UC Davis Needs Win at Montana State to Keep Big Sky Title Hopes Alive

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When the ESPN camera crews set up for this Saturday night’s nightcap in Bozeman, they will be on hand for not only arguably the biggest game of this weekend’s slate in the FCS but the biggest game of the season for the UC Davis Aggies. Coming in at 5-1 in Big Sky play, only two teams sit above them in the conference championship race and one of them just so happens to be the group they’ll be lining up against. #3 Montana State boasts a perfect 6-0 league record meaning that if the #9 Aggies want any chance at taking the hardware home, they will need to find a way to get by the Bobcats.

Tim Plough’s team found itself in a very similar position at this time last year but, try as they might in their own building down in Davis, they could not stave off MSU who ended up winning the trophy in 2024. This time around the Big Sky championship cannot be won in this game but it can certainly be lost by UC Davis if they don’t win. Beating Montana State, though, is not an easy feat and if Plough’s team is going to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss and do it, it will need be at its very best.

The Bobcats defense is one of the best in the country, currently allowing just 16.1 points per game (and that’s with a 46-point loss at Oregon skewing the numbers). Opponents average 102.9 rush yards and 193.8 passing yards per contest this year. No team has scored more than 17 points in regulation against the ‘Cats defense this year and, on average, they are winning games by a 40-point margin. Over the last two weeks, they’ve outscored their opposition 121-21. Essentially, Montana State is firing on all cylinders right now.

As daunting as all those numbers may be, UC Davis is no slouch on either side of the ball either and they have some guys who know how to make things happen. Redshirt freshman Caden Pinnick has been a phenom for the Aggies offense this year and has risen onto the scene in just the way they needed him to after losing Miles Hastings after last year. Pinnick is completing throws at a 70.8% clip and has tossed 20 touchdowns this year. He’s also ran for 237 yards and three scores. His dual-threat abilities are a real problem for defenses and he’ll need to utilize his whole wheelhouse to try and give that MSU unit fits.

Pinnick’s speed and QB prowess can only take the Aggies so far, though. He’ll need the entire crew around him to step up as well, starting with his offensive line and receivers. The UC Davis front has not been the best when it comes to protecting Pinnick. Opponents have logged 23 sacks this year and, against standouts like Kenneth Eiden IV and Zac Crews on the Montana State defensive line, that just won’t get it done. If Pinnick doesn’t have time in the pocket then it is going to be a long, long night.

He will also need help from his pass-catchers and running backs. Jordan Fisher has been the feature back out of the backfield this year and he’s been a good one, rushing for 787 yards on 123 attempts. Fisher has four touchdowns this year as well. He and Carter Vargas will be the ones meeting that Bobcats defense head on and they’ll need to find a way to break through.

Receivers like Samuel Gbatu Jr. and Stacy Dobbins could very well be the ones that decide this game. While the sledding may tough on the ground, it might be a little smoother through the air. Gbatu leads the team right now with 742 receiving yards and eight scores while Dobbins is right behind him with 416 yards and two TDs. Both average well over ten yards per reception and have been the top two targets for Pinnick this season. They will go against an MSU secondary led by Caden Dowler who was last week’s Big Sky Defensive Player of the Week. For all they do well, though, the ‘Cats have been known to give up big plays on the back end and that will be what the Aggies need to exploit if things get muddied up in the run game.

On the other side of the ball, the UC Davis defense will need to contend with guys like quarterback Justin Lamson and running backs Julius Davis and Adam Jones. All three have been instrumental in Montana State’s success this year with Lamson having thrown for 2,026 yards along with 18 touchdowns and the pair of backs having rushed for a combined 1,302 yards and 15 scores. Receiver Taco Dowler is also a key playmaker and all of them have contributed greatly to an offense that puts up 450.1 yards and 38.9 points per game.

What really doesn’t help the Aggies is the fact that one of their best defensive pieces in safety Rex Connors has been lost to the season with injury. In his place, guys like Khalani Riddick and Jayden Stanley have had to step up. Riddick leads the unit with 50 tackles and has seven pass breakups while Stanley has 49 stops. Each also has an interception this season. They will have a tall task, too, on Saturday night.

Essentially, UC Davis faces a tall order all around this weekend. Mathematically they need to pull off the upset if they want any shot at the Big Sky crown. However, a loss will not eliminate them from playoff consideration at all. If they handle business in the finale against Sacramento State on November 22, the Aggies should be in no matter what happens against MSU. This game, though, has a whole awful lot riding on it and could really shake things up at the top if they can pull it off. Pinnick and company are a talented bunch and Saturday will show just how talented they truly are.

The Aggies and the Bobcats have a late 10:15 PM (ET) kickoff on Saturday. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

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