Three reasons why OU football will and won't beat Alabama in CFP
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OU-Alabama is a virtual pick ‘em.
The betting lines for Friday night’s first-round College Football Playoff game have fluctuated between Sooners by one and a half points to Alabama by one and a half.
In ESPN’s bowl mania contest, 52% of entrants picked OU and 48% picked ‘Bama.
Our sports columnists here at The Oklahoman are also split, despite going with similar scores. Jenni Carlson picked OU 20-16. Joe Mussatto picked Alabama 21-16.
Jenni gives her three reasons why the Sooners will win, and Joe does the same for the Crimson Tide.
Why OU will beat Alabama
1. Brent Venables has had almost three weeks to prepare. The OU head coach is one of college football’s best defensive minds, and the last two times his Sooners faced the Crimson Tide, they completely befuddled the Alabama offense. Three interceptions last season. Three turnovers earlier this season. In both instances, Venables had an off week to prepare. This time, he’s had nearly three weeks. Who knows what surprises he may have cooked up, but I guarantee Venables’ defense is going to have Kalen DeBoer, Ty Simpson and the Alabama offense guessing.
2. John Mateer, R Mason Thomas, Xavier Robinson, others will be as healthy as they’ve been in weeks. The layoff between OU’s last game and Friday’s playoff game could create some rust, but the benefit to players who’ve been banged up should outweigh any downsides. On defense, rush end R Mason Thomas is expected to return and Jayden Jackson is expected to be as fresh as he’s been in months. If Alabama thought the OU front was tough earlier this season, it will be even tougher Friday. But the biggest benefits of rest should be on offense. Tailbacks Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock played hurt much of the final month of the season, so rest should give a shot of energy to the Sooner run game. As big as that could be, quarterback John Mateer getting further away from his broken hand and his surgery may well set him up to have his best game as a Sooner.
3. Ty Simpson is on the Struggle Bus. OU might’ve broken the Alabama quarterback. Before the teams met in Tuscaloosa, Simpson had thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception. Including the Sooners’ win at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Simpson has thrown a combined five touchdowns and four interceptions in four games. That includes two picks against Eastern Illinois(!). What’s more, he completed only 58.3% of his passes in those games. Simpson’s confidence has to be staggered. Advantage, Sooners.
— Jenni Carlson
Why Alabama will beat OU
1. The Crimson Tide outplayed the Sooners in Tuscaloosa. Alabama had 23 first downs to OU’s 12. Alabama outgained OU 406-212. Alabama possessed the ball for nine more minutes than did the Sooners. And yet the Sooners came away with a 23-21 win. How? Alabama committed three turnovers to OU’s zero. The Sooners defense had as many touchdowns as the offense. The only number that matters, of course, is the final score, and this is not meant to take anything away from an outstanding OU win — the best of Brent Venables’ tenure. But if the turnover margin is close, I like ‘Bama’s chances.
2. Ty Simpson is more trustworthy than John Mateer. I get it, the Alabama quarterback was straight up bad in his last two games. Mateer, meanwhile, is coming off one of best games statistically. But Simpson’s full body of work is superior to Mateer’s. Simpson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio: 26/5. Mateer’s: 12/10. That’s what I mean by “trustworthy.” Mateer is a running threat in ways that Simpson is not, but Mateer is also more prone to unforced errors in the pass game.
3. Grover Cleveland was in his second term the last time Alabama lost to a team twice in the same season. With a win, OU will join the 1893 Birmingham Athletic Club — oh what a squad it was — in college football lore. OU leads the all-time series with ‘Bama 5-2-1. The Sooners have won five of the last six meetings. That being said, is OU really going to beat Alabama for a third time in the last 13 months? Are the college football gods really going to allow that? Alabama’s lone win this century against OU came in the College Football Playoff — a 45-34 Orange Bowl game in 2018. Alabama is King of the CFP. OU is O-fer.
— Joe Mussatto
Jenni Carlson: Jenni can be reached at jcarlson@oklahoman.com. Like her at facebook.com/JenniCarlsonOK, follow her at @jennicarlsonok.bsky.social and twitter.com/jennicarlson_ok, and support her work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Why Oklahoma will (and) won’t beat Alabama in College Football Playoff
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