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The colossal matchup between No. 14 Iowa and No. 5 Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday (2:30 CT, CBS) is almost here. 

The Hawkeyes are heavy underdogs against the Buckeyes, but a win could go a long way toward their push for their first-ever College Football Playoff berth. 

We've provided plenty of information on the matchup all week long, so it's now time for one of your favorite pieces of the week. 

Here are three reasons why Iowa will beat Ohio State – and three reasons it won't.

Why Iowa Will Win 

It gets off to a fast start: This one hasn't been talked about a ton so far, but Iowa's best advantage in this game is going to be its 12th man – the crowd. The atmosphere inside Kinnick Stadium is going to be noisy right from the jump, and it's going to be important for the Hawkeyes to keep it that way. That hasn't been the case for Iowa against Power Four competition so far (it trailed by 10 early against Iowa State and didn't record an offensive touchdown at Michigan until the fourth), but that's probably going to have to change on Saturday. Even a field goal on the opening drive would be very beneficial for the Hawkeyes. 

It exploits Ohio State's struggling run defense: I dove into Ohio State's run defense in film review earlier on Thursday, but the Buckeyes' run defense has been a growing concern, especially after they allowed unranked Illinois to tally 199 yards on the ground last weekend. Ohio State's run defense is only the 11th-best in the Big Ten, but will the Hawkeyes be able to exploit it? They've had their own struggles running the football, averaging just 75.5 yards per game against Iowa State and Michigan. If Iowa can establish the run game and move the ball, it has a great shot to win the game. 

It can force Julian Sayin to make a mistake: Every quarterback Iowa has played this year has been a threat to pick up yards on the ground, but that's not even close to Sayin's m.o. He's a true pocket passer that prefers to take advantage of his talented offensive line, read the defense, and then pick it apart. He's one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country, but he's been known to struggle when under pressure. The Hawkeyes don't blitz very often, but this could be the time to do it. 

Why Iowa Will Lose 

Jeremiah Smith gets going early and often: Iowa isn't going to completely stop Jeremiah Smith. No team in America can, but what the Hawkeyes can't afford to do is let Smith get whatever he wants in this game. There's going to be a big play from Smith at some point, but how often those happen is up to the game plan that defensive coordinator Phil Parker has crafted up. No one will know what that is going to be until this one kicks off, but you can almost guarantee he's smart enough to not employ man-to-man coverage on Smith for the entire game. 

Sayin has all day to throw: Remember when I said Sayin has struggled under pressure? If you don't get to him, he's simply going to carve you up. The third-year has completed 72.2% of his passes this season and threw for nearly 400 yards against Illinois last week. Iowa has struggled to get to the quarterback this year, and it could be in for a long day if it happens again on Saturday. 

It loses the turnover battle: Iowa has been ridiculously good at taking care of the football this year. I don't know the exact statistic, but this has to be one of the cleanest stretches of football to begin a season in the Kirk Ferentz era. The Hawkeyes have committed just one turnover so far, and that was a Jeremy Hecklinski interception in Week 1. There's no reason to believe why Iowa can't hold on to the football against Ohio State, but just one mistake can be enough to lose a game like this. Just look back at the Oregon game last year, which saw the Hawkeyes snap the ball over the punter's head for a safety and fumble in the red zone. 

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HawkeyeRoundtable publisher Brad Schultz has covered the Iowa Hawkeyes since 2023. To send him story ideas, scoops, or criticize his writing, reach him at bradschultz@roundtable.io

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