The Iowa game is more than just a must-win for Ohio State

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There is a difference between believing that a football team can improve over the course of a season and actually seeing it.

I spent a lot of time last week arguing that the Buckeyes don’t need to be perfect in September; they just need to be better by November. I still believe that. In fact, I might believe it even more after watching Ohio State beat Illinois while simultaneously reminding us of virtually every concern that we had about them entering the game.

But eventually, “it’s still early” stops being an explanation and starts becoming an excuse, and for this Ohio State team, I think that inflection point begins in Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.

I certainly don’t expect these Buckeyes to be a finished product just seven days after giving up 462 yards of offense to Illinois. But the trip to Iowa City is an incredibly important first checkpoint on Ohio State’s road to reaching its potential. Ryan Day’s team needs to demonstrate that all of this talk about growth, development, and fixing problems is actually producing something tangible on the field.

Obviously, the Buckeyes need to win. After already losing to Texas, a second loss would put Ohio State in a particularly precarious position in both the Big Ten and College Football Playoff pictures. But the stakes for this game feel markedly higher than simply surviving and advancing.

Iowa is the first of five major challenges over Ohio State’s final eight regular-season games, with road trips to Indiana and USC, Oregon coming to Columbus, and, of course, The Game waiting at the end of the regular season. And honestly, after Northwestern pushed Indiana to the brink in a 29-23 loss last week, there are fewer games on this schedule that I am comfortable circling in permanent marker than there were at the start of September.

That means Ohio State’s runway for improvement is getting shorter at precisely the moment the degree of difficulty is increasing.

Coming into the season, when most people talked about Ohio State’s daunting schedule, they focused on Texas, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and even USC, leaving Iowa off that list. But not me. There is no program, besides Ohio State, in the Big Ten that I hold in higher esteem than the Iowa Hawkeyes. You will never hear a bad word escape my lips or read one from my fingers disparaging the program, unless, of course, they rehire Brian Ferentz as offensive coordinator.

His daddy Kirk Ferentz is one of the best coaches in college football at understanding exactly what his program is and refusing to be distracted by what everybody else thinks it should be. And defensive coordinator Phil Parker might be even better at his specific job. Iowa rarely has the recruiting rankings, skill-position firepower, or general collection of freak-level athletes that Ohio State does, but the Hawkeyes almost always play sound, disciplined, infuriatingly competent football.

Unfortunately, they also happen to be particularly good at the exact things that Ohio State has struggled with this season.

Iowa enters Saturday averaging 6.53 yards per rushing attempt, fifth-best nationally. Defensively, the Hawkeyes lead the country by allowing just 8.0 points per game while ranking 10th in total defense at 239.8 yards and 19th against the run at 87.8 yards per game. Opponents are averaging just 2.70 yards per carry against Parker’s defense.

Those numbers would be impressive against anybody, but Iowa has already gone into Ann Arbor and beaten Michigan, 20-19, despite the Wolverines having built their entire offensive identity around running the football. Bryce Underwood did throw for 276 yards against the Hawkeyes, which at least gives Julian Sayin and Ohio State’s passing game something encouraging to work with.

Still, having to establish some semblance of offensive balance while also containing Iowa’s running game does not exactly inspire overwhelming confidence.

Ohio State’s defensive front has struggled to consistently control the line of scrimmage and generate pressure all season. Its running game has too often disappeared when the Buckeyes need two or three yards against quality opponents. And while I have argued that the connection between Sayin and Jeremiah Smith is special enough to be what this team wins on, the offense remains overwhelmingly dependent on the pair.

So, while I would certainly enjoy watching J.J. go for another 200-plus yards and four touchdowns in Kinnick, I think we would all feel more comfortable about the offense if he doesn’t have to.

Can Ohio State establish the running game against one of the best defenses in the country? Can Chris Henry Jr., Brock Boyd, Devin McQuinn, Brandon Inniss, or literally anyone else become a dependable secondary option for Sayin? Can the Buckeyes stay ahead of the chains often enough that Parker can’t spend the afternoon turning third-and-long into a graduate-level exam for Sayin?

Those are the types of questions Saturday needs to begin answering.

The same is true on defense. Ohio State cannot allow Iowa’s rushing attack to control the clock and limit Sayin and Smith’s opportunities. And perhaps most importantly, the Buckeyes’ defensive line needs to affect quarterback Hank Brown because, surprise, Iowa can pass the ball a little bit now too. The Hawkeyes are averaging 32 attempts and more than 20 completions per game. They aren’t exactly the Greatest Show on Turf, but by Iowa standards, Mike Leach might as well be calling plays.

That makes Ohio State’s inability to consistently pressure quarterbacks even more concerning. Iowa has allowed only three sacks through four games, while Brown is completing 68% of his passes and just led a 91-yard game-winning drive at Michigan, throwing the winning touchdown with just two seconds remaining.

In other words, this is not Iowa’s nepo-baby offense from a few years ago that was little more than a national punchline. The Hawkeyes still want to run the ball, play defense, control field position, and make you slowly reconsider every life decision that brought you to Kinnick Stadium in the first place, but now they can actually throw the football when necessary too. That is what makes this weekend such a useful test.

Ohio State does not need to suddenly run for 250 yards, hold Iowa to 1.8 yards per carry, and sack Brown seven times. I don’t expect problems that have persisted for months — and in some cases years — to disappear in a single week. But progress has to look like something — anything, at this point.

Whether it comes through scheme, coaching, execution, effort, or some combination of it all, there needs to be noticeable improvement on Saturday. The Buckeyes need to provide evidence that the problems identified against Texas, Kent State, and Illinois are being addressed rather than merely acknowledged.

Against overmatched opponents, Ohio State could survive its flaws because it was absurdly more talented. Against Illinois, it survived because its stars were good enough to compensate. Against Iowa, we’re going to begin finding out whether those flaws are actually being fixed or merely being survived. Saturday is where the schedule begins asking harder questions, and those questions will only become more difficult as October turns to November.

Ohio State does not need to look like a finished championship squad on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City. But it does need to look at least a little more like one. Because if this team is going to get from where it is now — talented and dangerous, yet obviously flawed — to where it wants to be on Jan. 25 — standing on the field at Allegiant Stadium as confetti rains down and Rece Davis hands Ryan Day another shiny gold trophy — there need to be signs along the way that the transformation is in progress. Saturday is the first real opportunity for the Buckeyes to show us what kind of team they can actually become.

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