Top Big 12 football games ranked by ESPN SP+ for 2026
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With ESPN’s SP+ rankings out for the upcoming college football season, educated guesses can be made for how good teams are going to be. The Big 12 has five teams in the top 30, and that will make for some fun matchups this season.
Big 12 play can be heart-attack-inducing, given how wild the conference games can be. There will be unexpected results and upsets along the way this year in the conference.
Let’s take a week-by-week look at the best Big 12 games using Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
Week 1: Baylor vs. Auburn in Atlanta (Sept. 5)
SP+ comparison: No. 25 (Auburn) vs. No. 51 (Baylor)
This will hardly be a neutral-site game when Baylor heads to Atlanta to face Auburn. The Bears are hopeful that Florida transfer and former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway can live up to his high school recruiting hype.
Two years at The Swamp saw ups and downs for Lagway, marked by injuries and inconsistent play. He had 28 touchdowns to 24 interceptions in 24 games played at Florida.
Reason to tune in: To see if the change of scenery for Lagway helps him become an elite quarterback.
Week 2: Oregon at Oklahoma State (Sept. 12)
SP+ comparison: No. 2 (Oregon) vs. No. 38 (Oklahoma State)
Last year, it was 69-3 in favor of Oregon. When the Ducks travel to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State, it will be a completely different team. Eric Morris made the move up from North Texas, bringing most of his staff and, most importantly, his offense, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
Winning this game for Oklahoma State will be very difficult, but expect it to be a lot more competitive than last year.
Reason to tune in: Can new Cowboys head coach Eric Morris up-tempo offense make a game of it against Dan Lanning’s Ducks?
Week 3: Houston at Texas Tech (Sept. 18)
SP+ comparison: No. 36 (Houston) vs. No. 7 (Texas Tech)
All Willie Fritz does is win. He led the Cougars to a surprise 10-3 season in 2025, Houston’s second double-digit-win season since 2016.
The Cougars bring back a lot on offense, with quarterback Conner Weigman, who had his best season ever, and their leading receiver, Amare Thomas. Houston also fortified its backfield via the transfer portal with former Oregon and Tulane running back Makhi Hughes.
Reason to tune in: With this game being moved to a Friday night, will we see commissioner Brett Yormark and Texas Tech mega-booster meet face-to-face? The two had a back-and-forth over this game, which moved to Friday night.
Week 4: Kansas State at Cincinnati (Sept. 26)
SP+ comparison: No. 29 (Kansas State) vs. No. 50 (Cincinnati)
Kansas State has a new head coach with Chris Klieman stepping down. It comes down to Collin Klein, who was the offensive coordinator for Kansas State from 2022-23 but spent the last two years calling the offense for Texas A&M, which reached the College Football Playoff last year.
Scott Satterfield is on the hot seat, with a 15-22 record as the Cincinnati head coach. That is why the Bearcats made several changes to their coaching staff, bringing in Nate Woody from Army to run the defense, and promoting Nic Cardwell and Pete Thomas to co-offensive coordinator duties.
Reason to tune in: Anything can happen with Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson under center.
Week 5: BYU at TCU (Oct. 3)
SP+ comparison: No. 18 (BYU) vs. No. 34 (TCU)
TCU is going through a lot of changes on offense. They are losing three-year starter Josh Hoover to Indiana, and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles is moving on to South Carolina. Head coach Sonny Dykes might be fine replacing Hoover, as he threw him under the bus for the number of turnovers.
The Horned Frog offense will be moving toward a more run-heavy attack. That is likely to help their new quarterback, Jaden Craig, who is transferring in from Harvard.
Last year’s game was not even close, as BYU routed TCU 44-13.
Reason to tune in: How will Craig perform against an elite defense that BYU brings to the table? This is a big upgrade from playing against Ivy League programs.
Week 6: Houston at Kansas State (Oct. 10)
SP+ comparison: No. 36 (Houston) vs. No. 29 (Kansas State)
New running back Makhi Hughes is arguably the biggest question mark on the field in this game. He has a ton of talent and rushed for 2,779 yards and 22 scores while at Tulane, but his one-year stint at Oregon did not go over well. Hughes is now with Houston, reunited with his old coaches, Willie Fritz and offensive coordinator Slade Nagle.
Reason to tune in: This matchup is a dark-horse Big 12 title game. Both are in the top 40 of SP+ and have experienced quarterbacks who can make plays with Wildcats Avery Johnson and Cougars Conner Weigman slinging the ball.
Week 7: Notre Dame at BYU (Oct. 17)
SP+ comparison: No. 3 (Notre Dame) at No. 18 (BYU)
After years of trying to get Notre Dame to BYU, the Cougars have the Irish playing in Provo. This game was a necessity for Notre Dame after its series against USC ended. Expected a wild crowd in this religious matchup, but on the field, it features two top-tier quarterbacks with Bear Bachmeier for the Cougars and C.J. Carr for the Fighting Irish.
Despite Notre Dame losing running back Jeremiyah Love to the NFL Draft, the Irish return the most experienced team in FBS. That will be a challenge for a BYU defense that has a new defensive coordinator.
Reason to tune in: How does BYU’s new defensive coordinator, Kelly Poppinga, handle an experienced Notre Dame quarterback? Plus, a win here for the Cougars will help elevate them into clear at-large playoff positioning if they don’t win the Big 12.
Week 8: Houston at Utah (Oct. 24)
SP+ comparison: No. 36 (Houston) vs. No. 25 (Utah)
Utah has seemingly owned the tight end position, with multiple players posting big years and making names for themselves in the NFL, including Dalton Kincaid. The starter at the position was to be Dallen Bentley, but he followed Kyle Whittingham to Michigan.
Now, the position is being left up to promising but young players like Hunter Andrews. He is coming back from a season-ending injury, which is a concern. The Utes hit the portal, adding Noah Bennee (Weber State) and Will Monney (Oklahoma State).
Reason to tune in: Will either of these teams repeat as surprise double-digit win teams from a year ago?
Week 9: Arizona at Texas Tech (Oct. 31)
SP+ comparison: No. 30 (Arizona) vs. No. 7 (Texas Tech)
Last year, Texas Tech lost a key offensive player before the season even started. Former USC running back Quinten Joyner suffered a knee injury in an August scrimmage and sat out the season. The good news is that he is ready to go, and even better news for the Red Raiders is that reps given to Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams will make that position even stronger, with all three in the lineup for 2026.
This has the potential to be a Big 12 championship game and also a Halloween shootout.
Arizona returns experienced QB Noah Fifita for his fifth year, but more importantly, he has the same offensive coordinator in back-to-back years for the first time in college with Seth Doege back to run the Air Raid offense.
Texas Tech’s defense is undergoing a bit of a makeover, with David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez no longer on the roster. Filling those holes will be tough.
Reason to tune in: To find out if Brent Brennan can take Arizona to the next level to be a Big 12 title contender.
Week 10: BYU at Utah (Nov. 7)
SP+ comparison: No. 18 (BYU) vs. No. 25 (Utah)
For the first time since 2005, Kyle Whittingham will not be on the headset as the Utes head coach in this rivalry game. Things will look different with Morgan Scalley as head coach, but not really. Scalley is a former All-American safety for the Utes and coached his entire career in Salt Lake City.
The Cougars have been on the winning end of this series over the past few years and bring back the talent to make it four in a row, with running back L.J. Martin leading the way. Plus, the BYU defense should have one of the best linebacker groups around. They have Isaiah Glasker and Siale Esera returning, and the arrival of Cade Uluave from Cal. That position should be stacked.
Reason to tune in: It is the Holy War; there is not much to say, but the real reason is to see if BYU can win its fourth straight over Utah for the first time since the Cougars achieved that feat from 1989-92.
Week 11 Utah at Arizona (Nov. 14)
SP+ comparison: No. 25 (Utah) vs. No. 30 (Arizona)
Can new Utah offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven keep the high-scoring offense going that the Utes managed to achieve last year? McGiven comes from Utah State, which was explosive and second in the Mountain West in scoring.
McGiven is also familiar with Arizona head coach Brett Brennan, as the two worked together at San Jose State.
Reason to tune in: Points. This game has the potential to be an epic shootout, as both teams are capable of running up the numbers. Utah was first at 41 points per game, leading the Big 12, and Arizona was third at 31 per game.
Week 12: Texas Tech at Baylor (Nov. 21)
SP+ comparison: No. 7 (Texas Tech) vs. No. 51 (Baylor)
Jake Spavital is the new Bears offensive coordinator after a one-year stint at Cal, which wasn’t great. The 2026 Baylor offense has a new look.
Spavital does get former five-star QB DJ Lagway, who comes in from Florida to restart his career. The wide receiver group welcomes a slew of transfers in Gavin Freeman from Oklahoma State, Hardley Gilmore IV of Kentucky, and Dre’Lon Miller out of Colorado.
Reason to tune in: There very well could be a new head coach on the sideline for Baylor if Dave Aranda struggles in Waco.
Week 13: Texas Tech at TCU (Nov. 28)
SP+ comparison: No. 7 (Texas Tech) vs. No. 34 (TCU)
TCU’s defense took a big hit, especially at the linebacker position. First-team All-Big 12 star Kaleb Elarms-Orr and three-year starter Namdi Obiazor are off to the NFL. This means a new leader needs to step up, and it looks to be redshirt junior Max Carroll. The portal was needed as well, with Virginia Tech Michael Short and Michael Teason, a former Missouri State transfer who played in 12 games last season.
Reason to tune in: Tech’s schedule is super soft, so there is a chance this game could set them up to finish the regular season 12-0.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Ranking Big 12 football games 2026 by ESPN SP+
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