. The struggles of the 2025 football season were unexpected. It will be interesting to see if this new coaching staff can get this team back on track or if this will become a trend for a once proud football program. Connelly’s projections expect the Beavers to be better on defense (74th) than offense (104th). Shepherd has brought in some high-potential transfers on the offensive side of the ball. It will be interesting to see how this team fares this fall. 

The Ugly

Utah State (97)

With Bronco Mendenhall at the helm and the Aggies finally having some continuity on the coaching staff, I expected the team to be ranked quite a bit higher. Evidently the departure of Bryson Barnes and worries about the lack of growth on the defensive side of the ball are playing a role in this ranking. The Aggies coming in at 87 was a bit of a surprise considering what Mendenhall’s offenses have looked like the last few seasons. The defense is still the weakness of this team, coming in at 100. While these rankings are bleak, I expect Mendenhall’s squad to exceed expectations.

Colorado State (99)

The Rams have a new face of the program with Jim Mora Jr. leaving UCONN to take over the head coaching position in Fort Collins. Mora Jr. brings with him a number of transfers from UCONN and a football team that will look much different than it did under the leadership of Jay Norvell. According to Connelly’s projections, the Rams are expected to be solid on the defensive side of the ball (78th) while having one of the worst offenses in the conference (113th). Mora Jr. will get this program on track eventually, but it might take a season or two. So these projections seem fair. But it would surprise me to see the defense struggle and the offense exceed expectations.

PAC 12 Average Ranking: 81.125

How do you feel about the projections for the PAC 12 schools? Is the winner of the PAC 12 the favorite for a playoff spot? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

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