TST Best Bets: October 3, 2026

TST Best Bets: October 3, 2026

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TST Best Bets: October 3, 2026
Sep 26, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor (1) runs the ball as Missouri Tigers linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. (0) attempts to make the tackle during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Sep 26, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor (1) runs the ball as Missouri Tigers linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. (0) attempts to make the tackle during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.

Mississippi State gets a chance to show how far it has come Saturday, welcoming No. 7 Alabama to Starkville for a matchup of unbeaten SEC teams. Kamario Taylor has helped turn the No. 16 Bulldogs into an early surprise, but keeping up with the Crimson Tide will be their biggest test yet.

Over in the Big Ten, No. 14 Iowa returns home after its dramatic win at Michigan to face No. 6 Ohio State. The Hawkeyes will lean on their defense again, this time trying to slow down Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith.

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First Pick: Mississippi State vs. Alabama – Over 63.5

Rundown: Mississippi State has the offense to make Alabama work for this one. Kamario Taylor already has 14 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, giving me confidence the Bulldogs can contribute enough points at home to push this total over.

Alabama has reached 45 points in every game, so Mississippi State will likely need to keep throwing to stay within reach. That should give Taylor plenty of opportunities while keeping the pressure on both defenses.

The Bulldogs haven't been held below 31 points either, and I'm backing these quarterbacks to keep moving the ball. With both offenses playing this well, give me over 63.5.

Second Pick: Iowa vs. Ohio State – Under 45.5

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) catches a touchdown over Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Tywan Cox (32) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 26, 2026.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) catches a touchdown over Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Tywan Cox (32) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 26, 2026.

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) catches a touchdown over Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Tywan Cox (32) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 26, 2026.

Rundown: Iowa's best chance here is to make Ohio State earn its points through long drives. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 16 points per game against their two Power Four opponents, and I'm trusting that defense to limit the Buckeyes' scoring opportunities at home.

I have less confidence in Iowa's ability to put up points itself. The Hawkeyes averaged only 18 points in those same games, leaving plenty of reason to expect their offense to struggle again Saturday.

Jeremiah Smith will be tough to contain, but Iowa doesn't need to completely shut him down for this under to cash. A few stalled Ohio State possessions should be enough if the Hawkeyes have trouble reaching the end zone themselves.

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