'The Runout' preview, prediction for Indiana football Week 12 game against Wisconsin

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BLOOMINGTON — Beating Wisconsin was once a notable achievement for Indiana football.

That won’t be the case this season with the No. 2 Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) going into this weekend’s matchup as a four-touchdown favorite and the programs headed in opposite direction. This game will be more about IU preserving a tentative spot in the Big Ten title game and remaining on track to lock up a bye through the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has instructed his team to ignore the Badgers‘ season-long struggles and focus on the task at hand.

“I think we need to understand that we’re going to get everybody’s best shot,” Cignetti said. “We’re not sneaking up on anyone anymore. We got Iowa’s best shot at Iowa. We got Penn State’s best shot at Penn State. Oregon was obviously a big game on the road, and we’ll get Wisconsin’s best shot. So we’ve got to have a good week of preparation.”

For more on Indiana’s Week 12 matchup, jump into our weekly preview, The Runout, for what stood out during the week, players to watch, a prediction, and more.

Indiana football vs. Wisconsin tale of the tape

When: Saturday, Nov. 15 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Where: Memorial Stadium (56,526), Memorial Stadium, Bloomington
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Indiana -28.5
Series: Wisconsin leads 41-20-2
Last meeting: Indiana beat Wisconsin, 20-14, on Nov. 4, 2023, in Bloomington

Indiana football players to watch vs. Wisconsin

Aiden Fisher, LB: This will likely be Fisher’s final game at Memorial Stadium as one of the players who will be honored before the game for Senior Day. He was limited to a handful of snaps in the last time he played at home after suffering a knee injury in IU’s win over UCLA.

The James Madison transfer deserves a better send off as one of the key voices in the locker room who paved the way for Indiana’s transformation from Big Ten basement dweller to national title contender.

He will likely get a chance to make some impactful plays with IU likely facing a Wisconsin quarterback who hasn’t played very many snaps this season.

Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has used his linebackers this season in those situation to really mess with the opposing quarterback with simulated pressures and blitzing from various angles with the linebackers at the center of that strategy.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Fisher force a turnover for a third straight game.

Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, RB: Indiana’s running game couldn’t build on the standout performance it had against Maryland. The Hoosiers combined for 108 yards (3.5 yards per carry) against Penn State and their struggles in the red zone echoed the problems they had in the opener against Old Dominion.

As good as Fernando Mendoza has been this season, Indiana’s offense is at its best when there’s balance between the run and pass game.

It will be a challenge to get back on track this week going up against a formidable Wisconsin run defense that’s only allowed one 100-yard rusher this season. The Badgers run defense is ranked 25th in the FBS (111.3 yards allowed per game) and they’ve held five opponents to under 100 rushing yards this season.

Kahlil Benson, RT: Benson has showed impressive toughness in recent weeks. He played through an ankle injury he suffered at Maryland — the trainers taped it up and he didn’t miss a snap — and did the same thing against Penn State.

He gutted it out with IU already down one starter on the offensive line, but the bumps and bruises have taken a toll on his mobility. According to Pro Football Focus, he gave up a season-high six quarterback pressures against Penn State, more than any Hoosiers offensive lineman has given up in a single game this season.

While Indiana probably can’t afford to take him out of the lineup to get him the rest he needs with his backup Zen Michalski repping at left guard, Benson can’t be a revolving door on the edge. Mendoza took way too many hits against PSU and that needs to get cleaned up ahead of this weekend.

Indiana football Week 12 Odds and Ends

Musical chairs: Wisconsin’s quarterback situation has been cursed since Fickell took over. He’s started sixth different quarterbacks in three seasons and all three starters he signed out of the portal the Badgers expected to start were lost to injury. This year that was supposed to be Billy Edwards Jr, but he was injured in the team’s second game. Edwards’ backup, Danny O’Neil, suffered multiple injuries this season and was carted off the field in the team’s win over Washington last week. Fickell didn’t name a starter this week with freshman Carter Smith and FCS transfer Hunter Simmons taking first-team reps. “The guy has had a starting quarterback available about 30 percent of the time during his tenure at Wisconsin,” Cignetti said. “That’s tough duty.”

Guard rail: Indiana has started three different offensive linemen in as many weeks at left guard with Adedamola Ajani and Zen Michalski each getting a start in place of an injured Drew Evans. Evans remains out this week — Cignetti hasn’t shared an exact timetable for his return — and it’s unclear which of the backups will get the starting nod against Wisconsin. Ajani made his first career start against Penn State and allowed five quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. “You know, Zen got dinged up in practice a little bit, so Ajani got more work,” Cignetti said. “Zen was able to play in the game but didn’t get the reps during the week. And Ajani played well.”

Polar opposite: Indiana heads into Saturday’s game with the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (44.5 points per game) with 58 touchdowns while Wisconsin ranks No. 134 out of 136 FBS teams in scoring (12.6 points) with 14 touchdowns and dead last in the Power Four. Indiana is averaging 487 yards per game (No. 6 in the FBS) and has put up 400-plus yards in all but three games. Wisconsin is averaging 255.6 yards per game (No. 135) and has only put up more than 300 yards twice this season. One final category that highlights the disparity between the two offenses is explosive plays. The Badgers rank dead last in the FBS with just 17 plays of 20-yards or more while Indiana has the fifth most in the country with 62 of them.

Indiana football stat of the week

18: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza was pressured on 18 of his 36 dropbacks against Penn State. It’s the most pressured allowed in a single game during Curt Cignetti’s tenure and most the program allowed in a single game since a 2022 loss to Michigan when Connor Bazelak was under center. Mendoza had only been pressured on a combined 14 dropbacks in the team’s previous three games. The offensive line also allowed a season-high three sacks against the Nittany Lions.

Indiana football quote of the week

Prediction: Indiana 38, Wisconsin 10

Wisconsin’s quarterback situation explains the team’s horrid offensive production, but Fickell isn’t going to suddenly come up with a magic solution to the problem ahead of this weekend’s matchup against Indiana.

The Badgers head to Bloomington at a huge disadvantage as evidenced by their lopsided losses earlier this season to other top playoff contenders. The Badgers simply don’t have the talent to compete on the offensive side of ball against the Hoosiers.

Fickell’s serviceable defense won’t be able to overcome that even though IU is dealing with key injuries (Drew Evans and Elijah Sarratt) on the offense.

It would be a mild surprise if this game were to be competitive coming out of halftime.

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Everything you need to know about Indiana football vs Wisconsin

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